What will change after this?

[Bored Of Education]

I am not sure that anything will but I wonder if this period will lead to any major changes in people's behaviour. The reason I am nit sure is because I am not entirely that the greatest pandemic in our lives (and probably will remain so) HIV/AIDS really changed any behaviours (although seeing as I have been with my wife for most of it, I probably wouldn't). As mentioned on the 'minor pluses' thread, I would like to think that there would be more of appreciation of the NHS especially when they want to use the clawing back of the 80% of wages as an excuse to sell it off wholesale to the US. I expect that our European cousins will go back to being as demonstrative physically as they always have but I can see the British being even more taciturn - although the amount of cheery 'hellos' since this started has been nice. Can anyone think of any other possibilities?

[Snake Plissken]

I'm naturally cynical but we will be told that all the good stuff that has happened (guarantees of wages, tenancy etc) will be swiftly rolled back. Maybe as part of the "economic recovery process".

I also worry that No Deal Brexit will be sold as "well, we got through this once". Oh and that the recently added powers will keep being renewed every six months because... reasons.

[NHH]

Trends which I'd expect to increase:

1) UBI to become more clearly understood as workers are increasingly furloughed/isolated
2) China to complete transformation to global hegemon, as US economy tanks because the 30% hit to GDP combined with CV-19 deaths and political disorder fucks it
3) But mismatch of economic and military positions of US make for very scary times
4) Increasing robotisation as workers become a haphazard part of production
5) Shortening of supply chains as vulnerability of existing ones as 1 in 100 disruptions become 1 in 10
6) Climate action politics become practical rather than fanciful dreams
7) The moralism of deserving and undeserving that undergirds neoliberal political economy becomes impossible to sustain in an age of contagion
8) 'Realism' is revealed to be political choice, not natural law


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[tracteurgarcon]

Surely HIV changed all sorts of behaviours? Use of condoms, not sharing needles etc?

[treibeis]

.

[Toby Gymshorts]

What he didn't say.

[Bored Of Education]

Surely HIV changed all sorts of behaviours? Use of condoms, not sharing needles etc?

Good point on not sharing needles but I am not sure it has dropped to the point that perhaps we think it has. Certainly, there are more needle programmes but, even with them, there is a fair amount of shared needles although I would hope it was much less than pre-HIV.

The generations that lived through AIDS certainly will have increased condom use but, again, I am not sure that the younger generations haven't reverted back to the overly-relaxed attitudes that happened pre-AIDs.

It's a bit of a digression from the main thread and I am more than happy to be proved the out-of-touch middle aged man that I probably am.

[Janik]

I'm cautiously hopeful that a general backlash against zero hours contracts, lack of sick leave, self-employed contractors who the general public would assume are actually direct employees (amazon et al) and similar such working practices will happen. Why am I cautiously optimistic that will? Because those not affected by it are suddenly highly aware that the positions it puts other people in compromises everyone's safety. Including that of those not employed in such circumstances. So not out of altruism or due to any social consciousness but out of pure selfish interests. Those have a much better success rate of driving political changes through.

More cautiously, I'm hoping that the clear evidence of the environmental boom reduced human impact will definitely cause opens more pairs of eyes to green questions. Enough for there to be some lasting change in policies.

What I am certain of is that event of this magnitude will change things. Human society always emerges differently after such events. Life in 2022 will have noticeable alterations from life in 2019. But exactly what they are is pretty unpredictable.

[Lurgee]

A sensible approach would see the demise of the 'gig' economy; an assessment of the viability of drastic action to mitigate climate change; a re-evaluation of how we live and work with an increased emphasis on how many people can work from home; a re-appraisal of the importance of manual / people facing jobs (who knew that supermarket workers would emerge as heroes?); a reduction in global mobility; the establishment of a PAYE style contingency funds so future pandemic shut downs won't be as personally devastating; personal reassessment of what is truly important in life. Just for starters.

Will any of that happen? Probably not.

[ursus arctos]

I am increasingly worried about the scapegoating that is going to take hold here as the damage continues to worsen

[Paul S]

I work in transport and there are going to be massive changes in the airline industry. For a start travel to and from countries with the coronavirus is going to be almost impossible. Also, gone will be the open borders and the ability to travel seamlessly from one country to another. If a country has the virus people will not be allowed out. International travel is going to change and I think it will massively contract for a significant amount of time.

[Paul S]

Stunning pictures from Bournemouth airport of all the planes lined up:

[Paul S]

Bloody hell, Flight radar makes for stunning viewing right now:

https://www.flightradar24.com/DIL/242d9baa

[NHH]

I'd also bet on the value of city centre office space to fall appreciably; if it wasn't for the fact that lots of big and old money have staked a lot on the long term value of their capital investments, I'd say office accommodation could go the way of inner city industry, bringing urban centres into much greater residential and tourist usage.


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[Amor de Cosmos]

As much as anything it depends how far away "after this" turns out to be. Two months? Two years? Longer? No one can say at the moment, but there are benchmarks along the way that are going to be pivotal.* For example if the virus is still rampant come October the US election will be profoundly affected. How many people will turn out, how can you ask people to go to polling places when they're essentially quarantined?

* The Atlantic who have been doing brilliantly on the issues around Covid-19, had a very good piece on this yesterday:

[hobbes]

I suspect there will be an explosion of mental health issues like OCD and germophobia.

[San Bernardhinault]

My instincts are to say: Not much. A lot has been written about how this will finally force the US to see the value of universal healthcare (or, at the very least, not having healthcare tied to jobs that you lose during a health crisis); about how the reduction in international travel will trigger climate change action; and a bunch of other things. I cynically doubt that will change at all.

I do think we'll see an increase in the already present uptick in nationalism and racism. As a corollary, we'll probably see more people jumping on the idiotic protectionism bandwagon.

NHH has the one I think is most obvious. Businesses will realise that many employees can work from home, and will realise the value in not spending on inner city office space. There'll be a lot of downsizing of head offices.

Sadly, I think that with a lot of small shops and restaurants in particular, but other businesses too, closing we'll see what happened with brewing in the US after prohibition: the biggest and economically strongest in their fields will survive and swallow up or destroy a lot of smaller upstarts. We'll have "consolidation" in a lot of industries leading to far less consumer choice, and more lowest common denominator products.

[HORN]

I'm hopeful that working from home becomes much more prevalent. As a rule my company more or less shit their pants when a WFH request is made. Maybe this lockdown will open their eyes.

It won't.

[Wouter D]

I don't think anything will fundamentally change.

[Big Boobs and FIRE!]

Maternity wards will be very busy from December onwards.

[EIM]

No more shaking hands and kissing on the cheeks. Hopefully.

[Satchmo Distel]

It will accelerate things already happening; in my own profession, a massive shift to online teaching with technology like Zoom seems inevitable, which in turn will cause a lot of older teachers to give up and retire early in disgust.

The generation gap will increase, as will the gap between those who can afford the best tech and those who are left with crap tech or no tech.

Regarding the role of the state, I suspect a repeat of 2008-12 whereby neoliberalism resurfaces with amnesia about how it failed when the chips were down.

[Nefertiti2]

Socialism or barbarism.

[ursus arctos]

NHH has the one I think is most obvious. Businesses will realise that many employees can work from home, and will realise the value in not spending on inner city office space. There'll be a lot of downsizing of head offices.

This has been going on for some time already, and will be accelerated by the crisis.

Not only can people work from home, but those in an office no longer "need" large individual spaces. Law is a very traditional profession in terms of space, but even we were planning to reduce our footprint by about 25 percent before all of this happened.

[jwdd27]

Retail
E-commerce (home delivery, click and collect) had just about started to turn a profit before this thing hit, and although it has been impossible to come close to meeting the hugely increased demand (we will however be tripling the output by the end of April all being well), a lot of people are going to remain as online shoppers when this has blown through, especially the older generation.
Which is great, if we can turn a profit without customers entering the shop, that's fine.
Delivery is still troublesome because of costs of vehicle leasing/service/fuel/insurance and costs of driver training, plus out on the road there's so much scope for things to go wrong.
Click and Collect, however, is a winner. The UK has lagged behind Europe in enthusiasm for picking up their own delivery, but as more people try it it will explode.
I expect to see salesfloor space shrinking in favour of enlarged home shopping operations backstage, with financial incentives to customers meaning it will be a cheaper option than going round the shop yourself.
The in person shopper will receive a lower level of service and availability, and will pay a higher price for it.

This was all in the pipeline before Covid, but the pandemic has put the process on fast forward.

As far as #retailheroes go, it will be forgotten soon enough. There will be bonuses, and there'll probably be a small pay hike, but they will expect more from those who receive it, and will pay for it by getting rid of staff they no longer need on the slimmed down shop floor (see above).