Covid-19 pandemic

[ad hoc]

I'm still somewhat confused as to what's going on in Hungary. The main reasons that are given are an unhealthy population, a crumbling healthcare system, fast spreading especially in Roma ghettoes, and fairly lax lockdown measures. But these are all true of Romania too, and we've had nothing like the death rate of Hungary. The big difference, and I suspect it really is a big difference , is the existence of a much freer media here, which serves to keep that balance of reporting. In Hungary, the media just echoes what Orban says and he's been consistently focused on opening up for the economy, and denying the statistics (or at least covering them up). With no real publicly available opposition to that viewpoint, the floodgates open.

[anton pulisov]

Hungary sounds a bit like Sweden.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I'm still somewhat confused as to what's going on in Hungary. The main reasons that are given are an unhealthy population, a crumbling healthcare system, fast spreading especially in Roma ghettoes, and fairly lax lockdown measures. But these are all true of Romania too, and we've had nothing like the death rate of Hungary. The big difference, and I suspect it really is a big difference , is the existence of a much freer media here, which serves to keep that balance of reporting. In Hungary, the media just echoes what Orban says and he's been consistently focused on opening up for the economy, and denying the statistics (or at least covering them up). With no real publicly available opposition to that viewpoint, the floodgates open.

That excess deaths report suggested that Hungary was accounting for about 80% of its covid deaths, while romania seemed to be accounting for about a third, and that the situation is relatively worse in romania.

[San Bernardhinault]

There's a lot of chatter and fear around the "Indian Variant" (or Indian Variants, perhaps). Yet I've not seen anything suggesting that it's more transmissable than the Kent variant, nor that it responds to vaccines differently. Unless one of those two things are true it should make no difference to the situation anywhere the Kent variant is dominant (which I think is most places now).

[ad hoc]

That excess deaths report suggested that Hungary was accounting for about 80% of its covid deaths, while romania seemed to be accounting for about a third, and that the situation is relatively worse in romania.

Hmmm. I don't really know how bad it is in Hungary (other than via statistics) but it's not that bad here. There was a crisis about a month ago when ICU hospital beds were nearly at capacity and some people were being transported far from home to hospitals that had more capacity. But that passed fairly quickly. We've certainly never had the stuff we saw in Italy last year or Czechia this year (or the UK in both years)

[ad hoc]

I think this is possibly because life expectancy is about 10 years lower than Western Europe and so we simply have far fewer old people

[anton pulisov]

There's a lot of chatter and fear around the "Indian Variant" (or Indian Variants, perhaps). Yet I've not seen anything suggesting that it's more transmissable than the Kent variant, nor that it responds to vaccines differently. Unless one of those two things are true it should make no difference to the situation anywhere the Kent variant is dominant (which I think is most places now).

Yes, I would think that the main reason cases numbers are rising slightly in the UK is because the country is opening up while large parts of the population have yet to be fully vaccinated.

[Jimski]

Fourth successive day of week-on-week rise in the government figures. I agree that the ONS figures (much more reliable) will make interesting viewing, though they are a bit behind, so it might actually require waiting another week to be sure.

[Balderdasha]

The number of new cases of Covid-19 reported in the UK today, 2,657, is higher than any daily new case number since April 27th (16 days ago). Weekly new case numbers are up 13%. It's not a massive increase but enough to make me a bit concerned about further easing measures going ahead on Monday.

Deaths attributed to Covid-19 this week are still lower than the previous week.

[Balderdasha]

Poland has overtaken the UK today in terms of deaths per million population from Covid-19.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Hmmm. I don't really know how bad it is in Hungary (other than via statistics) but it's not that bad here. There was a crisis about a month ago when ICU hospital beds were nearly at capacity and some people were being transported far from home to hospitals that had more capacity. But that passed fairly quickly. We've certainly never had the stuff we saw in Italy last year or Czechia this year (or the UK in both years)

thing is, would you be able to tell the difference between 0.14 percent of the population dying of covid, or 0.45 percent of the population dying of covid over the course of the year? I'm not sure I would. We ultimately kind of rely on what we're told. You wouldn't really have got a good sense of the scale of the deaths in ireland even if you worked in a hospital, because most of the deaths happening in nursing homes. In order to get scenes like Italy, you have to do what the italians did, which was try and move everyone with covid into hospital, and they spent the next couple of months telling everyone else not to do this. So you get a lot of old people dying in nursing homes, or dying at home.

[Janik]

The number of new cases of Covid-19 reported in the UK today, 2,657, is higher than any daily new case number since April 27th (16 days ago). Weekly new case numbers are up 13%. It's not a massive increase but enough to make me a bit concerned about further easing measures going ahead on Monday.

Deaths attributed to Covid-19 this week are still lower than the previous week.

Deaths lag hospitalisations, that themselves lag new case reports. If this case increase is more than just statistical noise (and, crucially, even if it is indicative of a real and sustained increase (as it well might be), if infection in a population with a growing amount of vaccinated people still leads relatively often to serious cases and deaths) then we are a few days from the numbers in hospitals started to grow again and ~10 days from the death graph beginning to upturn. That is what we are waiting and seeing on... which is hugely dangerous of course because if the news is bad then two weeks has been lost when the situation was deteriorating without suitable counter-measures.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Deaths lag hospitalisations, that themselves lag new case reports. If this case increase is more than just statistical noise (and, crucially, even if it is indicative of a real and sustained increase (as it well might be), if infection in a population with a growing amount of vaccinated people still leads relatively often to serious cases and deaths) then we are a few days from the numbers in hospitals started to grow again and ~10 days from the death graph beginning to upturn. That is what we are waiting and seeing on... which is hugely dangerous of course because if the news is bad then two weeks has been lost when the situation was deteriorating without suitable counter-measures.

Thanks for this Janik.

The slow rise in cases continues, we've never got under 1,000 a day this year despite experts giving this as a target for manageable and effective track and trace.

The number of vaccinations also continues to steadily rise with the government seemingly banking on this as their strategy.

Monday sees the end of face masks in school, the advice is they only need to be worn in communal areas and where social distancing isn't possible. But they don't need to be worn in the classroom. This is where social distancing is impossible.

It's two weeks until half term for everyone, perhaps they are gambling on this being a natural break like Easter was.

[Sporting]

The Spanish government wants to maintain compulsory mask-wearing from the beginning of the next academic year.

[ad hoc]

As of tomorrow it is no longer compulsory to wear masks outside (except in some specific circumstances) in Romania. While I think it was important to insist on masks at all times for a long while, whether or not it made much of a difference to spreading, because it kept things uppermost in people's minds and acted as a constant reminder to be careful and thoughtful (and I think this was and will continue to be hugely valuable), I am so happy that I will be able to walk about the town without my motherfucking glasses constantly steaming up and rendering the whole process massively annoying

[Janik]

Thanks for this Janik.

The slow rise in cases continues, we've never got under 1,000 a day this year despite experts giving this as a target for manageable and effective track and trace.

The number of vaccinations also continues to steadily rise with the government seemingly banking on this as their strategy.

Monday sees the end of face masks in school, the advice is they only need to be worn in communal areas and where social distancing isn't possible. But they don't need to be worn in the classroom. This is where social distancing is impossible.

It's two weeks until half term for everyone, perhaps they are gambling on this being a natural break like Easter was.

Some of those things, definitely.

Yes, vaccination keeping serious cases low despite the disease remaining present in the community is the government strategy. It is not, of itself, an unreasonable strategy even if we are suspicious of the underlying motivations/dogma that makes it particularly attractive to this government. Doing otherwise, i.e. complete suppression, means more lockdowns. And as detailed on this thread over the last few pages lockdowns are not without their own negative health consequences; they may save COVID deaths but cause other ones. It becomes a balance of which is less bad (or, putting it rather starker, whose lives you choose to seriously risk... but you don’t have an option that risks nobodies). Very much a damned if you do scenario.

[Sporting]

I am so happy that I will be able to walk about the town without my motherfucking glasses constantly steaming up and rendering the whole process massively annoying

My big problem too.

[Gerontophile]

So, Wynn Casinos, normally the sensible one on the strip (aside from that whole sexual assault thing) have instigated a "no-mask" policy for guests.

Staff are to "assume, that guests without a mask, are vaccinated". (Paraphrase) And it's a shitty link, sorry. But I'm freaked out a little by this.***

https://www.reddit.com/r/vegas/comme..._guests_fully/

***If true.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Latest ONS statistics are encouraging but obviously don't account for the recent rate increases associated with the Indian variant:

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 40,800 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 31,900 to 50,900), equating to around 1 in 1,340 people.

In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive appears to have decreased in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 100 to 1,900), equating to around 1 in 4,230 people; the positivity estimate for Wales is currently very low.

In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in the two weeks up to 8 May 2021; we estimate that 1,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 300 to 3,000), equating to around 1 in 1,430 people.

In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease in the week ending 8 May 2021; we estimate that 4,200 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 7,700) equating to around 1 in 1,250 people.

[Balderdasha]

Croatia has overtaken the UK today in terms of deaths recorded from Covid-19 per million population.

[Balderdasha]

Seychelles has recorded astonishingly high numbers of new Covid-19 cases in the last week. It's running at more than 22 new cases per thousand population, or one in every 45 members of the population have tested positive in the last seven days.

[Balderdasha]

For the whole of 2020, Seychelles recorded only 275 cases of Covid-19 and zero deaths.

Now, more than 9% of the population have tested positive, and today alone, they reported more than 1,000 new cases and 4 deaths.

[ursus arctos]

Seychelles also has the highest proportion of its population fully vaccinated of any country on earth (60+ percent)

About 60 percent of those vaccinated have gotten Sinopharm, which is proving to be less effective than hoped against the current threat (Sinopharm patients are testing positive much more often than local AZ patients.)

[Jimski]

Some of those things, definitely.

Yes, vaccination keeping serious cases low despite the disease remaining present in the community is the government strategy. It is not, of itself, an unreasonable strategy even if we are suspicious of the underlying motivations/dogma that makes it particularly attractive to this government. Doing otherwise, i.e. complete suppression, means more lockdowns. And as detailed on this thread over the last few pages lockdowns are not without their own negative health consequences; they may save COVID deaths but cause other ones. It becomes a balance of which is less bad (or, putting it rather starker, whose lives you choose to seriously risk... but you don’t have an option that risks nobodies). Very much a damned if you do scenario.

I don't believe complete suppression necessarily means more lockdowns. It means a longer lockdown initially for sure. Our levels in July last year were the same as Australia's. We treated it as an excuse to open up, They clamped down. And look what happened in each country after that...

[Jimski]

Also I honestly think that it would have saved money for the government to enforce proper quarantine hotels and offer to fund one quarantine per person per year. (Bit late now, I know.)