Okay, a week away from November 3. Share you predictions here, whatever you want--electoral votes, Senate numbers, what Trump will do, the start of Civil War 2, etc. For electoral college maps, https://www.270towin.com/ has you covered, enter your picks and then find the share options underneath.
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My prediction is one single electoral vote different to Inca's for the Presidential election (Maine 2 making it 350-188)
My Senate prediction is almost the same as Inca's except that I think that both Georgia elections will go to a run-off as no candidate will get to 50%, so on election night it'll be 51-47. I think in a run-off with Biden as President, the regular Georgia seat will go Republican. But if the Republican candidate in the special election is Kelly Loeffler rather than Doug Collins (and this'll be tight), then Warnock might win under any circumstances.
The House will see a few gains for Democrats, but not many. Maybe 237 - 198.
I think we will know enough on election night to know that Trump won't win. The numbers from Florida and Arizona will be enough. But I think we won't know enough to know that Trump can't win. There'll be enough outstanding uncounted votes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that there would be a technical possibility of a Trump upset. It won't actually be close enough to allow a supreme court coup, but it'll be technical enough that Trump will bluster some bullshit on election night but slowly shut up over the subsequent days.
I don't think Trump will actively sabotage the country in a fit of pique in his last days - all his actions were always about himself. He may pardon himself of his crimes, and find ways to shovel cash into the Trump organisation, but he won't give a shit about judicial appointments when they can no longer win him any votes. The ship of state will be rudderless through early winter, which will be disastrous in terms of pandemic management, but it will be a disaster caused by apathy rather than malice.Comment
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Only Iowa in the difference.Comment
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My presidential prediction, in the very narrow set of circs which involves pretty much everyone who is entitled to and wants to vote being allowed to vote and pretty much all of those votes being translated in the usual way into electoral college electors, is:
Biden 334
Trump 204
I can't remember exactly what states that was based on tbh. It was a couple of weeks ago.
I have not the foggiest how to go about making any sensible prediction of senate and house races.Comment
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Intriguingly, 334 - 204 is the 270towin map you get when you go to the page. Or I just did anyway.
Cleaned it up:
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I have no faith in Florida or Georgia given those states' absolute commitment to shenanigansComment
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True, my prediction is probably a "if all votes are properly counted in an ideal situation" prediction.Originally posted by ursus arctos View PostComment
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There are some wishful thinking predictions happening here, I fear.
What do the bookies say?
They think Biden will win - he is a best priced 1/2, whereas Trump is best priced 15/8 - Which implies a 66.7% probability of a Biden win, and 34.8% Trump (the 1.5% excess is the bookies' profit)
But... unusually, these odds aren't accurately reflecting the money coming in, as they would if it was a horse race. The money is coming for Trump, roughly twice as many bets on him than Biden, with the ratio growing. A bit like in 2016. And like the Brexit vote (both of which I won on).
My prediction: Trump will win 276-262. I'll certainly be backing (by which I mean betting on) him. I'd be delighted to lose, but don't think I will.Comment
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Show your map, please
And look at how the bookies did in 2018Comment
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I don't know how it will work out exactly in states - though I find it hard to believe that enough Democrat votes will actually be counted to win in eg Florida - but I can't shake the feeling that Trump will somehow still be in power this time next year.Comment
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I predict a refusal to accept the result.Comment
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I predict a civil war (which the Trumpers will win because they have no compassion, no sense of brotherhood, no morals, no humanity, and loads of guns.)Comment
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Doesn't everybody have guns, even the relatively good guys?
Anyway, if it goes all BT15 I offer my services as peace envoy.If I do manage to get over post-COVID, we can have a summit in Buffalo NY after sightseeing at NiagaraComment
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If it's close enough to be in doubt, I predict the Republicans will play hardball (as they always do) and the Democrats will roll over and say" tickle my tummy" (as they always do)Comment
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God, you people are depressing.Comment
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Who does all the counting? State employees, volunteers...? And how stringent is the counter-checking, if any? Are impartial observers present in all states?Comment
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Stolen by Trump, libtards owned.Comment
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I think Trump would delay a concession until the Electoral College casts its votes in December. He'll assume the votes are negotiable. A concession on the night is hard to conceive, even with a Reagan-Mondale blowout.
Florida is a toss-up due to voter suppression and shy Trumpers so I think the Rust Belt is key.
I also still feel that the Senate is a toss-up, although I think 538 has it as 73% likely Democrat (Biden win is around 87% likely).
I don't want to jinx it and will be nervous all day Tuesday until we know it is in the bag. Even then, I will be nervous about the Senate, which I assume won't be decided on the night.Comment
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Easy prediction: this election won't reverse the dire course we're on. The "voter fraud" thing is here to stay, a Supreme Court majority is on board with it, and we'll be paying for it for decades. The GOP will continue to corrupt elections enough to retain state legislatures and probably the US Senate. I have no faith that the Democrats will expand the court, or that the majority of Americans would support that.
We're addicted to the notion that in a game with two sides we have to be "fair" to both sides no matter how corrupt one side is. It's perennially easy to appear to be reasonable by tacking to the center while the extreme keeps redefining the center. Only a civil war or revolution will create real structural change at this point. Look at who we're putting our hope in, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, a couple of clueless neoliberal showboats.
I'll be delighted to be wrong. Maybe in four years we'll have universal health care and an actual climate change policy. But the current SCOTUS doesn't make that appear likely.Comment
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Yep.Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
And mostly what Bruno said. Especially the bit about being delighted to be wrong.Comment
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I've got the Democrats to win 328-210. Admittedly, knowing nothing about US politics, I tossed a rubiks cube for each state and coloured in the map accordingly, but that's what half the pollsters do anyway.Comment
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No.Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
There is a really fun NYT 2016 electoral map that shows voting based on non-gun owners and gun-owners. It is basically a blue map of America and a red map of America.
This one is interesting as well.
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The 2016 map is here
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...an-divide.html
As to overall numbers
About 40% of Americans say they or someone in their household owns a gun, and 22% of individuals (about 72 million people) report owning a gun, according to surveys from Pew and Harvard and Northeastern. This figure has declined over time, down from 51% of gun-owning households in 1978. Gun purchases, however, have hit historic highs in recent years and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Just 3% of American adults own a collective 133m firearms – half of America’s total gun stock. These owners have collections that range from eight to 140 guns, the 2015 study found. Their average collection: 17 guns each.Comment
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