Covid-19 pandemic

[Nocturnal Submission]

For reference

https://twitter.com/bbchealth/status/1363719050287865857?s=19

Direct link to article
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-55674139

A nice touch - they named all their researchers in various countries.

That's really interesting, thanks for posting the link.

I must confess that I get extremely irritated when asked to unfavourably compare and contrast COVID-19 figures for the UK with some other part of the world where statistic-gathering is far less developed. I've no idea how badly hit Africa has been but it's almost certainly a lot worse than the currently available figures would suggest.

[Antepli Ejderha]

This is driven by the economic pressure to ensure people are available to go back to work. That's my hunch why they're prioritising the very little kids who need the most attention at home.

They are doing this in Wales and Scotland but not in England, it's the big bang approach.

[Eggchaser]

Those Zahawi clips saying first week of March is 3 weeks after mid-April - bloody hell! Still no doubt Keir Starmer will delicately avoid being critical of it because focus groups.

Lousy Smarch weather.

[Antepli Ejderha]

It's a bit early, but unless you go back then, kids will be off school until close to the end of April because it is a short term coming up. It's the best worse choice imo and as a teacher I accept it.

Which is the reason why they shouldn't be doing this. Another 3 weeks and that buys them an additional 2.5 weeks at Easter.

By mid April the weather will be better, it'll be much lighter and most importantly the vast majority of the vulnerable and the over 50s will have been vaccinated.

This approach is thoroughly reckless, the current data shows it. But the economy...

[greenhouse]

So, anyone else think it's incredibly reckless, opening all the schools at once on March 8 in the face of clear and grave misgivings from Whitty and the teaching unions? The numbers are/will be nowhere near low enough, surely. Be nice for our opposition to raise an objection, but of course, Starmer's committed to the same course, no ifs or buts...

Surely the number of cases become less relevant the more people are vaccinated.

And, as the parent of an only child 10-year-old, who is expected to go for weeks at a time without even speaking to someone his own age, he has suffered enough. He desperately needs school and social contact.

You cannot simply look one-dimensionally at Covid, there are other valid factors to take into account.

[Patrick Thistle]

They are doing this in Wales and Scotland but not in England, it's the big bang approach.

Oops. I need to pay more attention. Especially as some kids have gone back to school this week in Wales.

[Patrick Thistle]

That's really interesting, thanks for posting the link.

I must confess that I get extremely irritated when asked to unfavourably compare and contrast COVID-19 figures for the UK with some other part of the world where statistic-gathering is far less developed. I've no idea how badly hit Africa has been but it's almost certainly a lot worse than the currently available figures would suggest.

Yes. I've felt sceptical of the Covid stats from Africa for a while particularly given how damaging Covid has been in the black community in the UK and USA. It's not a reflection on the clinicians working there - it doesn't matter how good you are if the infrastructure isn't there to collect data effectively.

[Patrick Thistle]

Surely the number of cases become less relevant the more people are vaccinated.

And, as the parent of an only child 10-year-old, who is expected to go for weeks at a time without even speaking to someone his own age, he has suffered enough. He desperately needs school and social contact.

You cannot simply look one-dimensionally at Covid, there are other valid factors to take into account.

I've seen a lot of posts along these lines and I have sympathies for the kids but I don't find it compelling enough to risk another spike in infections. The danger is reopening schools too soon will make another lockdown more likely. Unless there was evidence that sustained lockdown was worse than in-out-in-out uncertainty, which is equally damaging.

Arguably not closing the schools earlier last year is what did for Christmas (not that "saving Christmas" was a sensible priority). That may have damaged a lot more people's mental health for the sake of keeping kids on school for a few more days.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Oh joy. The UK new cases number out today, 10,641, is actually HIGHER than the figure for the previous Monday, 9,765. So, after several weeks of decline, rapid a while ago but recently very slow, the 7 day rolling average new cases number will actually be going UP today. Having fallen only to a level (around 11k per day) which is at least an order of magnitude greater than we should be tolerating or taking as a sound basis for relaxations.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Obviously we want the new infections number to keep on declining and quickly, but I'm much more interested in the mortality and hospitalisation numbers. Given that it's those who are most vulnerable to death or serious illness rather than those most likely to contract or spread the virus that have been prioritised in the vaccine rollout, I'd expect cases to remain high for a while, but given the profile of the unvaccinated group the expectation would be that most infections would be mild or asymptomatic.

[johnr]

Some of this might not hold in the UK. My mum and her sister, both over 80 and both through Ist vaccination, live 40 miles from each other and are desperate to see and hold each other. My mum can get her neighbour, 65 and a cab driver about to be vaccinated, to drive her there and back in a couple of weeks time. It's hard to say that she shouldn't do it, and harder to say that she won't be able to do it until the end of May at the earliest.

[Capybara]

Oh joy. The UK new cases number out today, 10,641, is actually HIGHER than the figure for the previous Monday, 9,765. So, after several weeks of decline, rapid a while ago but recently very slow, the 7 day rolling average new cases number will actually be going UP today. Having fallen only to a level (around 11k per day) which is at least an order of magnitude greater than we should be tolerating or taking as a sound basis for relaxations.

There were well over 100,000 more tests recorded compared to last week. I'm not sure what that means. I've been tracking my local area and it's continuing to fall.

[San Bernardhinault]

So, having seen Johnsons’s new timetable I am concerned. The timetable broadly doesn’t look terrible in itself, but Johnson is defining it by date rather than by data. He’s not saying that so-and-so can reopen once infection and hospitalization numbers have reduced to safe points. He’s just saying “23 May” or whatever apparently totally independent of whether a fourth wave is starting.

[Balderdasha]

Deaths today in the UK are at least down on last week and will likely continue in that direction for a couple of weeks as deaths always lag new cases. 230 deaths recorded last Monday, 178 today.

[Capybara]

So, having seen Johnsons’s new timetable I am concerned. The timetable broadly doesn’t look terrible in itself, but Johnson is defining it by date rather than by data. He’s not saying that so-and-so can reopen once infection and hospitalization numbers have reduced to safe points. He’s just saying “23 May” or whatever apparently totally independent of whether a fourth wave is starting.

I think, to be fair, the dates he's given are the earliest these things can happen if all goes well and that they will be reviewed in due course. But mentioning actual dates is dangerous as the likes of the Sun will broadcast it as 'the pubs will open on ...' and people will expect it. I've already seen someone proclaiming that we can go to football from 17 May as if it's fact (even though there won't be much football left by then).

[Moonlight Shadow]

Stay at home order is lifted on the 29th of March, that's pretty much the only thing I was truly interested in. It means i cam resume a modicum of travel for my outdoors activities.

Wfh looks set to continue until June too.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I can't take my eyes off of Boris's signer.

He's like a chubby Mr Bean.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I think, to be fair, the dates he's given are the earliest these things can happen if all goes well and that they will be reviewed in due course. But mentioning actual dates is dangerous as the likes of the Sun will broadcast it as 'the pubs will open on ...' and people will expect it. I've already seen someone proclaiming that we can go to football from 17 May as if it's fact (even though there won't be much football left by then).

The "no earlier than" caveat got trampled as soon as he said it. Twitter is full of the sort of chat you describe, and memes of England fans watching the last World Cup, pointing out that England play the Czech Republic on the 22nd of June.

[Nefertiti2]

The governement's own modelling thinks its crazy.

https://twitter.com/ProfDaveAndress/status/1363932372895432707?s=20

but all those deaths will make the NHS a more appealing investment

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Stay at home order is lifted on the 29th of March, that's pretty much the only thing I was truly interested in. It means i cam resume a modicum of travel for my outdoors activities.

That was my first milestone too, and was hoping to take a long weekend on the weekend before Easter to get out and about a little bit further (to then promptly get as far away from other people as possible), but it'll wait another week.

[Moonlight Shadow]

That was my first milestone too, and was hoping to take a long weekend on the weekend before Easter to get out and about a little bit further (to then promptly get as far away from other people as possible), but it'll wait another week.

Booked a cottage in the middle of nowhere South Lakes way for third week in April, see what happens.. cancellation policy us very flexible.

[Snake Plissken]

The "no earlier than" caveat got trampled as soon as he said it. Twitter is full of the sort of chat you describe, and memes of England fans watching the last World Cup, pointing out that England play the Czech Republic on the 22nd of June.

It's almost as if that was the idea.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

It's almost as if that was the idea.

Could have been worse - England v Scotland is on Friday 18th.

[johnr]

The "no earlier than" caveat got trampled as soon as he said it. Twitter is full of the sort of chat you describe, and memes of England fans watching the last World Cup, pointing out that England play the Czech Republic on the 22nd of June.

This account gas got nearly 20,000 followers in a few hours

https://twitter.com/DaysUntil21June/status/1363924074574073857?s=20

[Janik]

So, having seen Johnsons’s new timetable I am concerned. The timetable broadly doesn’t look terrible in itself, but Johnson is defining it by date rather than by data. He’s not saying that so-and-so can reopen once infection and hospitalization numbers have reduced to safe points. He’s just saying “23 May” or whatever apparently totally independent of whether a fourth wave is starting.

There is an actual logic underlying it though. Each stage of the re-opening is staggered in three week intervals (2,5,8,11,14,17 weeks from today). Which is the needed time lag for any surge in new cases, and in particular a surge of hospitalisations, from the previous bit of relaxation to make itself apparent. And if that surge occurs the next step then gets put on hold (in theory). It looks like a sensibly cautious plan drawn up by epidemiologists, which has been given to someone who doesn't want to give the time to understand the nuances so he has asked for it to be simplified to a few memorable key points and specific target dates.