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Ladakh (Indo-Chinese conflict)

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    Ladakh (Indo-Chinese conflict)

    The Indo-Chinese border has been a source of geopolitical tension for decades, with the most serious transgression occurring in the early Sixties, when China annexed the Aksai Chin territory. Now, in the largely Buddhist district of Ladakh (formerly part of Kashmir), China has recently crossed the international border, and three Indian soldiers have been killed, for the first time in 45 years.

    https://twitter.com/ahmermkhan/status/1272795363607375876

    #2
    That's been simmering away for years...Hopefully it will be business as usual after some sabre rattling from India...

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      #3
      I know bugger all about the history of this specific border controversy, but I suspect that there is long term strategy in how the Chinese government is playing this. They will be seeking to lock in long term gains at India's expense, slowly but surely. That's what they do. They seem to be in a major geo-political power expansion game across several regions and I can't see that stopping. The set of motives and constraints is asymmetric between the two nations due to one being a democracy and the other not.

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        #4
        Originally posted by Evariste Euler Gauss View Post
        I know bugger all about the history of this specific border controversy, but I suspect that there is long term strategy in how the Chinese government is playing this. They will be seeking to lock in long term gains at India's expense, slowly but surely. That's what they do. They seem to be in a major geo-political power expansion game across several regions and I can't see that stopping. The set of motives and constraints is asymmetric between the two nations due to one being a democracy and the other not.
        India is a democracy in the sense that the US is. It's gerrymandered. It's corrupt. It's nepotism incarnate. And all the same tropes of populist nationalism have been in play for even longer and are even more entrenched because of the religious/caste elements. Modi has less geopolitical clout than Trump, but if I had to choose one to run the UK it would be Trump in a heartbeat.

        The only sense being shown here is that for some considerable time, neither army has been armed on the front line, to prevent accidental escalation. The I've seen reports the dead Indians were killed by beatings or stones. Usually there are shoving or fist fights between the two Armes (seriously) and this time, the Indians appear, from early reports to be the aggressors.

        Meanwhile, the Indians are locking in gains at the expense of Nepal, annexing Nepalese territory by building roads and changing maps. Nepal and Bhutan are helpless, small, landlocked and, long-term, possibly fucked. Bhutan is so scared of China it's already heading toward being a client state of India.

        The Chinese are indeed pushing and grabbing, but it's far from asymmetric.

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          #5
          Of course, the most notorious Indian example in that regard was Sikkim - admittedly, the Nepalese immigrants to the region had become the majority, and were treated ignominiously by the ruling dynasty, but the annexation was undoubtedly a stitch-up.

          https://www.newsclick.in/how-sikkim-...nd-state-india
          Last edited by Diable Rouge; 16-06-2020, 12:50.

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            #6
            Both sides confirm "no shots fired"
            ​​​​​​
            https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...560-2020-06-16

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              #7
              Just the other day I found out about the Siachen Glacier, which seems to be just about the only place on the planet where there's no clear de facto control. It's a bastard when mapping. You can assign de facto control to Pakistan or India or China all along the McMahon Line and through Kashmir. You'll piss a billion people off one way or another, but you can justify your definitions.

              But nobody really seems to control Siachen so it's very unclear where to allocate it.

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                #8
                How about the Bir Tawil triangle, claimed by neither Sudan nor Egypt?
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bir_Tawil

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                  #9
                  Marie Byrd Land for an uninhabited example.

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                    #10
                    Bir Tawil, like the Halaib Triangle, fall on one side or the other of a border that is widely recognised even if there are disputes between the two countries. Despite Sudan's claim, most people define everything using the straight line political boundary. For most disputes like this there's a more-widely-accepted definition that's easy to use.

                    And as for Antarctica, just don't bother drawing borders. Don't give anyone the credit for their supposed territorial claims.

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                      #11
                      India now saying that 20 of its soldiers are dead.

                      That's a lot of rocks.

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                        India now saying that 20 of its soldiers are dead.

                        That's a lot of rocks.
                        They've upgraded the rocks apparently:

                        "Hindustan Times has learnt rival soldiers exchanged blows, threw stones at each other and Chinese troops even attacked Indian soldiers with rods and nail-studded clubs during the brawl that went on for over six hours."

                        ANI and NDTV claiming 43 Chinese casualties also (unclear on deaths/injured). Presumably the Indians were tooled up as well.

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                          #13
                          Here's an article on China-India border disputes from a military-logistical and geostrategic perspective.

                          https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/te...hinese-border/

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by delicatemoth View Post
                            Here's an article on China-India border disputes from a military-logistical and geostrategic perspective.

                            https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/te...hinese-border/
                            That's really interesting, thanks DM.

                            As the article says, China has a massive infrastructure advantage. Until India gets the "Rohtang" tunnel open, (due this month iirc, but not heard it's operational), there are 2 (two) roads connecting Ladakh with the rest of India. One comes through Kashmir, from Srinagar and the other over the Rohtang pass, a road you may have seen on TV's Ice Road Truckers; World's Most Dangerous Roads. The passes are open only between June and October and are often single track roads, unpaved for significant sections, meaning they can only supply by air for 8 months of the year.

                            As an aside, if anyone ever gets the chance to visit Ladakh, they should, and it's mostly not war zone.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              It's a good site if you're interested in 'the professionals' view' on conflicts.

                              Comment

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