Covid-19 pandemic

[Nefertiti2]

Sacked for poor Internet

bet that doesn’t happen at Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/parkerciccone/status/1364854396421570560?s=21

[Balderdasha]

The number of confirmed infections worldwide, 113 million+, is now higher than the population of Ethiopia.

[Balderdasha]

The number of confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide has exceeded 2.5 million, and is now higher than the population of Namibia.

[Balderdasha]

For comparison, the Spanish conquest of the Aztec empire is estimated to have led to around 2.3 million deaths.

The American Civil War is estimated to have led to 650,000-1 million deaths.

The Spanish Civil War led to around 500,000-1 million deaths.

The Vietnam War led to an estimated 2.4 million-4.3 million deaths.

[Patrick Thistle]

I presume by now everyone has seen enough memes about getting pissed on 21 June to know that my fears about how people are going to act weren't unfounded at all.

You mean like this one

[Balderdasha]

Deaths in the USA have reached 518,000+, which is higher than the populations of either Sacramento, California or Mesa, Arizona.

Mesa is another huge American city that I've never heard of.

[ad hoc]

Mesa is basically a suburb of Phoenix (which is why you can't be expected to have heard of it)

[Balderdasha]

The UK current death toll of 121,747 is now higher than the population of Blackburn, Lancashire.

[Balderdasha]

I spoke to a university friend yesterday. Her husband's aunt, who was 78 and in excellent physical and mental health, caught a urine infection a few weeks ago and had to go into hospital. Her Covid-19 blood test result was inconclusive (she had zero Covid symptoms at the time) so they put her on a Covid ward. She then promptly caught Covid, deteriorated rapidly and died within a few days.

It feels like everyone is currently focussed on the timetable out of lockdown, but hundreds of people are still dying from this every day.

Meanwhile, my dad's cousin and entire three generation family all also caught Covid-19 (cousin's husband went to help their son with DIY, so grandparents, parents and children all caught Covid-19). The cousin survived it despite having an underlying lung condition but they've all been feeling rather grotty.

My mum told me this while simultaneously complaining that other people have been allowed to hug their grandchildren...

[Patrick Thistle]

I spoke to a university friend yesterday. Her husband's aunt, who was 78 and in excellent physical and mental health, caught a urine infection a few weeks ago and had to go into hospital. Her Covid-19 blood test result was inconclusive (she had zero Covid symptoms at the time) so they put her on a Covid ward. She then promptly caught Covid, deteriorated rapidly and died within a few days.

That sounds like "death by policy", one of the Laws of Unintended Consequences.

Someone has stuck to the rules and effectively killed her.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Sacked for poor Internet

bet that doesn’t happen at Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/parkerciccone/status/1364854396421570560?s=21

That's absolutely disgraceful. I hope she gets her job back and the outsourcing scumbags get theirs.

(Why does TSSA have to spoil that release with some Labour tub-thumping nonsense?)

[Tactical Genius]

Well, sometimes in life there are more questions than answers. That seems especially so where COVID-19 is concerned, at least at the moment.

Indeed, what questions did it pose to you?

I think that your interpretation of the tone of the articles is rather cynical. They just seem to be confirming that cases are being under-reported in Africa, as they are in Russia, Turkey, many South American countries and quite a few others.

The underreporting is due to a lack of testing kits, there are expensive and all the supplies have been brought up in advance by the Western Nations.

As for covid deaths, see above plus the excess deaths are being underreported by most nations including the UK who have changed the way they have counted people at least twice to keep the numbers down.

That's important to know for a number of reasons, not least if there are virus control lessons to be learned. If those countries, like virtually all others, failed to limit the spread of a highly contagious disease it's hardly a cause for shame. But we need to be honest about it.

The people in the global medical profession have a pretty good idea what is going on in Africa and elsewhere as they discuss things themselves rather than leave it all to the politicians to manage communications.

Also, the growth of social media and the internet has negated the ability of African nations to control the flow of information in and out of their countries. The fact we have not seen full morgues or piles of dead black bodies should tell you there is no widespread cover up here.

I can't remember where I read it, but there was a country in Africa (I think west Africa) where due to financial constraints they only had a limited number of test kits. But they had some genius computer modeller who wrote some program that would determine how to maximise the number of test kits to get a picture of whether a certain village was Covid free or not. If you can't test everyone, then you test this Person A and Person B, who based on their age and employment profile are most likely of everyone to be infected. It resulted in an incredibly accurate picture of the national spread.

The Japanese also did something similar.

Meanwhile Europe can't get its shit together.

Good point which further reinforces what I said above.

I find it interesting the BBC being hailed here as some source of truth where it is being lambasted as the chief purveyor of propogandist bullshit on almost every other thread on OTF.

[Balderdasha]

Brazil is the second country to officially exceed 250,000 deaths from Covid-19.

[Patrick Thistle]

The people in the global medical profession have a pretty good idea what is going on in Africa and elsewhere as they discuss things themselves rather than leave it all to the politicians to manage communications.

Also, the growth of social media and the internet has negated the ability of African nations to control the flow of information in and out of their countries. The fact we have not seen full morgues or piles of dead black bodies should tell you there is no widespread cover up here.

We haven't seen pictures from inside the full morgues in the UK. Or the additional temporary morgues that have been set up. That is underreported in this country.

(I mean I get what you might be inferring - that if African footage existed it would be more likely to be broadcast because it plays into media narratives about Africa, and it hasn't been)

I find it interesting the BBC being hailed here as some source of truth where it is being lambasted as the chief purveyor of propogandist bullshit on almost every other thread on OTF.

As the first person to share the story about lack of reporting infrastructure it wasn't with any sense of reliability or trustworthiness. Although I did note they credited their reporters on the ground in a number of countries, which felt more healthy than usual. It's more than we sometimes get in stories about Wales or Scotland.

[Balderdasha]

UK numbers down week on week again.

New cases. Last Thursday 12,057. Today 9,985. Reduction of about 17%.

Deaths. Last Thursday 454. Today 323. Reduction of about 29%.

[Balderdasha]

The USA has exceeded 29 million cases of Covid-19.

[Etienne]

That sounds like "death by policy", one of the Laws of Unintended Consequences.

Someone has stuck to the rules and effectively killed her.

Yeah, unfortunately that's most likely the case - but if she had been an asymptomatic carrier and they'd put her in a non Covid ward, they could have killed the ward. It's a horrible position. I guess you'd have hoped they could have kept her on her own until they had clear results. Very sad either way.

[San Bernardhinault]

Having told EEG to not worry, I am slightly concerned about the data from Massachusetts which is beginning to look like the current fall is stalling out. 7 day average case counts are actually up slightly on a few days ago, and only very marginally - 4% - down on a week ago. I'm not going into full blown panic mode yet - there are signs in the data that are still OK, including the positivity rate drifting down still; and the fall from two weeks ago to one week ago was huge. All of which might suggest that last week's numbers might have been outliers - perhaps nobody went to get tested because the weather was really shitty? Average tests numbers are up around 8% which would explain at least some of the bottoming out.

Anyway, maybe it is time to keep a closer eye on what's happening. Until more data comes in, it's definitely not time to ease up on restrictions here.

[ursus arctos]

I am pretty sure that there were weather-related impacts on testing (and likely reporting) that have distorted trends in many parts of the country.

[Glass Half Empty]

I think it's useful context to know when comparing countries. We've got used to the posts saying more people have died from Covid in the UK than in the whole of Africa. But if death data isn't being collected in African countries then it's not a useful comparison.

(We see this all the time with data comparisons when countries are collecting different data or calculating things differently. It's not an Africa thing.)

Edit: and if African countries do appear to have done a better job then it's worth looking at that in detail as a learning point. The Nigerian antibodies studies are useful for trying to estimate a baseline infection rate.

I’ve assumed that the relatively low numbers of both cases and deaths in Africa are due to the contrasting demographic profiles with those of the west; specifically the very low numbers of elderly as a percentage of total population.

Anyway, Also on anomalies of reporting (or plain deception). This story has been bubbling around for a number of days. If there were indeed significant numbers of deaths in Wuhan in the last 3 months of 2019 the WHO isn’t exactly shouting this from the rooftops.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.r...31.html/ampRFA

[Diable Rouge]

Spot the error here:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1365047870370512896

In reality, much like England, the Government only envisages a gradual return to normality once approximately 80% of the population has been vaccinated.

[Patrick Thistle]

Yeah, unfortunately that's most likely the case - but if she had been an asymptomatic carrier and they'd put her in a non Covid ward, they could have killed the ward. It's a horrible position. I guess you'd have hoped they could have kept her on her own until they had clear results. Very sad either way.

The hospital I used to be based in prior to WFH was divided into Red (Covid), Amber (unknown tba) and Green (confirmed non-Covid) wards. But in early January a consultant told me they had lost all their amber and green wards and there was Covid everywhere. Without single rooms for every patient containment is a massive issue.

[anton pulisov]

Was in Stockholm today to get some paperwork done. Drove there. Walked around for a bit in the city. Cafes full of people stuffing themselves with cake and chatting away with each other. Not a mask to be seen anywhere. Shopping streets thronging with people. Gyms full of people pounding away on the treadmill.

If you'd told me there was a pandemic on, I wouldn't have believed you.

[Logan Mountstuart]

Only 323 deaths today. But that's OK. In fact, very acceptable. Because everything is fine now. Do what the fuck you want because by June 21st it's all over. Official.

And nothing ever happened. You have the best vaccinating government in the world. So move along.

[Patrick Thistle]

Thread about Long Covid.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1355637599029899267?s=19