Covid-19 pandemic

[Fussbudget]

Zero deaths announced today for the first day since the pandemic started. That's no deaths within 28 days of having a positive covid19 test in any part of the UK.

I know people have already addressed that the zero deaths was due to the bank holiday backlog plus the data gets noisier the lower the numbers are, but also this is looking at the date the deaths are reported rather than actual date of death.

Out of curiosity I had a look and the last day there was actually zero covid deaths in the UK (as opposed to zero deaths reported) was 7 March 2020, which, fucking hell.

[Janik]

So I checked the data, and the wording I used in my post with the stats yesterday evening - deaths involving COVID and deaths due to COVID - was actually not a paraphrase at all. Those were the column titles. There isn't an explanation in the raw data set of what these terms actually mean.

[Discordant Resonance]

6,238 new cases of Covid-19 recorded in the UK today, which is roughly the level it was at back in early March 2021.

Although with roughly half the UK population having received both jabs, deaths should be far lower - no data on fatalities available in Ireland now for three weeks, since the cyber attack, but ICU figures are now down to 28, and most of those are aged under 50.

[San Bernardhinault]

More good news in the data from here:

It can still get worse again, but there's a strong feeling that the pandemic is done here in Massachusetts. The average (7 day) death rate is 6, which is the lowest it's been since March 2020. The positivity rate is 0.5% which is the lowest it has ever been. The actual case numbers average 160 per day which is the lowest it has been since March 2020 apart from one single day last summer.

With 67% of the total population one vaccine in (and therefore over 80% of the adult population), and 55% fully vaccinated, there just doesn't seem to be a big enough pool for the virus to swim in. Other parts of the US are in a much worse boat, but the North East (New England, New York, New Jersey) really feel like they're in the fairly harmless long tail. We're at the point where actually a death-with-covid-but-run-over-by-a-bus would start to skew the data. The risks have plummetted.

[Gangster Octopus]

As far as I can tell, this pandemic is never done.

[jason voorhees]

My wife and kid got home and got their Pfirst Pfizer. So I'm quite happy.

The Italian embassy here in .py is vaccinating all of their citizens, unlike our Useless.S.A embassy. Forza Italia.

Our school has had no cases for 2 weeks, with almost everyone going to Miami last month. Yippie.

I need to make it 18 more days.

[Sam]

Your wife and daughter are back in the States, jv, right? Have they been with you until now?

Fingers crossed the FDA announcement that Pfizer is good in normal fridges for up to a week, combined with the donation Biden's signed, makes a difference. Although 25 million doses (or something like that) for the whole of Latin America isn't an absolutely massive number, it's true.

Down here, AstraZeneca doses (the ones the government signed the purchase order for a couple of days before the UK government did, and which were produced in Argentina before being sent to Mexico for packaging) are finally starting to roll in. The first doses produced here were being made in December, and were supposed to be back here for distribution in late January or early February. In a few years' time there will be some fascinating books written about the geopolitics and economic deals done in the last year or so, and I really don't think AstraZeneca or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are going to come out of them looking good.

City of BA has now started letting 55–59 year olds, and anyone over 18 with underlying conditions, get the vaccine. One of my girlfriend's friends (a teacher) got her first vaccine on Thursday, as did two of my girlfriend's colleagues (one is asthmatic, the other, who's the one who lives in our building, mentioned he'd got it and we're not going to drill him on what his condition is).

I also received a letter at my parents' address recently asking me to phone up and make an appointment for my first dose; since they were asking me to call rather than saying 'we're giving you an appointment at this place on this date', I presume I'm not taking a dose off someone else in the queue by simply ignoring it, am I?

[Janik]

Your parents are in the UK, Sam?
If so, I don’t think anyone here is assigned a specific appointment time - each person is invited to get in contact to arrange one that suits them. You not responding (due to being on the other side of the world) won’t see a dose go to waste.

[jason voorhees]

"Your wife and daughter are back in the States, jv, right? Have they been with you until now?"
Yes and yes.

They had to go through GRU, so I was so happy they got it within 30 minutes of leaving the airport. They're only at pharmacies, because they're the only places that can store the vaccines apparently.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/AmarAmarasingam/status/1401019680639307777

[jason voorhees]

Along with Douche Donnie Jr. threatening Fauci.

I'm absolutely befuddled with what the motivation or angle is.

Especially with Covid running rampant amongst the unvaccinated, and elections coming up in 18 months.

[ursus arctos]

The base is now best motivated (and inspired to hand over more money) by conspiracy theories and the demonisation of "elites". It also creates a useful alternate villain for the guy primarily responsible for the death of more than a half million of our countrymen.

[Jimski]

https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1402168398663110657

[elguapo4]

Northern Ireland isn't increasing.

[Balderdasha]

We're up to 38,680 new cases of Covid-19 reported in the UK in the last seven days. Up more than 50% from the previous week. Given at one point we were only recording about 14,000 new cases a week, that's a significant jump. The trouble is that we now have such a terrible previous baseline that as long as "it's not as bad as it was", I'm not convinced this government will do much to stem the increase until it's too late again.

[Jimski]

Well worth reading this thread on hospital admissions in the UK. Basically, they are rising. The good news is that the vaccinated are definitely somewhat protected. But younger unvaccinated people are not protected - it would seem wise to shut things down a bit again until a greater proportion of people is vaccinated. It would be great if those who once were keen on "herd immunity" actually tried to reach it now before opening everything up.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763

[scratchmonkey]

Interesting development with the mix-and-match vaccine strategy:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01359-3

[Uncle Ethan]

What is the issue with vaccinations in the UK after such a promising initial take-up? Is it people refusing to be vaccinated or the way the vaccination process is being managed?

[caja-dglh]

I imagine it is the same as the US. Anti-Vax folk plus those uncertain enough to hope everyone else can take the (perceived) risk to make their choice OK.

[ad hoc]

I think there aren't really problems with take up in the UK. They just have a lot of people (and especially a lot of old people) to get through. I don't get the impression there's a significant amount of vaccine avoidance. (unlike here for example)

[Jimski]

I think there aren't really problems with take up in the UK. They just have a lot of people (and especially a lot of old people) to get through. I don't get the impression there's a significant amount of vaccine avoidance. (unlike here for example)

Yeah that's right. Take-up has been excellent, as far as I can tell.

[Nocturnal Submission]

In terms of increased cases, and to a limited extent (for now) hospitalisations, the main issues have been younger people still awaiting their call for vaccinations and, to a lesser extent, older, unvaccinated residents in the hotspots.

[San Bernardhinault]

My understanding is that Britain's problem, such as it is, is that the infectiiousness of the Delta variant mean that the single dose of vaccine is a bit less effective. So the successful strategy of spreading first doses around to massively reduce the Christmas wave has a consequence now that quite a lot of people are not fully vaccinated and are more vulnerable as a result. From anecdata here it looks like the NHS is desperately trying to move up lots of peoples second doses in order to counter that, now we know more about how the Delta variant interacts with vaccinated people.

But it also seems to be the case - from the data I've seen - that the rise is mostly present in pockets where there are large unvaccinated populations, which therefore don't yet have herd immunity.

[Ginger Yellow]

From anecdata here it looks like the NHS is desperately trying to move up lots of peoples second doses in order to counter that,

My own anecdatum - When I got the first shot in April I was told 10-12 weeks, then after about a month people were being told 12-16 weeks. I just got my second dose after about 7 weeks.

[Eggchaser]

I think there aren't really problems with take up in the UK. They just have a lot of people (and especially a lot of old people) to get through. I don't get the impression there's a significant amount of vaccine avoidance. (unlike here for example)

Got my second jab on Wednesday, there were two people ahead in the queue, one about 80 and the other 60, both very nervous about getting their first jab, having avoided it for some time. Kudos to the staff for taking the time to talk to them and convince them to go through with it.