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    Germany has just suspended AZ too

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      Chile has started storming up the vaccination charts, and has now delivered 34.48 doses per 100 population, the 4th highest rate in the world behind Israel, UAE and UK.

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        We've administered around 336 million doses of vaccine worldwide, equivalent to about 4.27% of the world population, if everyone needed only one dose.

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          UK vaccination programme to ramp up this week: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56407251

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            Originally posted by Gangster Octopus View Post
            Congratulations!
            Thanks. Actually, I'm not sure if that's the right title - my daughter's fianc?e's parents. Are they pending in-laws? Anyway, given the wedding has been covided off twice now, I have a feeling they might just decide to spend the money on a really good holiday when they can.

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              Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
              Chile has started storming up the vaccination charts, and has now delivered 34.48 doses per 100 population, the 4th highest rate in the world behind Israel, UAE and UK.
              I have a friend who moved to chile to be with her fella, and we were discussing this. The Chilean Govt made a hames of dealing with covid when it arrived and the conservative govt was facing what looked like a creeping uprising when the whole lockdown happened. So they went all in on vaccines, to the extent that they allowed various companies to test their vaccines in chile, on chileans, which pushed them right up the list for getting their hands on the early production of vaccines. They ordered 90 million vaccines for a country with only 18 million people, and 54 million of those vaccines are coming from China (do the words Monroe doctrine mean nothing to these people?) Chile has a well developed civil defence infrastructure, and vaccine infrastructure, so they are able to horse out these vaccines at an enormous rate, but the key to it is that they got to the top of the queue, and managed to lay their hands on most of the vaccines that are being delivered to south america.

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                https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1371477530264408066

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                  Tanzania has still not granted any licences for importing vaccines. And we still don't know where the President is - he's been missing since 27/2.

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                    I don't understand the cost/benefit logic, or risk analysis, behind the decisions to suspend vaccinations. You have on the one hand, a set of certain deaths resulting from non-vaccination, and, on the other, a set of symptoms that seem no higher than would occur normally so cannot be shown to result from the vaccine.

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                      Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
                      They took the whole Chickasaw Nation
                      Offered all a vaccination
                      Now Dublin's suspended OAZ
                      The day after a jab for me
                      Flew in from Miami for an OAZ
                      Chickasaw would see me right
                      No obvious symptoms for me thankfully
                      Except my arm that throbbed all night.

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                        Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                        I don't understand the cost/benefit logic, or risk analysis, behind the decisions to suspend vaccinations. You have on the one hand, a set of certain deaths resulting from non-vaccination, and, on the other, a set of symptoms that seem no higher than would occur normally so cannot be shown to result from the vaccine.
                        It's a product of blame culture. If a government approves a vaccine (or doesn't suspend it if there are doubts) that government is to some extent more culpable for subsequent deaths than they are for deaths from Covid which they could do little about. It's fucking mad, but that's what it's about.

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                          Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                          I don't understand the cost/benefit logic, or risk analysis, behind the decisions to suspend vaccinations. You have on the one hand, a set of certain deaths resulting from non-vaccination, and, on the other, a set of symptoms that seem no higher than would occur normally so cannot be shown to result from the vaccine.
                          There's more to it. I think this summarized most of the arguments quite well. Samples from that article:

                          Originally posted by The Guardian
                          One [factor] is that nobody can rule out very rare side-effects on the basis of trials involving tens of thousands of people. There was such an issue during the swine flu pandemic of 2009. It was afterwards found that one in 55,000 jabs with a vaccine called Pandemrix caused the sleeping disorder narcolepsy in children. About 100 people in the UK are thought to suffer from the condition, which causes them to fall asleep without warning during the day.
                          This is just an extra scientific argument for being extra careful, putting a specific incident to the general principle I pointed out above.

                          Originally posted by The Guardian
                          And governments, unlike scientific bodies, have to weigh up other things besides evidence. They will worry about public confidence – in the vaccine and also in ministers’ handling of any concerns. France for instance has struggled over vaccination. There is a long history of public suspicion of drug companies, which contributed to a debacle over the swine flu vaccine. France bought millions of doses, which people turned down. It has low vaccination rates for measles, mumps and rubella jabs in children too.
                          This, on the other hand, is behavioral psychology. It is impossible to prove or disprove, but it is possible that by being seen taking whatever vaccine concern seriously, the government might convince a greater number of the vaccine hesitant population to actually take the vaccine. We may be able to vaccinate more people overall by suspending this one vaccine briefly now.

                          Originally posted by The Guardian
                          But the other factor in deciding on suspension could even be supply. In the UK, there are plentiful stocks. In Europe, there are not. AstraZeneca has just cut its proposed deliveries again, down to 30m doses in the first quarter, which is about a third of what was originally promised. Suspending the vaccine is easier in Europe if it is not available in great quantities anyway.
                          I cannot speak for other countries, but the Dutch strategy encompasses eight distinct vaccines: BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, CureVac, Janssen, Sanofi, Novavax, and Valneva. In Q1, AZ delivers roughly one third of the vaccins; we were supposed to receive 1.5 million AZ vaccines versus 2.4 million Pfizer and 0.4 million Moderna. In Q2, we're supposed to receive 16.8 million vaccines, of which 4 million AZ. Our population is slightly under 17.3 million people, so even without the AZ vaccine, this provides enough for all (especially since not the entire population will be eligible for the vaccine, and not everyone will accept the vaccine). Alternatives are readily available, and are being actively deployed.

                          On top of that, since deals were closed between vaccine companies and governments, AZ has twice already severely rowed back on the agreed-on number of vaccins that they would deliver. In January AZ pledged to uphold supply to the UK but reduced EU Q1 supply from 80 to 31 million. And in March, AZ further rowed back on their promises for Q2. They have been an utterly unreliable partner for the EU. So EU countries might as well investigate the possible health risks associated with those few doses that AZ did deliver.
                          Last edited by Wouter D; 16-03-2021, 10:38.

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                            Strange goings on around here, my wife (below 40, triathlete, only ever been in hospital to have children and even then discharged the same day 2/4 times) has had her letter - the actual letter, not the “we’ve got a slot today and stuck a pin in the list” job - for her first dose this week.

                            Suspiciously a couple of other teachers we know who wouldn’t have appeared on any priority lists have also been called up, so fevered speculation that there is an unofficial teacher programme going on. The other explanation is that the last time the GP took her weight she was 8 months pregnant and so might appear to an algorithm to be a lot heavier than is the case. I’m leaning toward the latter reason rather than the conspiracy theory developing in the staff rooms

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                              As alluded above AZ has not done itself any favours...

                              There is also de fact that such incidents are taken much more seriously because of the very high percentage of vaccine sceptics in some of those countries. When a large segment of the population has no trust in either government and pharma companies, erring on the side of likely exaggerated caution is unavoidable.

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                                At some point, we're going to have to start vaccinating children as well. Worldwide, under 18s make up 29.3% of the population (for the UK it's less than 25%) so it's completely impossible to reach herd immunity without vaccinating children. I think there are some studies going ahead at the moment on the safety of Covid-19 vaccinations in children, but I don't know how long it will take for any to be approved for widespread use.

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                                  Thanks Wouter, for that link and that post.

                                  Not sure what will happen to those who have had a single AZ jab at this point when/if it is suspended. (My wife for example, would be in this situation)

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                                    Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                    Thanks Wouter, for that link and that post.

                                    Not sure what will happen to those who have had a single AZ jab at this point when/if it is suspended. (My wife for example, would be in this situation)
                                    Yes, that is an excellent point. Governments pausing AZ deployment really ought to clearly communicate a strategy to resolve this situation; the current approach to just leave those people hanging for a while is not acceptable.

                                    Again, every country may draw their own line here, and I cannot speak for others, but in the Netherlands the stated policy is to pause AZ deployment for two weeks (starting the day before yesterday). Within that timeframe, the European Medicines Agency is scheduled to deliver several statements on the AZ vaccine risk. I expect these statements to be of the form "nothing to see here", after which the Dutch government has the munition to resume AZ vaccination while placating the vaccine-skeptics. If Romania follows a similar line, the disruption should be benign.

                                    In other news, Pfizer/BioNTech just announced that they will supply 10 million vaccine doses more than initially promised in Q2. According to Ursula von der Leyen, "this enables member states to fill the supply holes left by others" [translation mine]. The Pfizer/AZ contrast is rather jarring.

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                                      Originally posted by Wouter D View Post
                                      The Pfizer/AZ contrast is rather jarring.
                                      I think it might have something to do with Pfizer being a massive company with enormous production capacity, that essentially got someone else to come up with their vaccine. One of the big issues with the numbers of vaccines available has been that the major global vaccine producers have really shat the bed. GSK and Sanofi were co-operating on a vaccine but seemingly fouled up their trial beyond all recognition and had to do it again. That is a massive hole in the EU's vaccine supply efforts. Merck completely gave up on their own vaccine, and instead did a deal with Johnson and Johnson, which helps explain how America is comparatively swimming in

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                                        Incidentally, the UK has received a big shipment from India of the AZ. The contract must be pretty tight...

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                                          Depressingly, Serbia, which has the highest vaccination rate in Europe (I believe) is in the middle of a massive spike of cases, and they've just gone in for a new massive shutdown

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                                            Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                            Depressingly, Serbia, which has the highest vaccination rate in Europe (I believe) is in the middle of a massive spike of cases, and they've just gone in for a new massive shutdown

                                            What's been the story on the restrictions there for the last few months?

                                            Obviously, if restrictions are relaxed, other than very gradually, before a vaccination programme is near or at completion, or if people become complacent, it's quite likely that cases will take off again.
                                            Last edited by Nocturnal Submission; 16-03-2021, 15:57.

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                                              Yeah, I don't know. I presume that like most of Central/Eastern Europe they;re in the middle of the B117 explosion.

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                                                Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                                Yeah, I don't know. I presume that like most of Central/Eastern Europe they;re in the middle of the B117 explosion.

                                                Yes, these new variants are muddying an already fairly cloudy picture.

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                                                  When our loathsome Tanaiste and the useless Taioseach keep flagging domestic tourism reopening in the summer/easing restrictions in May despite our AZ dependent vaccine programme already behind schedule I fear the worst here also. "the people need a summer" will be the new "the people need a Christmas/schools are safe".

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                                                    Ramping up here in BC. It seems possible, nay even probable, that we'll be able to book our vaccinations around the end of next week

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