Originally posted by Lang Spoon
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Covid-19 pandemic
Collapse
X
-
-
Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View PostFWIW, I spoke to a local pharmacist a few days ago re. 'flu jabs, suppressing 'flu-related demand being a key strand of the strategy to cope with predicted COVID-19 demands on the NHS. She said that they had run out of the free vaccines for the older cohort (I didn't realise that there were different ones for different age groups) but that they did have supplies of the paid-for version for younger people. She said that though the Government was planning to provide free jabs for the younger groups it wouldn't start until around November, would be a phased process and, given predicted supply issues, might not happen at all for everyone.
In short, if you want a 'flu jab but were going to wait until you get one for free, you might want to give serious consideration for just ponying up for one now. I was quoted a price of GBP 12.99.
This has left me feeling a bit smug because I told my girlfriend back in April or May that I reckoned this would be one side effect.
Comment
-
Thinking about a few numbers. So, approximately 2% of the USA has been confirmed to have been infected with Covid-19 (20,897 confirmed cases per million population). And over 200,000 people have died there. Let's assume that the 2% is a huge underestimate due to asymptomatic people not bothering to get tests and tests sometimes being unavailable even for those who want them. So maybe 10% of the population has actually been infected so far. So, if the virus was allowed to run unchecked through the remaining 90% of the population and remained equally deadly, that could mean a total of 2 million dead by the time herd immunity is reached. I hope I'm wrong.
Comment
-
Doing the same thought experiment for the UK. Here, only about 0.5% of the population have been confirmed to have been infected, with 41,000+ deaths. So, let's assume actually 2.5% have been infected, leaving 97.5% who haven't been, which could mean a total of 1.64 million dead before herd immunity is reached. Terrifying.
Comment
-
Sadly I doubt it. We're by far the only European country that will have to do so and it will be presented as "unpredictable but unavoidable", "how could we have known?", "We're doing all we can in difficult circumstances", "other countries caught by surprise too".
Comment
-
- Aug 2008
- 25226
- The zero meridian
- Swansea, Gaziantepspor and the Zeugma Franchise
- Bahlsen Choco Leibniz Dark
The new lockdown is meant to be scheduled at the October half term, with schools either taking their break for the last whole week of October or the end of October and the beginning of November meaning only a week of education is lost.
Judging from the attitude of our head this seems likely, however I doubt we can even make it to that point.
I also thought herd immunity had been discredited as a tactic.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Sam View Post
Perhaps some small hope on this front: down here south of the equator, the annual influenza and cold outbreaks have barely registered this year. Distancing, increased hygiene, masks and so on have resulted in Australia recording 315 (three hundred and fifteen) influenza cases this winter, compared with 131,000 last year. In Argentina the WHO says eight people died from influenza (three of whom also had COVID-19) this winter. The figure over the previous five winters was 16 per 100,000, which given Argentina has about 41 million people means about 6,560 influenza deaths per year. New Zealand, meanwhile, hasn't had a single case of influenza this year.
This has left me feeling a bit smug because I told my girlfriend back in April or May that I reckoned this would be one side effect.
Comment
-
- Mar 2008
- 18780
- Revelling In The Hole
- England, Chelsea and Tooting and Mitcham. And Surrey CCC. And Wimbledon Dons Speedway (RIP)
- Nairn's Cheese Oatcake
Originally posted by Sam View Post
Perhaps some small hope on this front: down here south of the equator, the annual influenza and cold outbreaks have barely registered this year. Distancing, increased hygiene, masks and so on have resulted in Australia recording 315 (three hundred and fifteen) influenza cases this winter, compared with 131,000 last year. In Argentina the WHO says eight people died from influenza (three of whom also had COVID-19) this winter. The figure over the previous five winters was 16 per 100,000, which given Argentina has about 41 million people means about 6,560 influenza deaths per year. New Zealand, meanwhile, hasn't had a single case of influenza this year.
This has left me feeling a bit smug because I told my girlfriend back in April or May that I reckoned this would be one side effect.
That's really interesting, Sam.
If the COVID-19-related distancing and hygiene protocols are being well-observed we should see lower rates of infection across a great swathe of illnesses.
Comment
-
Nobody has learnt the lessons from the first time. There is a 5-6 week lag time from infection to deaths. First people contract the virus, then it often takes 10-14 days for symptoms to appear and it takes 2-3 weeks from symptoms first appearing for people to get really ill and die. So even if we imposed immediate marshal law right now and stopped everyone from leaving their house tomorrow morning, we'd still see an increase in deaths in the next 3 weeks.
Comment
Comment