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    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
    From anecdata here it looks like the NHS is desperately trying to move up lots of peoples second doses in order to counter that,
    My own anecdatum - When I got the first shot in April I was told 10-12 weeks, then after about a month people were being told 12-16 weeks. I just got my second dose after about 7 weeks.

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      Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
      I think there aren't really problems with take up in the UK. They just have a lot of people (and especially a lot of old people) to get through. I don't get the impression there's a significant amount of vaccine avoidance. (unlike here for example)
      Got my second jab on Wednesday, there were two people ahead in the queue, one about 80 and the other 60, both very nervous about getting their first jab, having avoided it for some time. Kudos to the staff for taking the time to talk to them and convince them to go through with it.

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        Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
        But it also seems to be the case - from the data I've seen - that the rise is mostly present in pockets where there are large unvaccinated populations, which therefore don't yet have herd immunity.
        Maybe. But for example here in Bromley were on 70% first dose, 50% second dose and we;ve gone from 7 cases/100k to 49\100k in about 3 weeks. That's a 7 fold increase in a pretty well vaccinated area. For instance 50 - 54 age range has an 84.5% take up so far, climbing in each age range to 94% - 95% in over 80s.
        Younger ages are less vaccinated obviously, as they haven't been gotten to yet. But we're still at nearly 50% for 30-34 year olds.

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          Originally posted by hobbes View Post

          Maybe. But for example here in Bromley were on 70% first dose, 50% second dose and we;ve gone from 7 cases/100k to 49\100k in about 3 weeks. That's a 7 fold increase in a pretty well vaccinated area. For instance 50 - 54 age range has an 84.5% take up so far, climbing in each age range to 94% - 95% in over 80s.
          Younger ages are less vaccinated obviously, as they haven't been gotten to yet. But we're still at nearly 50% for 30-34 year olds.

          The publicly available statistics are limited, of course, but my assumption is that the rise in cases is due to the Delta Variant ripping through the unvaccinated young, the prematurely-incautious semi-vaccinated and the older vaccine-dodgers. And because rates were comparatively low, just 100 cases in quite a large area will register as a large percentage increase.

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            Originally posted by hobbes View Post

            Maybe. But for example here in Bromley were on 70% first dose, 50% second dose and we;ve gone from 7 cases/100k to 49\100k in about 3 weeks. That's a 7 fold increase in a pretty well vaccinated area. For instance 50 - 54 age range has an 84.5% take up so far, climbing in each age range to 94% - 95% in over 80s.
            Younger ages are less vaccinated obviously, as they haven't been gotten to yet. But we're still at nearly 50% for 30-34 year olds.
            One thing that's interesting is how the vaccines appear to be much less good against the Delta Variant after one dose. The efficacy appears to be 33% three weeks after a single dose, while it's 60% (AZ) or 88% (Pfizer) after the full course.

            That's a big difference from non-variant and earlier variant covids.

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              I get my second jab next week. The local GPs grouped together and took over a disused nightclub nestled in the woods nearby. It's very well run.

              The amount of anti-vaxx nonsense is disheartening. We've had one anonymous letter posted to all of the houses on the street full of conspiracy theory links (to Vernon Coleman videos and the like) and overheard our otherwise sensible and lovely neighbours talking about how they wouldn't be "putting that shit into our bodies". Sigh.

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                The FDA advises that one throw the Innova tests in the bin. (These are the tests that seem to form the main plank of the government's strategy in schools, and indeed out of schools.)

                https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/...-communication

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                  https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403348896504504323

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                    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post

                    One thing that's interesting is how the vaccines appear to be much less good against the Delta Variant after one dose. The efficacy appears to be 33% three weeks after a single dose, while it's 60% (AZ) or 88% (Pfizer) after the full course.

                    That's a big difference from non-variant and earlier variant covids.
                    I wonder what that means for the Jansen single dose vax?

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                      Interestingly, the growth of the Delta variant seems rather less exponential here than elsewhere.

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                        Originally posted by hobbes View Post

                        I wonder what that means for the Jansen single dose vax?
                        Interesting question. I've not seen any mention of it anywhere, but I'd guess that it means nothing - the real difference is partial and complete vaccination regimes and a single dose of Janssen is a complete regime.

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                          Interesting thread about spread in the UK

                          https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1403299554448007173

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                            https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403348896504504323?s=21

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                              Feels like we're never getting out of this. Sage member calling for permanent social distancing today.

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                                This is interesting, readable but none too encouraging: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

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                                  The Delta variant has arrived here in Canada but it's only affected a few specific localities (so far) and they're being addressed individually. Most provinces are at about 70% of first jab uptake (Alberta 68%, BC 73%) and are slowly opening up. Early next week we'll likely see gyms opening up and groups of up to 20 being allowed. We'll also be allowed to travel outside our health district, though how far remains to be seen. Everyone I've asked in the last few days is getting their second vaccination this month (Pfizer, over 50s) or early next month (Astrazeneca, under 50s.) Considering we were told after the first shot in April it would be four months before the second, that's a massively accelerated schedule.
                                  Last edited by Amor de Cosmos; 12-06-2021, 01:33.

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                                    A twitter thread on Delta spread in the UK. I can't believe they don't enforce masks in schools...

                                    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293582279294983

                                    This to me is the key:

                                    "And allowing virus mutations to continue at high rates as the virus replicates, alongside vaccination is a recipe for disaster - as this is the most favourable condition for selection towards escape. It isn't enough to surveil virus adaptation- we *must* prevent it."

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                                      Originally posted by Janik View Post
                                      Your parents are in the UK, Sam?
                                      If so, I don’t think anyone here is assigned a specific appointment time - each person is invited to get in contact to arrange one that suits them. You not responding (due to being on the other side of the world) won’t see a dose go to waste.
                                      Brilliant, thanks Janik. I was almost certain that was the case given the wording of the letter, but it's nice to have it confirmed. And yes they're in the UK.

                                      Next week the City starts microchipping jabbing 50–54 year olds, and after that there are only another two five-year ranges left before it's my turn. And the Russian starter ingredients have arrived, so Argentina will be turning out its own Sputnik V soon. That should be good news for here and for surrounding countries, as having a producer on the same continent means not having to wait for long flights to Russia, India and China to get things to what is, in terms of flight connections (and bearing in mind the US reluctance to export), the world's most isolated continent from current centres of production (Australasia being much closer to China and India than here).

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                                        Looks like the 21st June grand reopening is off in England, thankfully.

                                        More than 8,000 new cases were reported yesterday and over 1,000 people in hospital.

                                        Deaths still remain low but are creeping up.

                                        It's all deeply worrying to be honest with the government again not listening to the expert advice or learning from previous experience. I can see another lockdown, a fire break one, coming at the beginning of July and schools closing early.

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                                          I suspect they'll limp through with schools open to the end of term in order to save face. Of course they'll effectively be closed for thousands (millions?) by the end, what with all the self-isolation and whatnot. Expect the government response to be to tell schools not to isolate entire bubbles, again in order to save face. They're not interested in reducing spread - look at their stance on masks in schools.

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                                            Some thoughts about Covid in the UK.

                                            Newspaper articles are currently hailing that "80% of the UK's adult population has some level of Covid antibodies" whether that's from vaccination or previous infection. Which is great. But.

                                            That leaves 20% of the adult population, or over 10.7 million people, with zero antibodies.

                                            There are also over 14.5 million under 18s in the country who may have some antibodies from infection but won't have any from vaccination yet. Even being wildly generous and assuming that 20% of them have antibodies (wildly generous because the UK has only recorded less than 7% of the population as having tested positive for Covid-19 despite having widespread testing including in schools).

                                            So by my calculations, we have a likely population of over 22.3 million individuals with zero immunity, not to mention people with only partial immunity because they've either only had one vaccination so far or because they only had a very mild dose of infection from a different variant.

                                            And we're all sitting in a tiny, tiny, overcrowded island which is perfect for transmission.

                                            I don't think a delay of four weeks to the "fully opening up" on June 21st is going to cut it. It's growing exponentially again and I think we're going to need another lockdown. My hopes of my children being in school after the summer holidays are dwindling.

                                            If looking for a very minor silver lining, this might make it harder for my company to enforce any sort of return to office in September (current expectation is that I will have to go in at least once a week from September 13th).
                                            ​​​

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                                              The company I work for has already said they won't be expecting people back in the office as normal in 2021.

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                                                My big, perhaps over-optimistic hope is that the summer holidays combined with vaccination will see this variant off. The main spread seems now to be in schools, and if you remove that vector, it's got to have a major effect. The main worry is allowing so much spread amidst a partially vaccinated population will produce optimal conditions for a new vaccine-resistant variant to emerge. In which case we're toast.

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                                                  Originally posted by Jimski View Post
                                                  The company I work for has already said they won't be expecting people back in the office as normal in 2021.
                                                  Mine’s going for the hybrid model, but they were expecting that to be from 21st June.

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                                                    I am worried about what the Delta variant is going to do in the parts of the US with poor vaccination efforts. I wouldn't be surprised to see travel restrictions re-imposed between the North East US and the rest of the country in a few months when it takes off properly in the south. We now have case numbers in New England which are getting low enough that you might conceivably be able to run a proper test, trace, backtrace and isolate on each of the cases - with a positivity rate down below 0.5% in Massachusetts it is now not an insurmountable problem to find these people and everyone they interacted with. Combined with a population that's already 60% fully vaccinated we might be able to keep Delta at bay here in a way that's not possible when the baseline is higher.

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