CDU leadership election

[Flynnie]

This guy is and will always be the winner of bad politician names: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiny_Kox

[Discordant Resonance]

For amateur psephologists:

https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1437766263745490963

[G-Man]

Why would the number of MPs increase?

[ursus arctos]

He explains it in the thread as a result of the operation of the rules on Überhangmandate given the disconnect between the CSU's constituency and list results implied by the poll.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Nice nerding. Overhang is exciting. We ignore it here, where relevant systems are used, I think.

[Duncan Gardner]

Wolfgang Overhang

[Discordant Resonance]

Foreign policy positions of the major parties:

[ursus arctos]

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

ha ha ha!

[ursus arctos]

It does rather look like she has dismembered her rivals, which is one way that one could characterise her leadership

[sw2borshch]

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1440982634096701442?s=19

[ursus arctos]

That is indeed something.

He won in 94 with 54 percent, one point down from the prior election.

The constituency (a largely rural district roughly between Dortmund and Kassel) has never been represented by any party other than the CDU.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

It's just a reminder that germans have at least 15 million privately held firearms.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So what's the deal with results? Do they come out quickly, or what?

[Discordant Resonance]

They're released at 5 p.m. our time, and will be published live here.

[Nocturnal Submission]

So, voting ends in less than two hours time with exit polls out almost immediately. Should be fascinating.

Bit of a shame that there hasn't been more discussion on here, especially given the number of German posters on the board.

[Etienne]

First results at 6 UK time, but will take all evening to take shape.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Ta all.

I spotted elsewhere an old poll, from April - the eve of poll poll of polls numbers were very similar, except with a massive shift from Greens to SPD (SPD 13 to 26, Greens 28 to 16).

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

is there postal voting and/or proxy voting in German elections? Otherwise, with those short polling hours, shift worker voters could be a bit shafted. Really jars to me, what with being used to ancient long standing UK practice of polls being open 7am to 10pm. (Obvs. great for foreigners just keen to hear results soon.)

[DCI Harry Batt]

Even here, many fewer people have work commitments to juggle on a Sunday. My understanding is that that's even more the case in Germany.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Sure, both those points (being Sunday in general and being Sunday in Germany in particular) will reduce the scale of the issue, but there will still be some adversely affected. Hospital weekend shifts for medical staff etc.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Postal voting was about 28% of votes last time out. I don't think there are restrictions on who can vote by post.

[G-Man]

I'm hoping that the SPD will lead a government, but after 2016 I take nothing for granted. But if Scholz wins, he'll be the fourth SPD chancellor. All three before him were from the north -- Brandt was born in Lübeck, Schmidt was from Hamburg, Schröder made his life in Lower-Saxony after moving to Göttingen as a student (he was born in northern Westphalia). Scholz was born in Osnabrück, in Lower Saxony and grew up in Hamburg.

Alas, not all northerner SPD candidates win elections. Peer Steinbrück from Hamburg lost in 2013. Perhaps he jinxed it by having moved to Northrhine-Westphalia.

Here's another bizarre statistic. Eight of the SPD's 14 candidates for chancellor have had surnames beginning with S. Here's hoping that after tonight, the number of successful candidates among them will ruse to three.

[Nocturnal Submission]

[DCI Harry Batt]

Looks like the CDU/CSU slightly higher than the poll of polls, can't really see where from though.