That reminds me, how's the 2021 census going to happen?
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Answering my own question in the OP
I expect political unionism to accept the reality of steadily and maybe sharply reduced support leading to the divorce then uneasy cohabitation with some feisty Colleen. They'll (hopefully) be well enough organised to negotiate a deal with Dublin, London, Brussels, Kamala Harris etc
And then longer term- an influential bloc in the Dail, maybe effective local autonomy?
Paramilitarism- hard to say but I am fairly pessimistic. Orange Order, Rangers fans etc will likely take a lead from the balaclava boys
Looking Down South I'll offer just one stat. The Republic will be asked to take on an extra 40% population. Daunting whatever the proportion that's uncooperative or even hostile...Comment
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I recall reading some research a few years' back that basically said in Scotland, the more left wing you were, the more you self-described as Scottish than British, and in England, it was British rather than English. That might have changed since then, mind.
I used to go on fishing trips around the Highlands and would look at the guest books in Hotels, especially where they went back nearly 100 years, and what was telling was that people who lived in Scotland all used British as a descriptor of nationality until about 1930, when Scottish started to creep in, becoming dominant by the end of the war, and the overwhelming majority by the early 1960s. By contrast, people with English addresses described themselves as English until the post-war era, where British takes over.
(they also show that no-one used the guestbook to leave a review of the joint until the early 1980s)Comment
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I had in my mind that we weren't going to have another census but it appears that it's due on 21st March. I guess it'll be done online as much as possible.Originally posted by Gangster Octopus View Post
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Duncan Gardner on the Tories in Rump England, aren't the seat projections (assuming FPTP) much greater than their vote share?
I have a vague recollection of hearing something close to 2/3 of a Rump England Commons.Comment
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Is some sort of condominium at all possible? It might serve as a way of persuading the more intransigent unionists to accept southern rule while easing the transition.Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
Failing that is it time to dust off Ruairi O' Bradaigh's Eire Nua?Comment
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Re the Dail, based on population, NI would be entitled to 18 4-seat constituencies, so based on recent results, that would give unionism roughly 30 seats out of 232 - whether they could campaign on a united ticket remains to be seen, but places in Cabinet would be theirs should they wish to take them, and Martin has been open to retaining Stormont, at least in the interim. Agree everyone bar SF is willing to leave well enough alone until the political climate North of the Border is significantly calmer.Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View PostComment
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laverte Did Parker's relationship with Eva Longoria add to his reputation in France or did it fail to register?
Desperate Housewives was huge over here for a while, and that brought him to the attention of a completely different demographic, but I don't know to what extent that may have applied in France.Comment
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I've only been to NI twice and the politics of it I've seldom discussed with the NI people I've worked with (whose background has been either Catholic or Protestant but who didn't practice). But I'll give it ago... I think you have answered your own question as I'd see it. I think both sides will always have their balaclava lots and they'll never be placated. But I think its realistic to assume that the USA will always have a strong Irish lobby (stronger than mainland UK I think) and that will not want any return to the troubles and that Brexit - and I'm admittedly seeing this from Bristol not Belfast - is a changer in relationships with the mainland UK for all sides, and has potential to rally Republican causes and with that risk, I do see it being what you say could be an uneasy cohabitaition, with Washington and Brussels assuming close to the same power in the relationship as that vested in London and Dublin.Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
But your last point is one that I oftern think about but never see in debates - does the Repbulic want to assume NI as a whole and have London out of the equation? I cannot imagine it would. As you say its a lot of extra people, a lot of extra problems (not all linked to politics) and I suspect the pre-Brexit deal suited them as perfectly as anything could.
On the census, I swear I've seen, er, opinion polls saying something like 20% of NI don't identify themselves as either side as such and if that's the case, then it'd be interesting to know how they might feel about a shift toward Dublin or other.
And Neferitti2 point on how stoking up problems in Scotland and NI may well suit the Hard Right factions of our govt agenda is an interesting one - certainly the "wannabe" ballaclava lots of the England away support when I travelled (who are more representitive of the population than people would want to admit) could barley go 5mins without belting out 'No Surrender' or similar and I've no doubt they'd become even more supportive of the current Tory party if the problems even hint at returning - it would suit some agendas.Last edited by super furry dice; 05-01-2021, 19:43.Comment
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Between de facto economic unity, and the North-South Ministerial Council, the material for such a status already exists, though an all-island approach to managing Covid has been sadly lacking.Originally posted by Bizarre Löw Triangle View PostComment
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Could a Scotland-NI-Ireland confederation within the EU ever be a thing? It would take a lot of sting out of Loyalism, possibly? One foreign policy, three police forces sort of arrangement.Comment
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You've already got Visegrad, Benelux and the Nordic Council within the bloc, so certainly plausible.Originally posted by sw2borshch View PostComment
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I've never identified as English, rarely as British. Now I'm increasingly proud to be a citizen of nowhere (or at least in a state of mutual rejection between me and England)Comment
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I'm British by bureaucracy but haven't felt even a tiny bit Brit for about twenty years. I'm not sure I identify as Irish either but really really have to get that passport now. It'll be a good while yet before the Scottish Free State has a useful passport of its own.Comment
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My version of this (living in Oz) is similar, yet different.Originally posted by Toby Gymshorts View Post
I get asked “what is your background” 3 times a week, and although I think it’s intended in a decent way, it’s really tedious. I look like I’m Italian so people hope I’ll say just that (or Greek, if I’m in Kingsford or Marrickville), but when I say “Scotland” I get stunned silence. If I’m in a mood, I’ll say “but ethnically I’m Jewish so that’s why I look like this.” But that makes it even weirder b/c nobody in Oz knows anything about that sort of thing.
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Trust me, if there were ever any need to identify as "authentically" Irish, there wouldn't be plenty of Germans and Dutch living on the Munster Riveira, so the Irish nationality is very much of the flexible variety, and you've certainly earned a claim at this stage!Originally posted by Lang Spoon View PostComment
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"Best (hideously drunk but ingratiating) fans in tha wurruld alliance". Though the Nordies will have to watch the songs they sing.Last edited by Lang Spoon; 05-01-2021, 22:38.Comment
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ursus arctos indeed, the Tories won 65% of English seats in 2019, with 49% of vote share if you include the Farage tribute act
@Bizarre if there's to be local govt reform in NI post divorce I think Unionists would lobby for the local Councils they run (currently 6 of 11) to have real clout
Diable Rouge an organised unionist' bloc with 10-15% support could have real influence in the Dail. I broadly agree with MeHole but he'll be long gone before much happens
Ps as we've discussed before all constituencies should be of similar size and have exactly the same number of seats. Anything else is a gerrymander
Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 05-01-2021, 22:16.Comment
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I’m 57 and have always thought of myself as Scottish and referred to my self as Scottish. I have never felt at all British as to me British equates to English.Comment
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super furry dice while American Democrats may be more interested in Ireland than their English equivs, is that really much more than 40 shades of green clich?d blarney?
Lang Spoon the current GAWA songbook is little different from other teams'. You are my Sunshine, No Limits, Winter Wonderland. Oh and Battle Hymn of the Not Brazilians (lyrics by my old school chum Stuart)Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 05-01-2021, 22:32.Comment
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Ugh Dunc you've reminded me of the almost footage free piss poor Rte doc on Johnny Cash in Oireland in 63. Some auld wifie who almost saw him in Rush till he cancelled cos speed comedown and culchie post Emergency North County Dublin being woeful, a blowhard talkin about how the Irish feel country music in their soul and other classic moments. Must be tough making telly in Covid.
I don't think Biden or Congress will tolerate any fucking with the GFA, and Biden seems personally invested, but it's not like there's an Irish voting bloc over there now so as long as bombs don't go off the attention will be minimal.Comment
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Youse might want yer ain tune to March onto the pitch with rather than GSTQ, though I'd rather that than fucking Coulter's Call.Comment
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Agreed- I was suggesting that while Boden and Pelosi obviously weren't always doddery old sentimentalists, they probably are now
So, the man in black
I hear that train coming, it's rolling round the turn
And I ain't seen the sunshine, since I left Lisburn
Stuck in Long Kesh prison, time keeps dragging on
And that train still ever rolling
All through the fucking Ardoyne
When I was just a wean, my granny told me 'Hey!'
'Always be a good boy, don't join the UDA'
But I stole a car in Drumbo, just to take a joyride
Now I hear that prison whistle, I got 3 years insideComment
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