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    Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
    Was it inevitable that there would eventually be a wave that took off in India or South America?
    South America had one of the first bad waves. It used to have higher infection rates and deaths than Europe, but then Europe took over.

    This is the first time it's taken off like this in India though.

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      I'd forgotten that. The recent Brazilian version seems to have eclipsed things.

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        The daily numbers in India are still relatively modest on a per capita basis: greatest daily number so far is approx 170k recorded cases, which would be equivalent per captia to around 8.5k cases a day in the UK (compared with our January peak of around 60k cases per day). But the extreme steepness of their upward curve right now is alarming. And of course they have scale. [Edit: and potentially more under-recording due to logistical challenges in the poorer and more crowded sections of their cities I imagine entirely speculatively.]
        Last edited by Evariste Euler Gauss; 12-04-2021, 11:28.

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          Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
          Only 7 deaths reported in the UK today. It's Sunday, but still, I don't know when it was last that low. Possibly summer 2020, possibly not since the start of the pandemic.
          Although bizarrely there were more deaths reported in the past 7 days (251) than the 7 days before that (245). Almost certainly a blip given that the hospitalisation figures have continued to go down the whole time.

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            The worldwide official Covid-19 death toll of 2.959 million+ is now higher than the population of Armenia.

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              British variant not more deadly, according to Lancet study.

              They did a better method than that crappy Nature paper from a couple of months ago. They compared outcomes for patients who ended up in hospital, rather than "community wide" as in the Nature paper (which will always make the previous variants appear less deadly due to acquired immunity in the population). You can kind of assume that anybody who ends up in hospital doesn't have acquired immunity for whatever variant they are infected with.
              Last edited by anton pulisov; 13-04-2021, 13:37.

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                Originally posted by Fussbudget View Post
                Although bizarrely there were more deaths reported in the past 7 days (251) than the 7 days before that (245). Almost certainly a blip given that the hospitalisation figures have continued to go down the whole time.
                The previous 7 days included the Easter weekend when there were all kinds of delayed reporting in addition to the usual weekend ones.

                So on the radio this morning they said they were surge testing in my borough because they had detected an outbreak of the South African variant. And they want everyone in the borough who lives or works here to get a PCR test. There are 300,000 residents in the borough. So I checked and there are eight places to get tested in the whole borough. I walked to the nearest (25 minutes) earlier because it was closing at 3:30. There was a notice up saying that testing finished at 12. There were others there as nonplussed as I was, but it turned out they were handing out home tests round the back, albeit slowly. How they can hope to get that level of testing is beyond me even if they get the message to everyone which they won't. They are saying it's precautionary and it turns out it is in respect of someone who returned to the country from Africa two months ago. Anyway, I'll be taking the test. We've been down around ten new cases per 100,000 for the last week.

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                  The USA has exceeded nearly 32 million confirmed cases of Covid-19.

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                    Which borough, Capybara?

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                      Lambeth. I've done the test (not pleasant) and I'm taking it back in the morning.

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                        Good luck with it. I've been really impressed with how low the figures have been in my old stamping ground of Lambeth and Southwark. I know how tough lockdown must have been for all the apartment and flat dwellers there. To be so disciplined with such a high population density is impressive.

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                          Thanks. I'm not too concerned personally. I've been vaccinated and have continued to stay away from other people as much as possible - not much more than five minutes in a shop at any time. Lambeth took over the testing and tracing in full last month and seem on top of things - new testing stations have opened today and they have been tracking this particular instance since it arrived with a single person in February. Given the general low figures across the borough I'm hoping this is doing what should be done and making sure the variant has not spread.

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                            India is the current epicentre of Covid-19. It reached 185,248 new cases yesterday, a new high, compared with around 151,000 new cases for the whole of Europe and 143,000 new cases for South America.

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                              Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                              India is the current epicentre of Covid-19. It reached 185,248 new cases yesterday, a new high, compared with around 151,000 new cases for the whole of Europe and 143,000 new cases for South America.
                              Disagree,

                              Without wishing to disparage the worryingly large numbers, India has nearly double the population of Europe and nearly 3 times the population of South America.

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                                I meant purely in terms of current daily case numbers, and direction of travel (cases increasing exponentially in India currently).

                                Per capita, I agree that India still has far lower case numbers than elsewhere (by a factor of around ten e.g. nearly 1% of India's population has tested positive for Covid-19 vs nearly 10% of the USA population).

                                India's death rate is still even lower. 124 deaths per million people vs 1,736 deaths per million in the USA.

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                                  As mentioned earlier in the thread, there is the potential for things to get really bad in India. If India reached the death rate of Czechia, it could see 3.5 million deaths (compared with 172,000 recorded to date).

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                                    Over 800,000 new cases of Covid-19 recorded worldwide yesterday, the third highest daily tally ever. Nearly 200,000 of them were in India.

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                                      Deaths in India are also going up. The last two days have seen more than 1,000 deaths attributed to Covid-19, for the first time since October 17th 2020.

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                                        Public Health Wales are going to stop releasing daily numbers on Saturdays and issue 2 days worth on Sundays. There were 0 deaths reported yesterday.

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                                          Over 800,000 new cases of Covid-19 recorded worldwide yesterday, the third highest daily tally ever
                                          Fourth highest I think, behind the numbers on 6th, 7th and 8th January. But point taken!

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                                            Heartbreaking article about Covid-19 in children and babies in Brazil: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56696907

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                                              Kyrgyzstan and Zambia have now officially reported more cases of Covid-19 than China.

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                                                Ireland has now officially reported more deaths from Covid-19 than China.

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                                                  Cases in Turkey are currently rising considerably.

                                                  There were two earlier waves where daily case numbers peaked at about 14,000 new cases per day in April 2020 and about 33,000 new cases per day in December 2020, before falling to relatively low numbers each time.

                                                  Now, Turkey has reached over 62,000 new cases per day and numbers still seem to be rising. Daily deaths are also at their highest level of nearly 290 per day.

                                                  Turkey is believed to have significantly underreported its case and death numbers.

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                                                    Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                                                    Heartbreaking article about Covid-19 in children and babies in Brazil: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56696907

                                                    Heartbreaking indeed. The numbers of infant deaths is terrifying and grossly under-reported, both officially and in terms of media exposure globally.

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