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    https://twitter.com/ntarnopolsky/status/1364283466309906435?s=21

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      The future is vaccines for the rich and then the rest can die. Plenty more where they came from.

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        The possibility that eugenic decisions are driving these selective vaccination cases is very worrying.

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          It's also terrible policy even if you were a eugenicist, I think. Effectiveness seems to be about 80-85% (95% efficacy from the trials, plus vaccinating more vulnerable groups, plus screw ups in administering the vaccine, plus screw ups in storage), so you still want overall herd immunity otherwise you're putting 20% of the population you're trying to protect at high risk by having the sickly still cleaning the houses of and making coffee for the vaccinated elite.

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            Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
            Does anyone know if there is data showing hospital acquired infections as opposed to community transmission? I wonder how many new cases currenly are people catching it in healthcare settings.
            Our trust does collate that information internally, but I don't believe it is sent to NHS England or Public Health England. I'm not 100% sure as I haven't been involved in the Covid return since the turn of the year, that wasn't one of the questions then and I don't believe it has changed since.

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              Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
              It's also terrible policy even if you were a eugenicist, I think. Effectiveness seems to be about 80-85% (95% efficacy from the trials, plus vaccinating more vulnerable groups, plus screw ups in administering the vaccine, plus screw ups in storage), so you still want overall herd immunity otherwise you're putting 20% of the population you're trying to protect at high risk by having the sickly still cleaning the houses of and making coffee for the vaccinated elite.
              Yes, I said something to this effect upthread but good to read it nicely articulated.

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                https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1364185998037561347?s=20

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                  There seems to be a bit of a misleading tone to some of these African articles. For a start Nocturnal Submission article seems to provide more questions than answers. As for Paul S article, it implies that nobody is the wiser if people are alive or dead which is definitely not the case.

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                    Originally posted by Tactical Genius View Post
                    There seems to be a bit of a misleading tone to some of these African articles. For a start Nocturnal Submission article seems to provide more questions than answers. As for Paul S article, it implies that nobody is the wiser if people are alive or dead which is definitely not the case.

                    Well, sometimes in life there are more questions than answers. That seems especially so where COVID-19 is concerned, at least at the moment.

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                      I’ve been feeling the same way as TG about the Africa articles. I’ve not been able to articulate it, but it seems to be put out there as a way of diverting attention away from the fact that African countries appear to have done a far better job at pandemic control than European and North American countries. “Africans are backwards and don’t collect their data properly” is a much easier thing to swallow than “Africans appear to be more competent and their public more tolerant of policy and less feckless in the middle of an outbreak”.

                      I’m sure there are data collection problems, but I’m also pretty sure that they’re being used to paint a much bigger picture of how primitive the Africans are.

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                        Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                        I’ve been feeling the same way as TG about the Africa articles. I’ve not been able to articulate it, but it seems to be put out there as a way of diverting attention away from the fact that African countries appear to have done a far better job at pandemic control than European and North American countries. “Africans are backwards and don’t collect their data properly” is a much easier thing to swallow than “Africans appear to be more competent and their public more tolerant of policy and less feckless in the middle of an outbreak”.

                        I’m sure there are data collection problems, but I’m also pretty sure that they’re being used to paint a much bigger picture of how primitive the Africans are.
                        Well, I'm not sure that is what TG is implying. He can confirm or deny. But, respectfully, I think that your interpretation of the tone of the articles is rather cynical. They just seem to be confirming that cases are being under-reported in Africa, as they are in Russia, Turkey, many South American countries and quite a few others. That's important to know for a number of reasons, not least if there are virus control lessons to be learned. If those countries, like virtually all others, failed to limit the spread of a highly contagious disease it's hardly a cause for shame. But we need to be honest about it.

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                          I think it's useful context to know when comparing countries. We've got used to the posts saying more people have died from Covid in the UK than in the whole of Africa. But if death data isn't being collected in African countries then it's not a useful comparison.

                          (We see this all the time with data comparisons when countries are collecting different data or calculating things differently. It's not an Africa thing.)

                          Edit: and if African countries do appear to have done a better job then it's worth looking at that in detail as a learning point. The Nigerian antibodies studies are useful for trying to estimate a baseline infection rate.
                          Last edited by Patrick Thistle; 24-02-2021, 13:54.

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                            Anyway back to Wales. The Wednesday bounce this week was up from 4 deaths yesterday to 13 today. However case numbers continue to drop. Less than 250 new cases reported today. I think that's the first time this side of the second wave that it's been below 300.

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                              And this map suggests large swathes of Wales are safe (apart from possible marauding goats and the other usual hazards)

                              https://twitter.com/Lowri_Williams/status/1364549330510708742?s=19

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                                I can't remember where I read it, but there was a country in Africa (I think west Africa) where due to financial constraints they only had a limited number of test kits. But they had some genius computer modeller who wrote some program that would determine how to maximise the number of test kits to get a picture of whether a certain village was Covid free or not. If you can't test everyone, then you test this Person A and Person B, who based on their age and employment profile are most likely of everyone to be infected. It resulted in an incredibly accurate picture of the national spread.

                                The Japanese also did something similar.

                                Meanwhile Europe can't get its shit together.

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                                  Europe has been a total disgrace for the past year. It's a bullshit excuse that countries (Esp East Asia and Oceania) have fared better cos they had the "advantage" of previous SARS outbreaks. The Irish govt has had a year to put backward tracing in place and they are still fucking only promising it. And not hiring public health doctors or paying them enough. Schools are about to open and there's no clear guidance let alone rules on ventilation.

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                                    What i find incredible is the way Australia and NZ diverged from the standardised mess that Europe and the USA have followed, they are part of the same broad cultural and political spectrum we belong to yet they choose very different strategies.

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                                      I am obviously very far away from it, but it seems to me that NZ was the key there, and that their success essentially forced Australia into an approach that wouldn't have been the default choice of the Murdochians (though they do love their travel bans)

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                                        Better UK new cases number today. Wednesday on Wednesday fall of over 20 per cent (12718 down to 9938) - very much better than the previous Weds on Weds, so that should bump up the weekly fall rate in the 7 day rolling average daily new cases figure from around 12 per cent to 14 per cent or so.

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                                          Deaths also down considerably week on week in the UK. Last Wednesday 738 deaths from Covid-19 reported, today 442. Still terrifyingly high. Still 40 times higher than the number of daily deaths before schools reopened last September.

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                                            I presume by now everyone has seen enough memes about getting pissed on 21 June to know that my fears about how people are going to act weren't unfounded at all.

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                                              Originally posted by Seven Saxon Kings View Post
                                              I presume by now everyone has seen enough memes about getting pissed on 21 June to know that my fears about how people are going to act weren't unfounded at all.
                                              There is absolutely no way that date can be backtracked now, they would be riots...

                                              So much for cautious approach

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                                                The one thing the Irish govt have done right re their new reopening strategy is not to give dates. So of course the Howls of Outrage have begun, some Examiner columnist fuckhead longing for Johnsonian Certainty. "We've suffered enough!" Covid doesn't care how bored you are.

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                                                  https://twitter.com/joenewsguy/status/1364721227655438338

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                                                    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                    I am obviously very far away from it, but it seems to me that NZ was the key there, and that their success essentially forced Australia into an approach that wouldn't have been the default choice of the Murdochians (though they do love their travel bans)
                                                    NZ have done extremely well, but it was the the state governments that took control in Australia. Literally two days before the first lockdown the PM was boasting of how he was going to go to a rugby league game and nobody needed to worry about COVID. The State Premiers put a stop to that and effectively took over, even running international quarantine, which is a federal responsibility.. The Federal government went so far as to join forces with Mining magnate Clive Palmer in challenging WA's border closure in the High Court before bailing when the public backlash terrified them.

                                                    There have subsequently been Federal cabinet members lining up to criticise any Labor state PM (Queensland, Victoria, WA) and praising Liberal ones (NSW, SA).

                                                    The failures have come in aged care, vaccine acquisition and occasionally quarantine - each of which is a Federal responsibility. The only area they have done okay in is increased payments for retaining people on payrolls and those looking for work or studying, but that ends in March and chaos will ensue.

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