US Election prediction thread

[San Bernardhinault]

And to be consistent, I presume you've missed the word 'some'?

I mean, obviously some white men aren't completely deranged arseholes. But you look at the voting stats in the US and the demographic that's most consistently voting for racist, misogynistic, stupid, destructive policies, the ones who vote to try and destroy society, the ones who vote for low taxes even when it's against their best interests, is white men.

There's a thing doing the rounds at the moment wondering what it is about Trump that appeals to Latino and Black men. Latino men voted for Biden. Black men voted strongly for Biden. White men voted strongly for Trump. Yet the question is framed as "what's wrong with non-white men?"

[MsD]

Well, yes, it's examined in the same way the deferential working-class vote would be; working-class voters were expected to vote Labour, so it's of interest to sociologists when they don't.

[Tactical Genius]

Hillary is not universally popular. Who is? I don't know any white women who hate her but I'm sure there are some. I didn't think I could let your sweeping generalisation go unchallenged though.

The other quote re white women voting for Trump. I don't know why those that do, do but the poster hadn't said "(All) White women vote for Trump" hence why it didn't need challenging.

I never said all white women, please do not misquote me. Many on here like to say I engage in bad faith arguments, yet its always others who fabricate quotes and attribute to me. Strange that.....

Fair point re Hot Pepsi's claim although again, I dont think he was suggesting all black males vote for Trump because they like his 'irresponsible divorced dad energy'. He seems to be suggesting some do. I presume he'll have some reason or evidence for this.

I think it's best we give Hot Pepsi the opportunity to explain himself before we draw conclusions or speculate.

[Satchmo Distel]

Well, yes, it's examined in the same way the deferential working-class vote would be; working-class voters were expected to vote Labour, so it's of interest to sociologists when they don't.

That's very true of class because Labour used to be a working-class party but race and gender are more problematic because it's not obvious that Democrats will pursue policies that favour all black men (obviously Biden never has), all Latinos or all white women, given that each of these categories is more diverse than a social class used to be when we still had manufacturing industries. We also need to look at the social networks people are plugged into: Cubans in Miami were tuned into radios that spread Trump lies and this influenced their votes accordingly. Then there are aspirations: are the small number of black men who vote Trump (and it is small, lest we forget) aspiring to economic roles normally occupied by white men and thus assimilating into those role expectations in their politics? If all bank managers are expected to vote Republican, what does the black guy do who climbing the career ladder in his bank?

Overall though, every individual has a complex mix of motives for their vote. Reducing those motives to race/gender category does not feel really informative to me. We need to do detailed field research into individuals to see how race, class, gender, leisure choices, social media, occupation, geographical location, social mobility, etc, combine in their behaviour. Exit polls are not designed to do that so are of very limited or no value.

[MsD]

There are plenty of papers exploring the data from the last election if you look online.

Here's one, if you look on researchgate there are more, and they aren't behind a paywall. https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ntial_election

And jstor.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.14321/j.ctvwrm66k

Actually that may be behind a paywall but it gives you a starter place to look.

https://www.asanet.org/news-events/f...ntial-election

And there's the book by Fredrick C. Harris which argues that Obama's success actually set back cohesive "black politics".
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/...t#other_review

[MsD]

Not posting this to be provocative, I just think it's interesting: Blacks for Trump claiming to be "the real rebels" "cool" and "the new punk rock".
https://welovetrump.com/2020/09/04/b...re-the-rebels/

[Foot of Astaire's]

I never said all white women, please do not misquote me.

You said "White women hate Hillary". When I asked you to qualify if you meant some or a few, etc you refused. You can see why I may have been confused? You obviously meant some rather than all. Fair enough.

[Tactical Genius]

You said "White women hate Hillary". When I asked you to qualify if you meant some or a few, etc you refused. You can see why I may have been confused? You obviously meant some rather than all. Fair enough.

Dude, you are not confused.
White women hating Hilary Clinton is a line the mainstream media has been pushing for 30 years as we all know. If you disagree with it, feel free to put me straight.

As for the numbers or percentage, I was responding directly to Satchmo (which is why I quoted him directly), it was him who brought up the significant numbers of white women who disregarded Trumps history vis a vis females and voted for him regardless, I offered a reason. I assumed it was obvious for anyone who followed the trail.

[Uncle Ethan]

Perhaps this is not a time to be constantly badgering people who have pretty openly declared they are finding the current situation extremely stressful. Maybe give them the benefit of the doubt for a while?

[Incandenza]

final prediction:

Looks like I missed on NC and ME-2.

[Satchmo Distel]

That is impressive! The polls were broadly correct then, within a margin of error?

[ursus arctos]

For President, generally correct for outcome, with the margin of victory sometimes well outside the margin of error.

For other offices, a number of outcome misses, including Collins, who didn't lead in a single poll all campaign.

[Incandenza]

Yeah, Senate was way off. Which still makes me wonder if the presidential polls will in the end turn out to be reasonably close, and people voted for Republican senate candidates because they didn't want to have Democrats in control of all three branches.

But really, I wonder if polls aren't capturing an accurate representation of the electorate, and I don't know if there's a way to correct that.

[San Bernardhinault]

The polls seem to have been bang on in Georgia, off by a couple of percent in North Carolina, and off by 10% in Wisconsin. From my very unscientific guess at it (and excepting Florida because everything seems like it should have a Florida exception) it looks like the closer you get to the Mid-West, the more inaccurate the polls were

[Nefertiti2]

I predict a refusal to accept the result.

Do I get a prize?

[tee rex]

We had another set of Trump predictions 4 years ago, and with a couple of exceptions, we were rubbish. Wrong enough to have a regular pundit spot on telly.

https://www.onetouchfootball.com/for...diction-thread

[San Bernardhinault]

Do I get a prize?

I think it’s premature to say whether or not you were right. We need to wait until this is properly investigated in the fullness of time... etc... etc...

[WOM]

I'm not surprised that Trump is dragging his feet. I'm not surprised that the cowards of the past 4 years continue to be cowards today. Where I'm concerned is in the actual nuts and bolts of things - this woman not releasing all the transition apparatus so that the new team can get set up - that's freaking me out a little.

[ursus arctos]

The GSA Administrator has only blocked the funds, she can't effectively block the work, which is happening on the staff level

[S. aureus]

I can't say that I'd be terribly surprised if there are some literal turds left lying around the White House for Biden when he moves in.

[Hot Pepsi]

I think Washington did that to Adams or was it Adams who did that to Jefferson? Not them specifically, but their crew.