Covid-19 pandemic

[Balderdasha]

4,322 new cases in the UK today. Highest daily total since May 7th and the first time we've had more than 4,000 cases in this "second wave".

[Balderdasha]

27 deaths in the UK today. 118 deaths in the last week. The previous week had 77 deaths.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I thought that this from the Beeb was interesting:

The ONS infection survey, which tests thousands of people in random households whether they have symptoms or not, estimated there were around 6,000 new infections a day in the week to 10 September - up from 3,200 the week before.

It found infection rates were highest in the North West and London, and children aged two to 11 and young people aged 17 to 34 had most positive tests.

I've been a bit surprised at the comparatively low official London virus figures and concomitant lack of local restrictions, but it seems that the real level of infection is much higher than currently indicated, or perhaps it's more accurate to say that the underestimation in London is more pronounced.

I believe that the Government is basing their decisions re. local lockdowns on verified positive case figures, but perhaps they should be leaning more of these sample studies to pinpoint the areas of greatest concern.

[ursus arctos]

Doing so would further highlighythebdyafunctionnof the testing regime

[Antepli Ejderha]

I thought that this from the Beeb was interesting:





I've been a bit surprised at the comparatively low official London virus figures and concomitant lack of local restrictions, but it seems that the real level of infection is much higher than currently indicated, or perhaps it's more accurate to say that the underestimation in London is more pronounced.

I believe that the Government is basing their decisions re. local lockdowns on verified positive case figures, but perhaps they should be leaning more of these sample studies to pinpoint the areas of greatest concern.

Apparently 4 London boroughs are at risk of a local lockdown; Harrow, Hounslow, Enfield and Redbridge are the four.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Apparently 4 London boroughs are at risk of a local lockdown; Harrow, Hounslow, Enfield and Redbridge are the four.

Really. That's interesting. The stats. on the BBC website have the rates per 100,000 as 25, 37, 30 and 38 respectively, which (a) don't seem that high and (b) aren't that different from a number of other boroughs, or lower in Harrow's case. Maybe the most up-to-date stats. show a different picture or the Government is indeed using sample stats.

(A quick look at the surrounding areas shows Spelthorne, St. Albans and Windsor/Maidenhead, for example, up in the 40s so they'll do well to avoid having their knuckles rapped if Harrow cops for it).

[Nocturnal Submission]

I've just received a text from my dental surgery. They're offering COVID-19 antibody tests!

[Balderdasha]

Doing so would further highlighythebdyafunctionnof the testing regime

"highlighythebdyafunctionnof" is my word of the week. I just need to figure out how to slip it into casual conversation.

[ooh aah]

Ah see I just assumed that was UA saying something intelligent that I didn't understand

[Satchmo Distel]

Is there still mileage in the hypothesis that the mixed messaging from the UK is deliberate rather than merely the result of people promoted beyond their competence? I think the hypothesis can be supported by the fact that the constantly shifting of goalposts (and blatant lying about them) mirrors Brexit quite closely.

The bad faith of the UK response seems to be relatively less than that of the US response but that's like comparing Machiavelli with Comical Ali.

[ursus arctos]

Towards what end?

It strikes me as also reflecting the near complete dedication to out-sourcing and the lack of any coordination among the forms being used.

[Gangster Octopus]

Apparently 4 London boroughs are at risk of a local lockdown; Harrow, Hounslow, Enfield and Redbridge are the four.

I've been expecting that.

[Hot Pepsi]

All of that.

Maybe this is what UA already said, but there's clear evidence that the authorities, such as they are, just never wanted to say "We just don't have the resources to do what we really need to do." That's why the CDC said that asymptomatic people "don't need to be tested." In reality, we just couldn't do that, so they triaged.

Likewise, the university here is only trying to test 1% of the student/staff population per day and, on some campuses, it's not even managing that. And the turnaround times are not what you'd want. Meanwhile, illinois has - or claims to have - tested everyone at least before they came back to campus.

I have not seen anyone at Penn State explain how much all of this is costing and how that factored into its plan.* (Narrator: It certainly did.) Nor have I seen anyone at Illinois explain how they can afford to do as many tests as they are and how they are managing the lag times.

We just get "we are following the best medical advice....blah blah fucking blah." As I've said before, even in fairly established areas of research**, you can get 3 doctors in a room and get 4 opinions about the same topic. That is not an explanation. That is an Argument from Authority, which is one of the classic logical fallacies.

I, for one, would just like to see all of this shit laid out in clear language that a responsible adult could understand. A lot of other people do too.

But right now, in the US, I don't think the message would get through. At least it wouldn't get through to the people who really need to fucking hear it.

Fauci has tried to explain things in terms of "the best information we have so far" or "risk benefit judgements" and it seems that too many people just don't want that. They want to be told what to do, but if it turns out that what they were told before turns out to be wrong based on better information, they lose all trust in that source. And if what they're being told to do is inconvenient, they'll find the one "expert" among 100 that tells them what they want to hear, and ignore the other 99. Or they'll just rely on complete bullshit conspiracy theories. Epistemic closure.

Like fucking children.


* As it's playing out, the total number of cases is alarming, but the number of hospitalizations is not. So far.



**And this is not really "an established area of research." Epidemiology is in general, but there's still so much we don't know about how this virus works and predicting the behavior of large groups of people under extreme circumstances is difficult, needless to say. The only relevant data we have for this situation is from the outbreak 100 years ago and from the more limited outbreaks in Asia. None of that is terribly useful when trying to predict how, for example, the outbreak will proceed on a US university campus where much of the instruction is online.

I'm not saying that to piss on epidemiology or all the great research going on. Quite the opposite.

[ursus arctos]

Excellent post and very sadly true

That same phenomenon explains the original reluctance to recommend masks, which was primarily motivated by fears of hoarding that denied essential protection to front line health workers.

[Balderdasha]

My dad is very keen on the "it's impossible to predict exactly what will / would have happened" line. I think there was plenty of evidence that:
a) we should have locked down sooner and harder
b) there is lots of stuff we could and should be doing now to prevent a second wave that could potentially be worse than the first.
Given the current situation, this would be balderdasha's current plan of action.
1) Shut everything non-essential immediately. Pubs, restaurants, non-essential shops, hairdressers, offices, all of it. If possible, keep schools open, but only under the proviso that if there is a single case in a school, the whole school immediately shuts down for two weeks.
2) Get cases down as low as possible. And I don't mean 1,000 new cases a day. I mean get it down to 10 or fewer new cases a day.
3) Quarantine anyone arriving in the country from anywhere for two weeks. We're an island. It's possible. Commandeer empty hotels for this purpose if necessary.
4) Invest heavily in proper PPE (watch one of the videos about the level of PPE they were using in Wuhan) and a proper test and trace system.
5) Only when cases are as low as 10 or fewer cases per day, start to gradually reopen. And only if you have a totally rigorous test and trace system which is going to track down every single contact of every infected person and test them and quarantine them. None of this only testing people with symptoms. Test anyone who's been anywhere near anyone with symptoms. This is how you isolate it.
6) Anyone who wants to bugger off abroad in a pandemic just has to accept that they have to quarantine for two weeks when they get back. No exceptions.

None of this is going to happen and it's going to be a total shitstorm, but it's therapeutic to rant.

[Balderdasha]

Also, everyone to wear masks at all times in public. Compulsory for anyone over the age of 10 who doesn't have a special exemption (autism, asthma, possibly other conditions I haven't thought of). Children under 10 encouraged to wear masks if possible (my 4 year old can put up with wearing a mask for short periods of time like the taxi back from the hospital).

[Balderdasha]

7) All NHS workers, including the cleaning staff, to get an immediate 10% pay rise.

[Hot Pepsi]

Excellent post and very sadly true

That same phenomenon explains the original reluctance to recommend masks, which was primarily motivated by fears of hoarding that denied essential protection to front line health workers.

Yes, though I think there were legitimate questions about the efficacy of masks, but nobody really knew because how could they? The only data available on widespread mask wearing was from very different places during very different epidemics. And they only work in conjunction with other measures like distancing and hand-washing, so there was no way to "bench test" how that would actually play out.

The logical response to that is, of course, why not err on the side of caution and promote masks? The response to that, at the time, was that it "might create a false sense of security." That's probably true - I see a lot of people with masks not doing the six-feet distance - but I suspect the CDC's calculus would have been a lot different if masks had already been widely available.

So hopefully, next time - and there will be a next time - it will be masks on(!) right away, even if it turns out that virus can't travel more than six inches out of one's face without falling to the ground and turning bright fluorescent green while making an an audible noise that sounds an awful lot like Beethoven's 9th.

[Hot Pepsi]

My dad is very keen on the "it's impossible to predict exactly what will / would have happened" line. I think there was plenty of evidence that:
a) we should have locked down sooner and harder
b) there is lots of stuff we could and should be doing now to prevent a second wave that could potentially be worse than the first.
Given the current situation, this would be balderdasha's current plan of action.
1) Shut everything non-essential immediately. Pubs, restaurants, non-essential shops, hairdressers, offices, all of it. If possible, keep schools open, but only under the proviso that if there is a single case in a school, the whole school immediately shuts down for two weeks.
2) Get cases down as low as possible. And I don't mean 1,000 new cases a day. I mean get it down to 10 or fewer new cases a day.
3) Quarantine anyone arriving in the country from anywhere for two weeks. We're an island. It's possible. Commandeer empty hotels for this purpose if necessary.
4) Invest heavily in proper PPE (watch one of the videos about the level of PPE they were using in Wuhan) and a proper test and trace system.
5) Only when cases are as low as 10 or fewer cases per day, start to gradually reopen. And only if you have a totally rigorous test and trace system which is going to track down every single contact of every infected person and test them and quarantine them. None of this only testing people with symptoms. Test anyone who's been anywhere near anyone with symptoms. This is how you isolate it.
6) Anyone who wants to bugger off abroad in a pandemic just has to accept that they have to quarantine for two weeks when they get back. No exceptions.

None of this is going to happen and it's going to be a total shitstorm, but it's therapeutic to rant.

It's not going to happen, just like it won't happen here, because it would either require putting so many people into poverty that it would trigger massive civil unrest OR it would require that millionaires and billionaires share a lot of their wealth with all of the people who make the economy actually work on a day to day basis. Either one of those things would expose the lies at the heart of conservatism and they can't have that. (I mean, expose them to a much greater extent than they already are).

So instead they've decided to just help people out a bit, not ask for any major sacrifices from the wealthy, punt the cost to our children, and to the extent that is not enough, just pretend like it is. They hope that can bluff them through at least until the next crisis hits.

[ursus arctos]

The fact that a number of states have put bars, clubs and tattoo parlours ahead of schools is literally criminal

[Diable Rouge]

As expected, Dublin moves to level 3 tonight - cultural centres close, restaurants are restricted in their activities and religious services also cease. Only one family can visit a household, and only elite sporting events can be held.

[elguapo4]

But closing all pubs is level 4. When they previewed this system at the start of the week they said that there would never be more than two levels at any one time in Ireland, in the last 12 hours, Dublin alone has gone from level two to level 3 with bits of level 4 as well.

The whole thing is completely unworkable anyway. I don't know if you've been sent the gif that's going around, with a picture of a crowded Indian train with the message " The DART to Bray" ,but if the weather is decent tomorrow, that's where half of Dublin will be. If I fancied it, I could get a number 70 bus five minutes walk away, and be in a pub in Dunboyne in half an hour.

[Diable Rouge]

Also, Varadkar reportedly had coffee thrown at him today - which isn't worthy of special note in itself, but nothing to prevent it occurring to a member of an opposition party in the future.

[Lang Spoon]

What kind of plan has schools staying open even in Level 5 as well? The wee rats will keep infecting their grannies.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Is there still mileage in the hypothesis that the mixed messaging from the UK is deliberate rather than merely the result of people promoted beyond their competence? I think the hypothesis can be supported by the fact that the constantly shifting of goalposts (and blatant lying about them) mirrors Brexit quite closely.

The bad faith of the UK response seems to be relatively less than that of the US response but that's like comparing Machiavelli with Comical Ali.

It's always worth going back to the start of the crisis, where the priority was clearly stated as "ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed" with the chilling admission that "many of your loved ones will be taken before their time".

Since then its been one long modelling game, attempting to turn the dials up and down, while getting the punters to turn on each other when the government's own decisions send the needle too far into the red.