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    This could have good on the Covid jokes thead except it ain't fucking funny any more

    Comment


      That's actually great Patrick, and has become the first picture I have ever posted in my 15 years on Facebook

      Comment


        All of the FT's pandemic coverage has been outside the paywall since the beginning.

        There is a definite dynamic at play in which areas that were especially hard hit early in the pandemic are doing a better job of adopting and respecting measures that are dampening the second wave. We see it here in NYC as well.

        Comment


          Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
          There is a definite dynamic at play in which areas that were especially hard hit early in the pandemic are doing a better job of adopting and respecting measures that are dampening the second wave. We see it here in NYC as well.
          Except England of course.

          Comment


            Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post

            Except England of course.
            I get the impression that the entire country is in denial about how bad it was (and is going to be). Italy was very clearly open and they suffered (and felt that suffering on a sort of national level)

            The country that feels an outlier here is Spain, which didn't have England's denial, but seems to be once again in the midst of a huge rise in cases

            Comment


              Can someone who is able to see the FT article either post it on here or briefly summarise the thrust of the argument?

              Comment


                Will do so in about 30.minutes, there are.charachter limit issues that complicate things

                Comment


                  Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                  Will do so in about 30.minutes, there are.charachter limit issues that complicate things

                  Cheers. No hurry.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                    Why Italy is doing better than Spain, France and the UK in this "second wave" https://www.ft.com/content/6831be3e-...2-daa82cf9ca11

                    (FT but seems to be outside the paywall)
                    If I click on this link directly, behind paywall. Copy and paste title into google and click from there - outside paywall!

                    Comment


                      The title, to save having to click to the paywalled version to get it:

                      Italy’s harsh lessons help keep second wave at bay

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by S. aureus View Post

                        If I click on this link directly, behind paywall. Copy and paste title into google and click from there - outside paywall!

                        Excellent! That worked. Cheers.

                        Comment


                          When Covid-19 struck Europe, Lombardy’s flooded hospitals and spiralling death toll provided a grim template for Italy’s neighbours. In the past weeks, however, it is offering a more upbeat, alternative path: while Spain, France and the UK are experiencing a second surge in infections after loosening lockdown restrictions, Italy has kept the disease under control.

                          New daily cases are on the rise to 1,535 from the low hundreds in June, when restrictions started easing. But this compares with more than 10,000 new cases in Spain and France. Life feels normal in most of Italy: restaurants and bars are open, people enjoy late-summer trips to the beach and children have returned to school.

                          Experts highlight three main reasons for Italy’s resilience.

                          First-mover advantage

                          For Fabrizio Pregliasco, a virologist at the University of Milan, “Italy is in a better situation than other countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain or France because we were among the first in the world to face the Covid hurricane.” Its health system and government have had more time to plan its post-lockdown response and the lifting of restrictions has been more gradual, allowing the government greater agility in reintroducing restrictions when needed.

                          Prime minister Giuseppe Conte has kept on reminding Italians to remain vigilant. Under Italy’s Covid-19 state of emergency he has the power to rule by decree, meaning his government was able to react swiftly to an uptick in new cases over the summer. By contrast, Spain’s state of alert, which granted the central government emergency powers over the regions, lapsed on June 21.

                          In August, Rome ordered a closure of discos and introduced a rule that face masks must be worn in all crowded places between 6pm and 6am. The measures, which were initially in place for a month, were extended for a further 30 days in early September.

                          Companies have been encouraged to extend remote working arrangements into the autumn with the government guaranteeing staff workplace insurance in their homes. Those that have reopened have strict protocols — including the wearing of face mask all day, daily body temperature scans, social distancing and free Covid-19 swabs.


                          High public compliance and stricter enforcement

                          Public health officials cite the high public acceptance of restrictions, such as compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport. Visitors to bars and restaurants must write down their names and numbers, a measure largely complied with during the summer.

                          According to a survey conducted by Imperial College London, 84 per cent of Italians surveyed said they would be “very or quite willing” to wear a face mask advised to by their government. This compares to 76 per cent in the UK.


                          Italy’s public health response has focused on mass testing and effective track and trace surveillance ? Diana Bagnoli/Getty

                          Rome’s Trevi fountain. Italian media said in August that a man nearby was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask ? Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters
                          Those in breach of rules are punished. In late August, Italian media reported that a 29-year-old man was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask near Rome’s Trevi fountain and telling the officers that “Covid doesn’t exist”. Businesses can be held responsible for Covid-19 infections in their premises and staff can claim damages.

                          On Monday alone police checked 50,602 people and 4,939 businesses, sanctioning 227 individuals and ordering the closure of three companies.

                          “Italians are more respectful of the measures of social distancing and against the transmission of the virus, even in the smallest commercial activity all measures are observed very scrupulously,” said Andrea Crisanti, a professor of microbiology at the university of Padua.

                          Individual behaviour, although hard to quantify, has played an important role, said Ferdinando Luca Lorini, director of intensive care at a hospital in Bergamo.

                          “We have gone from the most affected country to one of the virtuous countries in the management of the pandemic thanks to the clarity of the rules from the very beginning, and the willingness of everyone to respect them,” he said.

                          Effective testing and monitoring

                          Mr Crisanti said the public health response had focused not just on mass testing but effective surveillance of cases to track and trace anyone who has come into contact with an infected person.

                          About 2 per cent of tests give a positive result, compared with about 13 per cent of tests performed in Spain, suggesting the virus is way more widespread in the latter.

                          “Once there is a positive we test all those who may have come into contact with them. The real problem of the epidemic are the cases with no symptoms, if you do not intercept these, you do not come out of it,” he said.

                          In August, when the island of Sardinia, a popular holiday destination for Italians, emerged as a hotspot for the virus — former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and Formula One boss Flavio Briatore both contracted the virus there — authorities introduced drive-through testing at the port of Civitavecchia, the ferries hub on the mainland. Positive cases were isolated more quickly, preventing the outbreak in Sardinia from spreading to other regions.

                          While few want to tempt fate ahead of winter, there is confidence that Italy’s efforts can continue to keep the virus under control.

                          “If Italians, who have been very diligent so far with regard to all the measures, keep holding on then we should be able to manage the situation and get used to coexisting with the problem until a vaccine arrives,” said Mr Pregliasco.


                          Comment


                            Scotland has recorded 486 new positive cases in the last 24 hours - the highest daily total since the outbreak began. (With the caveat of greatly increased testing of course)
                            224 in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 107 in Lanarkshire and 57 in Lothian.
                            2 additional deaths.
                            The numbers include what has been described as a "significant" outbreak at Glasgow University, and there are new outbreaks within student halls at Aberdeen and Abertay Universities, on top of the previously reported positive cases at St Andrews & Edinburgh Napier.
                            This is going to get big, isn't it.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by ad hoc View Post

                              I get the impression that the entire country is in denial about how bad it was (and is going to be). Italy was very clearly open and they suffered (and felt that suffering on a sort of national level)

                              The country that feels an outlier here is Spain, which didn't have England's denial, but seems to be once again in the midst of a huge rise in cases
                              I was wondering about that as well.

                              Does the greater degree of regional autonomy in Spain play a role? The current wave seems to be centered in Madrid. Was that the case at the outset?

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by The Red Max View Post
                                Scotland has recorded 486 new positive cases in the last 24 hours - the highest daily total since the outbreak began. (With the caveat of greatly increased testing of course)
                                224 in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 107 in Lanarkshire and 57 in Lothian.
                                2 additional deaths.
                                The numbers include what has been described as a "significant" outbreak at Glasgow University, and there are new outbreaks within student halls at Aberdeen and Abertay Universities, on top of the previously reported positive cases at St Andrews & Edinburgh Napier.
                                This is going to get big, isn't it.
                                Fucking hell they should have gone with online learning at the unis and fuck the vulture capitalists with their shiny student accommodation.

                                Comment


                                  2 of my daughter's friends at university have tested positive. It seems only a matter of time before she does too (they're all in student accommodation, 4 to a room - her roommates are so far fine, but it can;t be long away)

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                    2 of my daughter's friends at university have tested positive. It seems only a matter of time before she does too (they're all in student accommodation, 4 to a room - her roommates are so far fine, but it can;t be long away)

                                    Best of luck. If she's unlucky to catch the virus hopefully your daughter gets the mildest of mild doses, if that.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                      When Covid-19 struck Europe, Lombardy’s flooded hospitals and spiralling death toll provided a grim template for Italy’s neighbours. In the past weeks, however, it is offering a more upbeat, alternative path: while Spain, France and the UK are experiencing a second surge in infections after loosening lockdown restrictions, Italy has kept the disease under control.

                                      New daily cases are on the rise to 1,535 from the low hundreds in June, when restrictions started easing. But this compares with more than 10,000 new cases in Spain and France. Life feels normal in most of Italy: restaurants and bars are open, people enjoy late-summer trips to the beach and children have returned to school.

                                      Experts highlight three main reasons for Italy’s resilience.

                                      First-mover advantage

                                      For Fabrizio Pregliasco, a virologist at the University of Milan, “Italy is in a better situation than other countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain or France because we were among the first in the world to face the Covid hurricane.” Its health system and government have had more time to plan its post-lockdown response and the lifting of restrictions has been more gradual, allowing the government greater agility in reintroducing restrictions when needed.

                                      Prime minister Giuseppe Conte has kept on reminding Italians to remain vigilant. Under Italy’s Covid-19 state of emergency he has the power to rule by decree, meaning his government was able to react swiftly to an uptick in new cases over the summer. By contrast, Spain’s state of alert, which granted the central government emergency powers over the regions, lapsed on June 21.

                                      In August, Rome ordered a closure of discos and introduced a rule that face masks must be worn in all crowded places between 6pm and 6am. The measures, which were initially in place for a month, were extended for a further 30 days in early September.

                                      Companies have been encouraged to extend remote working arrangements into the autumn with the government guaranteeing staff workplace insurance in their homes. Those that have reopened have strict protocols — including the wearing of face mask all day, daily body temperature scans, social distancing and free Covid-19 swabs.


                                      High public compliance and stricter enforcement

                                      Public health officials cite the high public acceptance of restrictions, such as compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport. Visitors to bars and restaurants must write down their names and numbers, a measure largely complied with during the summer.

                                      According to a survey conducted by Imperial College London, 84 per cent of Italians surveyed said they would be “very or quite willing” to wear a face mask advised to by their government. This compares to 76 per cent in the UK.


                                      Italy’s public health response has focused on mass testing and effective track and trace surveillance ? Diana Bagnoli/Getty

                                      Rome’s Trevi fountain. Italian media said in August that a man nearby was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask ? Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters
                                      Those in breach of rules are punished. In late August, Italian media reported that a 29-year-old man was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask near Rome’s Trevi fountain and telling the officers that “Covid doesn’t exist”. Businesses can be held responsible for Covid-19 infections in their premises and staff can claim damages.

                                      On Monday alone police checked 50,602 people and 4,939 businesses, sanctioning 227 individuals and ordering the closure of three companies.

                                      “Italians are more respectful of the measures of social distancing and against the transmission of the virus, even in the smallest commercial activity all measures are observed very scrupulously,” said Andrea Crisanti, a professor of microbiology at the university of Padua.

                                      Individual behaviour, although hard to quantify, has played an important role, said Ferdinando Luca Lorini, director of intensive care at a hospital in Bergamo.

                                      “We have gone from the most affected country to one of the virtuous countries in the management of the pandemic thanks to the clarity of the rules from the very beginning, and the willingness of everyone to respect them,” he said.

                                      Effective testing and monitoring

                                      Mr Crisanti said the public health response had focused not just on mass testing but effective surveillance of cases to track and trace anyone who has come into contact with an infected person.

                                      About 2 per cent of tests give a positive result, compared with about 13 per cent of tests performed in Spain, suggesting the virus is way more widespread in the latter.

                                      “Once there is a positive we test all those who may have come into contact with them. The real problem of the epidemic are the cases with no symptoms, if you do not intercept these, you do not come out of it,” he said.

                                      In August, when the island of Sardinia, a popular holiday destination for Italians, emerged as a hotspot for the virus — former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and Formula One boss Flavio Briatore both contracted the virus there — authorities introduced drive-through testing at the port of Civitavecchia, the ferries hub on the mainland. Positive cases were isolated more quickly, preventing the outbreak in Sardinia from spreading to other regions.

                                      While few want to tempt fate ahead of winter, there is confidence that Italy’s efforts can continue to keep the virus under control.

                                      “If Italians, who have been very diligent so far with regard to all the measures, keep holding on then we should be able to manage the situation and get used to coexisting with the problem until a vaccine arrives,” said Mr Pregliasco.


                                      TBH, I don't really see a huge difference between Italy and the UK as described above, other than perhaps in terms of public attitude. I see or hear about little things which just suggest to me that a lot of people over here could be taking more precautions, or changing their behaviour, than they are so far doing.

                                      Comment


                                        On a related note, in this town there's a smallish university, Merrimack College (technically it's in North Andover, not Andover). 17 students in the same dorm tested positive, and the entire dorm of 200+ is now in quarantine (this seems like a guaranteed way to get the other 180 students infected, but that's a different thing).

                                        This is, of course, not in the least bit surprising to anyone with half a brain, and more evidence of what a daft thing it was to go back to in-person learning before the virus is completely under control. Massachusetts is in more control than many other places - about 350 new cases per day in a population of 7 million, and a positive rate of 0.5% because testing seems to be very widespread. But clearly 400 new cases a day is more than enough of a smouldering flame that it can reignite quickly. You'd need numbers in the tens, and a proper track and trace system identifying sources for each new infection before you should be comfortable re-starting.

                                        It is also not surprising given our own experiences last Friday. We went for outdoor dining at a Mexican restaurant in town (note: Mexican food in suburban New England isn't all that much to write home about). The outdoor seating was taken and we went indoors. There was a fairly large, very drunken group of early 20s kids celebrating a birthday (probably 21st), walking around the inside unmasked, shouting and singing. We left after a very quick margarita, but if I end up infected in the next few days I can almost certainly identify the source. The kids still don't want to be responsible, and the authorities are still not sending them signals that they should be.

                                        Comment


                                          Does the UK have a sensible trace system for restaurants like Italy appears to in that article? There was only one town I've been (ironincally in Arkansas) where every visitor to a restaurant or bar was putting their name and phone number in so that the restaurant could trace customers back if another customer or member of staff had tested positive. Even the comparatively good bits of the US I've been in don't seem to have tried that - probably because of some perceived freedom bullshit.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                            Does the UK have a sensible trace system for restaurants like Italy appears to in that article? There was only one town I've been (ironincally in Arkansas) where every visitor to a restaurant or bar was putting their name and phone number in so that the restaurant could trace customers back if another customer or member of staff had tested positive. Even the comparatively good bits of the US I've been in don't seem to have tried that - probably because of some perceived freedom bullshit.

                                            Well, since the lockdown was eased I've been to a pub for food and/or drinks on four occasions and on each occasion I've had to supply a name and contact number. Not sure if that's obligatory, though (think so but could be wrong). And when my son got the 'rona he gave his list of recent contacts to the authorities, which resulted in a score of delighted individuals heading into self-isolation. We still don't have a functioning GPS/Bluetooth-type system up-and-running yet, though.

                                            Comment


                                              Oh! OK. That's much better than what I've seen across most of this country.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                                On a related note, in this town there's a smallish university, Merrimack College (technically it's in North Andover, not Andover). 17 students in the same dorm tested positive, and the entire dorm of 200+ is now in quarantine (this seems like a guaranteed way to get the other 180 students infected, but that's a different thing).

                                                This is, of course, not in the least bit surprising to anyone with half a brain, and more evidence of what a daft thing it was to go back to in-person learning before the virus is completely under control. Massachusetts is in more control than many other places - about 350 new cases per day in a population of 7 million, and a positive rate of 0.5% because testing seems to be very widespread. But clearly 400 new cases a day is more than enough of a smouldering flame that it can reignite quickly. You'd need numbers in the tens, and a proper track and trace system identifying sources for each new infection before you should be comfortable re-starting.

                                                It is also not surprising given our own experiences last Friday. We went for outdoor dining at a Mexican restaurant in town (note: Mexican food in suburban New England isn't all that much to write home about). The outdoor seating was taken and we went indoors. There was a fairly large, very drunken group of early 20s kids celebrating a birthday (probably 21st), walking around the inside unmasked, shouting and singing. We left after a very quick margarita, but if I end up infected in the next few days I can almost certainly identify the source. The kids still don't want to be responsible, and the authorities are still not sending them signals that they should be.

                                                Home of the Warriors!

                                                State College is now in the NYT's top five fastest growing case numbers but PSU is persisting with in-person classes. To be honest, I don't think it's a terrible idea. At least at this point. Sending all the students home now would be even worse for the population overall than keeping them here and I doubt actual classes - which are strictly monitored and controlled - are where most of the cases are spreading. It's all the socializing, especially off campus. Bars and restaurants are supposed to be enforcing reduced capacity, but I don't know if they are doing that very well. I see a lot of students wearing masks, but a lot aren't. Maybe they're just doing that with their housemates, but I'm not sure.

                                                The student government - a fairly useless deliberative body - had a long debate about a resolution requesting that the university go to online classes only. It didn't pass. The students don't want to go home.

                                                So far, the number of students in special isolation accommodations is tolerable and the number of people with COVID-19 in our hospital has fluctuated from one to three, well within capacity. But there's no way to really contain the madness to the student population. That's why the school district sent everyone home and is evaluating it week to week (but they are going to have sports).

                                                The PA legislative Republicans insistence on trying to fight the governor "FOR FREEDOOMMMMMMMM" is really unconscionable. They passed a law saying that individual school districts should be able to decide if they want to have sports and how many fans will be allowed at those sports. He vetoed it, but they might override it. They claim they want to trust the individual school districts. They still don't understand that viruses don't respect county boundaries, let alone school district boundaries, which is why this shit needs to be decided on a statewide level. (Really, it should be decided on a national or international level, but that train has left the station).

                                                Their "trust in school boards" shows no understanding of how local politics work. Of course the school boards are going to push their luck. They're beholden to the small group of Karens and football Dads who actually vote in school board elections and insist that their precious Kaitlyn and Connor get to play in their precious fucking football/soccer/field hockey season so she can get a scholarship to (fill in the name of a school that is highly unlikely to give a scholarship to their kid).

                                                By trying to explain why football matters, an NFL coach manages to make the best argument imaginable for why it doesn't matter.

                                                Comment


                                                  6,178 new cases in the UK today and 37 more deaths.

                                                  Comment


                                                    That's a higher official daily tally of cases in the UK than every single previous day apart from April 10th.

                                                    Comment

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