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    Thanks for the FT link ursus arctos. The coverage of Sweden seems quite contradictory - either it's described as a huge success or complete failure.

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      More people have now been confirmed as infected with Covid-19 worldwide than the population of Delhi, India, which at a population of 28.5 million+ is the world's second largest city.

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        Schools are now telling parents to stop requesting tests because all their children are viral (but don't have the specific symptoms of covid). One parent on FB has shared a decision tree that starts with "would you have kept your child off before Covid?" If the answer is yes then keep them off and don't test them is the advice.

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          Does anyone know - if you had Covid, fairly mildly, and then some weeks later you were experiencing symptoms that could be down to the long-tail effect - would you test positive or negative?

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            It depends if you still have the virus in your system, unless it was an antibody test. And even then we don't know how long the antibodies last.

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              I guess what I'm asking is does the long-tail/long-haul effect mean that you still have the virus in your system? I am sort of guessing yes, but is that the case?

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                Originally posted by Uncle Ethan View Post
                Thanks for the FT link ursus arctos. The coverage of Sweden seems quite contradictory - either it's described as a huge success or complete failure.
                If we are looking at deaths:
                Something like 550 dead per million in Sweden, compared to 7 dead per million at the moment in South Korea.

                If we are looking at the economy:
                Swedish economy forecast to shrink by 7%, compared to 1.3% in South Korea.



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                  Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                  I guess what I'm asking is does the long-tail/long-haul effect mean that you still have the virus in your system? I am sort of guessing yes, but is that the case?
                  Based on skimming these, if you do still have the virus in your system it's at a level to give a negative test:

                  https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/com...-20200911.html
                  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/h...il&login=email
                  https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/healt...ess/index.html

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                    Thanks.

                    I've been having persistent throat problems since possibly contracting it 6 weeks ago. But it sounds from those pieces that this is not really a symptom of post-Covid Covid.

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                      Meanwhile the Tory government has declared that grouse shooting and other field sports are exempt from the "rule of six". Reportedly this is what held up the publication of the new guidelines, and a single-item meeting was arranged on Saturday afternoon to decide (which was then pulled in case anyone objected).

                      (edit - already reported on the Tory corruption thread, I now see).
                      Last edited by Walt Flanagans Dog; 14-09-2020, 14:20.

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                        And exemptions for driven shoots of up to 30 attendees.

                        https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b6b4850803110f

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                          And too late (twice over)

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                            Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                            I guess what I'm asking is does the long-tail/long-haul effect mean that you still have the virus in your system? I am sort of guessing yes, but is that the case?
                            Other viruses cause "post-viral" fatigue which implies the virus has gone. If it damages the body's mechanisms then it doesn't still need to be present for the effects to still be felt.

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                              https://twitter.com/dougsaunders/status/1305534636727111682

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                                I don't think Trump's almost certain tactic of claiming a week before the election to have found a vaccine is going to fool anyone who wasn't already voting for him.

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                                  Like spiders, there should be some sort of warning for pictures like that!
                                  I think tacitly assumed in that article is that the vaccination provides long (multi-year) protection, though it does mention potential virus mutation as a factor.

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                                    I actually tried to paste a quote from the piece rather than the tweet, but couldn't get it to copy over on my phone.

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                                      Do we need to vaccinate 7 billion people? Wouldn't vaccinating even 2 billion people (fairly evenly spread geographically, but among the people most likely to interact with large numbers of other people) be effective at reducing the R number to the point where the disease should begin to peter out?

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                                        Interesting question and one that I cannot answer

                                        What I am certain of is that it will prove very difficult politically for rich countries not to make a vaccine available to the entire population.

                                        But then I live in a place that had millionaires engaged in bidding wars for personal ventilators in March.

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                                            India has reached 80,000+ deaths, the third country to do so.

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                                              North America is the second continent to reach 8 million+ cases and the first continent to top 290,000+ deaths.

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                                                Oceania has reached 30,000 cases and 850 deaths, still performing better than 70 other individual countries.

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                                                  I can't see the article behind the paywall. However, as someone who works in the industry, I think 2024 is not feasible. For one, there is a global shortage of borosilicate glass. We are struggling to get enough vials to cover our production needs for the next few years, Given the supply of vials is a single deliverable, out of a myriad of things that go into producing a dose unit for a patient, I fully expect a range of similar challenges and issues across the board. 2024 seems way too ambitious (and that is before governmental and company politics come into it)

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                                                    This is fine [dot] jpg

                                                    https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1305547725581279238

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