Covid-19 pandemic

[Jimski]

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1404041503501176835

[Sam]

Owing to the fact I'm commentating on the Copa América and therefore have to travel to the production studio, I'll be taking public transport on Monday afternoon, for the first time in pretty much exactly 15 months. Going to be an interesting experience.

[Balderdasha]

Peru has just exceeded 2 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, the 17th country in the world to reach that milestone, and has the world's highest death rate after a revision of its death figures following excess deaths analysis. The death rate there is 5.649 deaths per 1,000 population, or one out of every 177 people in the country has died due to Covid-19. If the world reached that death rate we'd see 44.6 million deaths due to Covid-19.

[Balderdasha]

Also worth pointing out that only around 6% of Peru's population has tested positive for Covid-19 and less than 6% of the population has been vaccinated. The positivity rate is likely to be low due to lack of testing, but there's still probably a big pool of individuals without immunity, so there is potential for the death rate to increase further still.

[Patrick Thistle]

Cases have gone up in Wales. 247 today, after a weekend, is concerning. Death rates very low. Another day with zero deaths today.

Heard some of Boris Johnson's announcement today about putting the opening up date in England back to 19 July.

Welsh Government anouncement later this week.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1404588507562184704

[Sam]

Owing to the fact I'm commentating on the Copa América and therefore have to travel to the production studio, I'll be taking public transport on Monday afternoon, for the first time in pretty much exactly 15 months. Going to be an interesting experience.

This went rather well (the travel bit, I mean. I've briefly discussed the commentary on the appropriate Football thread). I'd forgotten how hot the Subte (Buenos Aires metro) is, and also how overheated office buildings and the like tend to be here in winter – I'm glad I'm not going in every day, or ever for more than about three hours, because I could imagine myself getting a sore throat just from the fact they've got the heating jacked right up and no windows open even though it's about 15 degrees outside. Incredibly stuffy.

I can't remember whether it was this thread or the vaccination progress one where I mentioned last week that the City of BA opened up registration to 50–54 year olds last week. I thought it'd take at least a month to work through them but when I got home (what an odd four words to type! It's been a while ...) my girlfriend told me they'd announced that tomorrow registration will be open to 45–49 year olds. I know we're all going to be doing this for a long time to come still, but this now has me daring to dream of a spring and summer in which just maybe I can take public transport and go and play pool on decent tables from time to time (the only ones I can ride my bike to are in a dreadful state of upkeep).

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/hwallop/status/1404488688378204167?s=21

[Patrick Thistle]

Wow. That's not aged well.

98 new cases in Wales today. Big drop from yesterday.

[Sam]

Wow. That's not aged well.

The funny thing is that given his own claims to know his twentieth century history, he really should have known that 'It'll be over by Christmas' is a prediction that doesn't have a great track record. When it turns out to be mistaken, it turns out to be really mistaken.

[Nurse Duckett]

The funny thing is that given his own claims to know his twentieth century history, he really should have known that 'It'll be over by Christmas' is a prediction that doesn't have a great track record. When it turns out to be mistaken, it turns out to be really mistaken.

And when he declared that Brexit would be a "titanic" success. The rancid bag of custard is trolling us.

[San Bernardhinault]

Every time I heard him say "It'll be over by Christmas" I had a terrible feeling that it was going to last four years. I hope that he's not WWI levels of wrong.

[Eggchaser]

I see Cummings is dropping bombshells about Hancock and funny posh Boris.

Curiously silent on Cuddly Rishi and Visionary Gove.

[ursus arctos]

Though tangible proof that Johnson believes Hancock to be "totally fucking useless" proves that he is just like us after all

[Eggchaser]

In fairness to the odious little squit (Cummings, since I appreciate this description does not immediately identify him in the line up), his description of Johnson's style of charing meetings rings true.

[ursus arctos]

I've always thought that his mendacity in the context is grounded more In what he chooses not to reveal

[Balderdasha]

Russia has now officially overtaken the UK in terms of its confirmed Covid-19 death toll, though the true Russian death toll is believed to be much higher.

[Balderdasha]

Over 9,000 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 recorded in the UK yesterday, which is similar to numbers seen in February 2021 or end Sept / early Oct 2020.

Numbers are up over 32% from last week, to over 55,000 new cases in the last seven days, or about 4 times higher than it was in April / early May this year. Deaths not climbing as steeply yet. The always lag the case numbers by several weeks and hopefully vaccination rates has at least weakened the link between cases and deaths even if it hasn't been completely broken.

[Balderdasha]

Argentina and Colombia have now overtaken the UK in terms of confirmed deaths from Covid-19 per 1,000 population.

[Nefertiti2]

This is how insane the British government is

https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1405435011847892994?s=21

[Discordant Resonance]

Irish immunisation rates are rapidly increasing:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1405513466807521294

One reply below claims the latter figure is where the UK were on the 5th of May.

[Crusoe]

Got my second dose earlier this week. Which, I think, means I'm technically invincible and am going to live forever.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Over 9,000 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 recorded in the UK yesterday, which is similar to numbers seen in February 2021 or end Sept / early Oct 2020.

Numbers are up over 32% from last week, to over 55,000 new cases in the last seven days, or about 4 times higher than it was in April / early May this year. Deaths not climbing as steeply yet. The always lag the case numbers by several weeks and hopefully vaccination rates has at least weakened the link between cases and deaths even if it hasn't been completely broken.

And over 11k today. Deaths are still low, 19 today, but this isn't looking good at all.

All adults can now get a jab and I think that's the aim, very as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible before this gets out of control.

[Patrick Thistle]

Half the adults in the Cardiff health board area (200,000) people have been double vaxxed now.

[Janik]

And over 11k today. Deaths are still low, 19 today, but this isn't looking good at all.

All adults can now get a jab and I think that's the aim, very as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible before this gets out of control.

That is absolutely the aim. But even if it works to the extent that current strains are endemic but don't produce many deaths, lots of cases = lots of potential for mutation. And we are introducing selection pressures that will significantly favour any mutation that provides extra transmisability... but that extra transmisability might be a direct consequence of decreased virulence. Decreased virulence remaining a really excellent way of a disease propagating if it can infect in it's pre-symptomatic phase or from asymptomatic carriers.