CDU leadership election

[Discordant Resonance]

4 seats short, currently, but the SDP and Greens are flipping some unexpected constituencies, including Merkel's own.

[Sheep]

Except that they will almost certainly win some East German constituencies, which means that even if they fell below the 5% threshold, the Bundestag would expand to accommodate them.

That's a very tiny comfort though, since the 5% hurdle would wipe out the bulk of their seats.

The SSW illustrates a peculiarity of the German system: since they formally represent the Danish and Frisian minorities in Germany, they are exempt from the 5% threshold. So if they get enough votes for a seat, they get a seat. They were only on the ballot in Schleswig-Holstein, where they may have gathered enough.

Current polls forecast 730/740 seats in the new parliament*, and 299 of those are Direktmandate. So the SSW needs one of every 431/441 votes to get a non-Direktmandat seat. A party not formally representing a minority (such as Die Linke) would require one of every 20 votes to get a non-Direktmandat seat, and then they immediately jump to 22.

*the Überhangmandate make it impossible to know the exact number at this point.

[Sheep]

So there could be a Red Green Red coalition then?

Adds up to 362 where 366 would be needed, so numbers would need to shift. But it's really close, so it may not be impossible.

[Discordant Resonance]

Die Linke now below 5%, and need three constituency wins to circumvent this:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1442240035600932866

[ursus arctos]

Sheep with the knowledge hammer.

Ausgezeichnet

[Sheep]

That's a very tiny comfort though, since the 5% hurdle would wipe out the bulk of their seats.

With apologies to DR, it turns out I was wrong about this. The system is even freakier than I thought. If a party gets at least three Direktmandate, they get their allocated seats anyway, even if it's only 4% of the Zweitstimmen. You get your proportional representation if you're first past some posts. What nonsense.

[Sheep]

Sheep with the knowledge hammer.

Ausgezeichnet

Dankeschön. I feel a bit sheepish about the lack of hammer precision though. But at least the SSW story was correct.

[Discordant Resonance]

And with wins in Leipzig and Berlin x 2, the question is now moot.

[ursus arctos]

In 2017, their third best Direktmandate was with about a third of the vote.

They may not get three

[Discordant Resonance]

Apparently, Laschet mightn't be elected himself, as he's losing his own constituency, and the CDU are struggling for any list seats in NRW.

[ursus arctos]

Hammers are imprecise by nature

Im surprised by the Leipzig win In 2017, they win that constituency by 0.7 percentage points

[Sheep]

Apparently, Laschet mightn't be elected himself, as he's losing his own constituency, and the CDU are struggling for any list seats in NRW.

This would be very funny indeed, although it would just mean that a single CDU Direktmandatwinner needs to voluntarily step down from parliament for the seat to roll over to the next candidate of the CDU, which would be Laschet. Details here.

[tee rex]

How long into the night do they go? Are they sensible (go to bed and start again in the morning) or traditional British count-till-you-drop (albeit with more variations these days)?

[Sheep]

How long into the night do they go? Are they sensible (go to bed and start again in the morning) or traditional British count-till-you-drop (albeit with more variations these days)?

I do not know this, but thank you for the reminder that I too really need to hit the hay.

[ursus arctos]

Spiegel have a neat little coalition widget that shows that all of the following are currently possible

Kenya - SPD, CDU/CSU, Green
Germany - SPD, CDU/CSU, FDP
Traffic Light - SPD, FDP, Green
Jamaica - CDU/CSU, FDP, Green
Grand - SPD, CDU/CSU

[ursus arctos]

ZDF's last estimates were at 1:18 am German time (more than 90 minutes ago)

ARD's were before midnight

Each had an SPD/Green/Linke coalition short of a majority by about five seats

I think we assume that things will pick up in the morning

[ad hoc]

Spiegel have a neat little coalition widget that shows that all of the following are currently possible

Kenya - SPD, CDU/CSU, Green
Germany - SPD, CDU/CSU, FDP
Traffic Light Benin - SPD, FDP, Green
Jamaica - CDU/CSU, FDP, Green
Grand Albania - SPD, CDU/CSU

Fixed that for you

[DCI Harry Batt]

How long into the night do they go? Are they sensible (go to bed and start again in the morning) or traditional British count-till-you-drop (albeit with more variations these days)?

WOAH there! Sensible? What's sensible about delaying the result? I love an overnighter, me.

[Janik]

That waiting a few hours won’t change the outcome, and it doesn’t demand people work very unsociable times?

[DCI Harry Batt]

You lot and your "workers' rights" nonsense.

(I mean, yeah, obvs. It's a funny old fixation we have here, isn't it?)

[ad hoc]

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1442358616703397902

[ursus arctos]

It is quite weird to see vast swathes of very rural Bayern and B-W referred to as the "industrial South"

Just as it is to omit any mention of religion

[ad hoc]

Indeed. That "industrial" bit surprised me too.

[G-Man]

That stat that the under 34s were voting in higher numbers for the Greens and the FDP than for the CDU or SPD is a bit worrying for the traditional big two. Why any young person would want to vote for the FDP is beyond me. Or maybe not. If you're young and CDU-minded, but don't like the CDU, then the CDU-in-fröhlichen-colours is an option.

But the SPD and CDU need to address the problem of most of their votes coming from people who remember them being the Volksparteien.

[G-Man]

Did I read correctly that the SPD candidate who won Merkel's seat is 27 years old? Was she even born when Merkel first took the seat?