Covid-19 pandemic

[Balderdasha]

True, with a caveat. During the first spike the UK was barely testing anyone. So the official daily case tally was a vast underestimate (it almost certainly still is under, but nothing like as significantly). The estimated highest maximum daily case tally of the first spike is ~100,000.

This is true, but with the number of people reporting difficulties getting hold of tests currently, I suspect the real daily case tally is still much, much higher than the official figures. The difference is that in the first wave, people could only get hold of a Covid-19 test if they were hospitalised. At least some people who have symptoms, but are not ill enough to go to hospital, are getting tests now.

[Nefertiti2]

Stephen Reicher a behavioural psychologist who resigned from SAGE

https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1309074530581860355?s=20

[Nefertiti2]

this is phenomenal

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1309109583747723266?s=20

[S. aureus]

San Mateo County continues with the next step in the dance of death as it's moved up into the "red" tier, "This means restaurants, shopping centers, museums, places of worship, movie theaters and gyms can open indoors with limited capacity".
"Hallelujah, we are out of the purple and into the red," San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa said in a statement. "Now we can eat indoors again, go see a movie and get some exercise at the gym."
So we'll be back in the "purple" (or completely fucked) tier again in a month.
Not coincidentally I got texts yesterday from both my and my kids' dentists reminding me hat we were overdue for our teeth cleanings.
If anyone's interested, we've had 400 new cases in the past week, or 52/100,000 population.

[San Bernardhinault]

We keep having similar things. Local jurisdictions get excited when they move into the lower tier - San Diego threatened to sue the state of California if it was moved back into the purple tier. They seem to think that the tier rating from the state government is what determines if people should be allowed to infect one another. We're at the point where local officials appear to only care about local businesses and not about public health.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts changed its regulations and the governor was super happy about telling people they can all sit at bars again. And we can now have 10, rather than 6, people at a table indoors eating.

We still have 350-400 new diagnosed cases a day. Why on earth do they think this is a good idea?

[ursus arctos]

There is no organised lobby for public health

[S. aureus]

I'm also a bit concerned about the timing of this with respect to my kids schools - the rules as I saw them earlier say that in class learning can begin after a county's been in the "red" for 2 weeks. The current all distance model is slated to be revisited before the end of their fall break on October 19th, which is just over 3 weeks away. So far the school district has handled things very well (in my opinion), so I'm hopeful that they don't decide to start in class learning on October 19th, as that will likely be a disaster.

[Jimski]

This is somewhat worrying...

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1309145690992455682

[Jimski]

Meanwhile in Italy...

https://twitter.com/missanabeem/status/1309091592633016320

[ChrisJ]

Not sure where to put this, but here, probably.

Just had an email from work.

"I am sure you are all aware that the NHS Track and Trace App launched today. All staff members should read the attached information and download the App on to your phone."

Two thoughts occur. 1. Last time there was talk of such an app (May? I think it was the one that never really happened), I had a number of rows on FB with people because I said I wasn't downloading it as I didn't trust Harding, Johnson or any of them with my data. 2. I'm not sure whether my employer can insist I put anything on my personal phone. (OK; I'm pretty sure they can't unless agreed to it when I applied and was appointed.)

I've sort of lost touch with this issue as I've given up on any UK government action being useful, effective, timely or more than vaguely relevant. I think there's more chance of it being sorted out by friendly aliens than Johnson, but I don't want my cynicism to blind me to anything useful I can do. So, questions for the greater minds of OTF. Can we trust this app? If so, then it seems like a Good Thing to be able to trace contacts of people with positive tests - I'm ignoring the testing issues which will mean it doesn't have the data to operate effectively anyway. But have I missed something? And has anyone been told by their employer to use it?

[ChrisJ]

Just to add to the above, I don't want to come across as a tech version of an anti-vaxxer. I've had a test when I suspected I had Covid and isolated until it came through, meanwhile making a list of contacts, just in case. I'm mainly wondering about the integrity of the IT, I suppose. Probably a symptom of the lack of trust I have in pretty much anything done by the current government.

Edit - And to add further, as I was typing this post, I had a further message telling me that from tomorrow, when I sign in to work, I have to scan the QR code with the T&T app.

[Nefertiti2]

`People like Paul Bernal who is an academic lawyer specialising in internet privacy issues say the privacy issues are pretty much resolved

he has other doubts about the efficacy of the technology

https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1309139946175975426?s=20


This guy says someithng similar

https://twitter.com/mikarv/status/1309022998574305281?s=20

[Jimski]

Yeah, I've donwloaded it. It's using the decentralised approach now, which is what everyone advised should be used in the first place.

[ChrisJ]

Thanks both - although I did note the Veale still had qualms about the QR aspect.

Fuck it, Apple knows everything about me, Google knows everything about me; the bloke who rang today trying to scam me on loft insulation seemingly has all my details, I'm not sure who I'm kidding...

[Nefertiti2]

More from Michael Veale

https://twitter.com/mikarv/status/1309023001220915200?s=20

[Balderdasha]

Iran is the tenth country to report more than 25,000 deaths.

[Balderdasha]

Indonesia is the 17th country to report more than 10,000 deaths.

[Balderdasha]

There are now six African countries that have reported more than 50,000 cases and more than 1,000 deaths: South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Algeria. The continent as a whole has still reported fewer than 1.5 million cases and fewer than 35,000 deaths. I.e. the continent of Africa has reported fewer deaths overall than Italy.

[Diable Rouge]

Donegal set to move to Level 3, meanwhile 324 cases and 3 deaths. County breakdown here:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1309172499620429824

[Balderdasha]

6,634 new cases and 40 deaths in the UK today.

[Tactical Genius]

There are now six African countries that have reported more than 50,000 cases and more than 1,000 deaths: South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Algeria. The continent as a whole has still reported fewer than 1.5 million cases and fewer than 35,000 deaths. I.e. the continent of Africa has reported fewer deaths overall than Italy.

And a fair few people are upset about that.

[Balderdasha]

34,749 new cases in the UK in the last week. More cases than Ireland has recorded during the entire pandemic.

[Balderdasha]

197 deaths in the UK from Covid-19 in the last week.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Denmark, Slovakia, Iceland, and Curacao join the Q-list.

[Jimski]

Any idea why the app is limited to over 16s? We were quite keen on the children having it on their phones too.