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    Germany, Indonesia and the Philippines have all now recorded 350,000+ cases.

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      Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
      The fucking schools man, same in Ireland. The country will be burning but teachers are the new Frontline Heroes, falling without complaint so folk have free childcare and a break from the wee rats.
      While I don't disagree with the thrust of your point, it's a bit more fucking complicated than wanting a bit of time off from the kids.

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        Guatemala has exceeded 100,000 cases and reported 3,478 deaths.

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          I know Hobbes, and I'm oversimplifying wildly after 3 beers, but I'm sick of this Govt and most of the media in Ireland carrying on like kids can't get it/have serious symptoms/spread it. The main exemption here to the ban on household visits is to allow you to dump the kids with the grandparents. It's fucking madness.
          Last edited by Lang Spoon; 16-10-2020, 22:52.

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            So the world breaches the 400,000 cases in a day mark for the first time, with the USA contributing over 70,000 of them for the first time in a couple of months.

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              HIGNFY is barely relevant now but I lked this.

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                I'll say a prayer to Eric for you, EIM.

                Originally posted by steviecowden View Post

                dunno about it being fuzzy-it was a fully garrisoned stone wall running the breadth of the country and along the coastline on the southern side with a purely military zone just to the south of the wall,doesnt really get much more regulated and controlled than that
                Well it was there to enable the manning of the border, like the border posts around the rest of the empire, but like those it wasn't stopping all back-and-forth, and groups the Romans were friendly with would have been able to cross as they pleased, just as they did everywhere else. Hadrian was the emperor after Trajan (under whom the empire reached its greatest extent, and after whom it started to decline), so in hindsight the fact the wall had to be put up at all betrays the fact that the tide was starting to turn in that respect. I'll concede that it might be more 1990s TV programme uploaded to YouTube than outright fuzzy, though. (I do realise that this ignores the Antonine Wall, but given that only lasted eight years I think that's something we can safely do, as it definitely didn't keep anyone out.)

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                  I much prefer "firebreak" to "circuit-breaker", as it goes.

                  Hope you're ok, Eric's.

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                    The USA has had the most new cases for the last two days, comfortably outstripping India once more, where cases have been dropping.

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                      Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
                      So the world breaches the 400,000 cases in a day mark for the first time, with the USA contributing over 70,000 of them for the first time in a couple of months.
                      The world went way beyond the 400,000 mark, up to 413,121 cases in a day.

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                        Hope you're OK EIM.

                        My Covid-19 app has no increased the risk level from medium to high.

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                          Belgium is the 27th country to reach 200,000+ cases and has recorded 10,359 deaths. It still has one of the highest death rates (893 deaths per million population) which is believed to be due to counting suspected deaths as well as confirmed Covid-19 deaths, but it has been overtaken by Peru in this arena, and several other South American countries are not that far behind (in the 700-800 deaths per million range).

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                            Venezuela has now recorded more cases than China, but only 725 deaths so far (compared to China's 4,634). Those don't seem like terribly accurate figures, but I have no concrete reason to doubt them.

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                              There are 45 countries that have between 1,000 and 10,000 cases so far. 28 of those countries are African. It's possible that these countries have been slow burning, maybe due to lower population density, and still have the potential to have bigger outbreaks in future.

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                                Been doing some back of the fag packet calculations. Current estimate is that Covid-19 is killing about 0.5% of people who are infected. In the last week, 113,579 people have been confirmed to be infected with Covid-19 in the UK. It's usually about two to three weeks after onset of infection to death. So, we would be expecting to see about 568 deaths per week in 2-3 weeks time. But, we're already seeing 750 deaths per week. That suggests a few possibilities.

                                1) Occam's razor, the UK's test and trace system is only picking up about half of new cases. That would mean we're currently seeing more like 230,000 new cases a week and will be expecting about 1,150 deaths per week in 2-3 weeks time.

                                2) The virus could be more deadly than expected. If the UK's numbers are accurate, then the virus would currently be killing about 1% of those who are infected.

                                I think option 1 is the most likely. Brace for about 200 deaths per weekday in the near future.

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                                  Is there a breakdown of who is dying this time? It was disproportionately the elderly during the first wave but I haven't seen stories of care home outbreaks this time.

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                                    Apologies if, etc...but this is amazing.

                                    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-...fographic.html

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                                      Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
                                      Is there a breakdown of who is dying this time? It was disproportionately the elderly during the first wave but I haven't seen stories of care home outbreaks this time.
                                      There have been care home outbreaks in Ireland, major ones in Laois and Donegal. My boss's brother in law lost his Dad on Monday to it, assuming in a Dublin care home.
                                      Last edited by Lang Spoon; 17-10-2020, 13:16.

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                                        Globally in the last week, we've seen 2,439,262 new cases. If the 0.5% death rate is accurate, that should lead to 12,196 deaths per week in 2-3 weeks time. But in the last week, we've seen 36,338 deaths worldwide. So it's a similar picture to the UK. Either lots of asymptomatic or mild cases are not being recorded (most likely) or the virus is more deadly than thought (less likely).

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                                          Get well soon EIM.

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                                            Any more news, EIM? Have you been tested?

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                                              Another 16,170 new cases in the UK today, which means the UK has overtaken South Africa in terms of total number of cases, and is the 12th country to exceed 700,000 cases.

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                                                Also 150 new deaths today, which is the highest daily tally since early June.

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                                                  That makes 819 deaths in the UK in the last week.

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                                                    Some epidemiologist from Trinity college Dublin thinks that the Pfizer vaccine will be ready before Christmas. I'll believe it when I see it, considering everyone in Ireland who owns a stethoscope has given us their opinion at this stage.

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