Nagorno Karabakh

[ad hoc]

Fighting has flared up again between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Turkey and Russia poised to be at loggerheads once more in support of their preferred sides in the conflict.

This is from the Ft and it opened for me, but I never know when these things will work and when not https://www.ft.com/content/4f7cd48e-...reType=nongift

(I'm somewhat more knowledgeable about and interested in this conflict at the moment (ie I know a tiny amount whereas previously i knew virtually nothing), because it features as one of the sections in the blood and Circuses book I reviewed for the last WSC)

[San Bernardhinault]

Do the Russians actually have a preferred side here? If I was guessing, I'd have predicted that they were mostly hoping for chaos where they could step in, rather than actually backing the Armenians.

Every time I read about Nagorno Karabakh it makes me sad because of the way it appears to have just been held in pointless stasis for a quarter century. But I don't know how it could possibly get resolved peacefully.

[S. aureus]

Again, didn't work for me clicking the link here, but pasting the title (fighting flares between Armenia and Azerbaijan over disputed enclave) into google got me in.

[ad hoc]

Do the Russians actually have a preferred side here?

The article implies that they see Armenia as an ally

[Diable Rouge]

The current Armenian government seems to have started out wanting closer ties with the EU, and as such was turning its back on Russia, but since coming to power, appears to desire being a halfway house between both blocs, but as you say, I doubt Russia would get involved unless Turkey directly intervenes.

[Diable Rouge]

The Guardian has a fairly detailed article here.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1310244209631408128?s=20

[Diable Rouge]

Claims that Azerbaijan has captured 7 villages, but no official confirmation.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/armenia/status/1310123460648218629?s=20

twitter wars

https://twitter.com/NasimiAghayev/status/1310172444066340865?s=20

[colchestersid]

I went to NK on holiday in 2004, we stayed in Shusha in the hills above Stepanakert

It was a beautiful country (aren't all these disputed places?) - only a brief trip and would love to return. Shusha was virtually a ghost town, before the war it was mostly Azeris and they all fled in 1992. Most of the buildings were still abandoned, being in the hills it was misty in the morning so an incredible place to explore

When we arrived in NK we had to go to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs to get our visas - the rather grumpy official who took our $20 was actually their Foreign Minister - I'll try and dig out my old passport as can't be many NK visa stamps around

Sadly the situation that week meant it was too dangerous to visit Agdam which is the abandoned city on the "border" with Azerbaijan - plenty of images on Google

Oh and I am now officially banned for life from entering Azerbaijan - anyone visiting NK is considered to have entered Azerbaijan illegally

[Antepli Ejderha]

Azerbaijan has spent a large proportion of its oil and gas wealth on the military with the sole aim of retaking Nagorno Karabakh. It's bought much of this weaponry from Russia who've historically been seen as Armenia's protectors.

Armenia, as a land locked country, with borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey closed appears to have nowhere else to go but to Russia meaning Russia is in complete control of the situation.

Turkey sealed the border with Armenia in the 90s and apart from a brief time under Abdullah G?l has only over sought to support Azerbaijan and keep the border closed. Turkey and Armenia were drawn in the same group for qualification for either the Euros or WC. There was some genuine hope of a negotiated peace and the match in Turkey passed off without incident.

Every now and again Azerbaijan and Armenia have clashes on the front lines, Armenia still occupies about 10% of Azerbaijan to secure a corridor to Nagorno Karabakh, with clashes lasting a few days. The reports of today make it sound like a more serious clash. Turkey has done what Turkey always does, pledge support for their Turkic brothers and Russia has appealed for calm, as it always does.

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...droidApp_Other

Turkey allegedly sending mercenaries from Syria to Azerbaijan, if true this is an extremely worrying development.

Heavy fighting continued yesterday.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1310948606468386818

[Gangster Octopus]

Apparently Ganja is getting bombed.

Soz...

[Antepli Ejderha]

Apparently Ganja is getting bombed.

Soz...

?

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...droidApp_Other

A very well written summary of the conflict.

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...droidApp_Other

It appears that Russia has told Azerbaijan enough and sent in troops to keep the corridor between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh open.

This follows on from Azerbaijan shooting down a Russian military helicopter away from the conflict zone on the border of Armenia and the Azeri enclave of Nakichevan.

Azerbaijan has retaken most of the land lost in the war in the early 90s but not much of Nagorno Karabakh itself, it's still a very confusing situation on the ground as both sides make claims and there are few independent sources on the ground.

Tens of thousands of people have been displaced, how many of them are from the land occupied by Armenia?

Thousands of people dead.

This peace deal or armistice is due to last 5 years.

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://twitter.com/TBaktemir/status/1570924337334718465?t=xfO18xP-snkaT1MNls4ZnQ&s=19


This is a decent thread on the Azeri invasion of Armenia

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/1704133572188328293?s=19

Ethnic cleansing or genocide?

[Gangster Octopus]

I can't believe that I didn't mention that my neice was reporting on the war from Yerevan, which is why she eventually got invited to Baku, which led to her banning from Turkey...

Oh, and she spent December 2020 in a hotel room in Yerevan with covid s her only companion...

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1704423166217429281?t=NmHAyNyst6WuFD6gmi4bzw&s=19

[San Bernardhinault]

That's probably terrible news for the ethnic armenians in Karabakh. In a best case scenario it would normalise conditions in the region, but that seems wildly optimistic.

The whole episode does increasingly suggest that Russian security guarantees are being considered worthless in the region, and perhaps Russian influence is on the decline.

[Lang Spoon]

Or Russia switched sides when Armenia took part in US military exercises. Possibly even to keep Turkey onside as a fellow traveller/"honest broker".

[San Bernardhinault]

Maybe so, but that makes their "security guarantees" even less reliable than before and - presumably - loses them some of their remaining regional superpower influence

[Lang Spoon]

Yeah their superpower schtick is very much dependant on China being willing to tolerate their bollocks also and keep having them as super best friends.