Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Covid-19 pandemic

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    31,510 new cases in the UK in the last week, more than all cases in Oceania to date.

    Comment


      Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post

      I was wondering about that as well.

      Does the greater degree of regional autonomy in Spain play a role? The current wave seems to be centered in Madrid. Was that the case at the outset?
      The hospitality sector was probably too quick to reopen and there are added factors of young people wanting to enjoy the summer. Plus there are still a fair few tourists around.Also, many people live in close proximity to one another.

      Madrid seems to have suffered more than most since the beginning.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post


        TBH, I don't really see a huge difference between Italy and the UK as described above, other than perhaps in terms of public attitude. I see or hear about little things which just suggest to me that a lot of people over here could be taking more precautions, or changing their behaviour, than they are so far doing.
        "Effective testing and monitoring"

        I mean I don't know anything about the Italian test and trace, but we definitely don't have an effective system here.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
          That's a higher official daily tally of cases in the UK than every single previous day apart from April 10th.
          Testing levels back then make current figures not particularly comparable to April, but the shape of the current curve now... Blimey....

          Comment


            On the Italy/UK issue. I was under the impression that Italy didn't take it very seriously in the earliest stages, but then, clearly, got its shit together. I confess that when things first started to go sideways in Italy, I didn't think it was really a sign of things to come because I always get the impression that Italy is always a bit chaotic. That was really wrong.



            Is it possible that Italians figured it out (see clip) not only because they saw the nightmare in the hospitals right in front of them, but because Italians are just a bit more able to accept horror in general?

            That's a really vague and possibly unfalsifiable thesis, but there might be something in it. I know that a big problem in the US isn't just all the disinformation and kleptocracy, but Americans, at least since WW2 just don't seem to think things can really ever get that bad. I know my parents are like that. I think most middle-class white people are like that. There's a powerful "it won't happen to us" feeling that permeates every damn aspect of US life (Canada too, really). I have found that I've been infected by it too, even though I'm actually very anxious and pessimistic in general and am prone to try to disaster-proof my brain in a way that is not at all helpful.

            And I kinda sense there's a lot of that in the UK too. At least to a degree that there isn't in Italy, Germany, Japan or China. Of course, the UK lived through a massive disaster in not too distant memory, but it's collective understanding of how it got through that disaster seems to have been so skewed that lot so people seem to think the key is to just ignore the threat.

            I recently read a good piece - I'll see if I can find it - by a white guy who I can't recall, who talked about how almost all the popular "dystopian" stories in film, books and comics, don't have much to say about race and thus, what they're showing is a vision of "what if shit got really bad for white people too!" Of course, a large portion of people who are not white or not nominally Christian have been on the wrong end of all the forces of evil that are just now more obvious - or are more obvious to those paying attention - than they were before. I even get a sense of optimism or perhaps relief from some Black commentators. They seem to be saying "shit's not really that much worse now than it was four years ago and, at least now, a lot more white people are noticing, so that's progress." That may be overstating it slightly, but you get the point.

            Indeed, I've heard a few different Christian commentators/pastors point out that Apocalypse does not mean "the end" (that would be something more like "telos," I guess). It means "uncover." So we really are living in an apocalypse in the sense that we're just seeing what was always there. And there were multiple apocalypses during the 20th century too. That's both terrifying and also offers some hope that the big changes these events cause will create at least a slightly better world.
             
            Last edited by Hot Pepsi; 23-09-2020, 16:00.

            Comment


              Very few people (the South Koreans and New Zealanders being notable exceptions) took it seriously in the very early stages.

              The horrors of what happened in Lombardy in general and Bergamo in particular definitely got people's attention and really changed behaviour.

              The US point is fascinating, and not one that I've considered before. There is a definite case to be made that New Yorkers are more familiar with catastrophe and more pessimistic in general than many other people in this country.

              Comment


                Uruguay has done relatively well. Maybe because it's a forward looking and sensible nation.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Jimski View Post

                  "Effective testing and monitoring"

                  I mean I don't know anything about the Italian test and trace, but we definitely don't have an effective system here.

                  Well, I suppose it depends on how you define "effective". I mean, the UK's testing rates are pretty good in terms of global comparisons, (UK 332,758 tests per 1m population against 176,695 in Italy, for instance, and currently in 19th place on the worldwide list and only behind a lot of mainly small, wealthy countries), even though we know that the process of getting a test isn't always easy, particularly at the moment. And as described above, the tracing process worked pretty well when my son contracted the virus.

                  Is Italy's system any better? Possibly and perhaps that's making the difference. But from what I can understand the main driver of the resurgence of the virus, in the UK at least, is socialising in mainly private, enclosed spaces with insufficient or non-existent mitigating behaviour. The Government's ability the affect that is limited; there needs to be a lot more personal responsibility taken.

                  Comment


                    I still wonder about the UK testing figures.

                    They were caught double and triple counting before, and while they have said that has stopped, I do wonder if a significant number of the current tests are of the same population. There also seem to be more stories of tests being ineffective in the UK, in part because of the reliance on "self administering".

                    I also think that you underestimate the government's ability to influence private behaviour. If they had been more serious about the threat, more consistent in their advice and less cavalier in their personal actions, it would have made a difference.
                    Last edited by ursus arctos; 23-09-2020, 16:33.

                    Comment


                      I was about to write the same thing as Ursus's second paragraph. If you've spent the summer telling people to go out and get drunk, go out for meals, go out to Pret, go out to work, get back to normal, then pretending to be shocked when they think everything's basically OK and they went back to normal and got drunk created an infection spike is pretty disingenuous.

                      Comment


                        Bloody hell. [Edit - sorry, that was to Balders' UK numbers news at the foot of the previous page, for some reason that was the page that loaded when I clicked on the thread, so I thought it was the latest post.]

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                          I still wonder about the UK testing figures.

                          They were couple double and triple counting before, and while they have said that has stopped, I do wonder if a significant number of the current tests are of the same population. There also seem to be more stories of tests being ineffective in the UK, in part because of the reliance on "self administering".

                          I also think that you underestimate the government's ability to influence private behaviour. If they had been more serious about the threat, more consistent in their advice and less cavalier in their personal actions, it would have made a difference.

                          Well, it's certainly includes people having multiple tests, but I assume that's the case elsewhere, and I have no reason to believe that any other country's statistics are any more reliable.

                          I was pointing out that it's hard for the authorities to stop people meeting together in private residences and flouting the restrictions should they choose to do so. The public message has been a strong one but that hasn't been sufficient to deter a lot of people, which is why fines are being ramped up. I think you overestimate how much Dominic Cummings's jaunts or short-notice strategy changes influence teenagers' party plans.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post


                            Well, I suppose it depends on how you define "effective". I mean, the UK's testing rates are pretty good in terms of global comparisons, (UK 332,758 tests per 1m population against 176,695 in Italy, for instance, and currently in 19th place on the worldwide list and only behind a lot of mainly small, wealthy countries), even though we know that the process of getting a test isn't always easy, particularly at the moment. And as described above, the tracing process worked pretty well when my son contracted the virus.

                            Is Italy's system any better? Possibly and perhaps that's making the difference. But from what I can understand the main driver of the resurgence of the virus, in the UK at least, is socialising in mainly private, enclosed spaces with insufficient or non-existent mitigating behaviour. The Government's ability the affect that is limited; there needs to be a lot more personal responsibility taken.
                            I judge test and trace by its results. An effective system is one where you obsess over each and every case and hunt down contacts as though lives depend on it (which they do). See NZ, South Korea, etc. And if cases mount too high for you to be sure that you're able to do that, you lock down until you're back on top of *every* case. Literally every one.

                            It is the way to control the virus. Lockdown is the button to press to get things to a manageable level. Test and trace is how you actually do the managing.

                            (And,as an aside, two colleagues tried to get tests for their respective children over the past week. Both struggled even to get a test for at least a day. Each then managed it - one of them 40 miles away. One got the results in around 60 hours , the other in 87 hours. Imagine what that would have meant for their contacts had either been positive. Thankfully neither was.)

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                              I was about to write the same thing as Ursus's second paragraph. If you've spent the summer telling people to go out and get drunk, go out for meals, go out to Pret, go out to work, get back to normal, then pretending to be shocked when they think everything's basically OK and they went back to normal and got drunk created an infection spike is pretty disingenuous.

                              The public weren't told to go out and get drunk. Pubs were allowed to open with a raft of safety measures which the public were advised to rigorously observe, whether it be pre-ordering food, not approaching the bar, following one-way systems, one at a time in the jacks and so on. People were encouraged to eat out to help prevent the collapse of thousands or business and a wave of job losses. The restaurants, like the pubs, made every effort to ensure that they were safe, clean, well-ventilated places to eat. If there are statistics out there to suggest that the Government scheme has played a major part in the virus rate increase I'd be interested to see them.

                              Rather than suggest that everything is normal the message has been very much that everything isn't normal but that if everyone social distances, wears masks, observe hygiene protocols and follows the guidelines it might, just might, be possible to live and work in a way that roughly approximates to the way things were before we'd all heard of COVID-19.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                Very few people (the South Koreans and New Zealanders being notable exceptions) took it seriously in the very early stages.

                                The horrors of what happened in Lombardy in general and Bergamo in particular definitely got people's attention and really changed behaviour.

                                The US point is fascinating, and not one that I've considered before. There is a definite case to be made that New Yorkers are more familiar with catastrophe and more pessimistic in general than many other people in this country.
                                New Orleans and Florida are familiar with catastrophe and yet they haven't handled this very well. That's not surprising given that their repeated reliance on government to help them recover from natural disasters has not made them vote for a more responsible, effective government.

                                I suspect that is because the people who suffered the most in the those catastrophes were poor and/or people of color, especially women and children and the astounding number of white and/or middle-class people in those states just don't really care about the fate of those people.

                                White supremacists would have us believe that the calamities that afflict such people are their fault. Some of them actually believe that, while some know they are caused by White Supremacy and are just fine with that.

                                But even liberals are prone to think of catastrophes as something that happen to other people. They may feel bad for those people and may even want to help those people with bigger government interventions, but they're still usually "other."

                                I'm guilty of that too because I'm lucky enough to have never lived in a place where major catastrophes, natural or otherwise, were a major risk.

                                Comment


                                  I think Donegal will be moving to level 3 presently:

                                  https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1308810853618245632

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post


                                    The public weren't told to go out and get drunk. Pubs were allowed to open with a raft of safety measures which the public were advised to rigorously observe, whether it be pre-ordering food, not approaching the bar, following one-way systems, one at a time in the jacks and so on. People were encouraged to eat out to help prevent the collapse of thousands or business and a wave of job losses. The restaurants, like the pubs, made every effort to ensure that they were safe, clean, well-ventilated places to eat. If there are statistics out there to suggest that the Government scheme has played a major part in the virus rate increase I'd be interested to see them.

                                    Rather than suggest that everything is normal the message has been very much that everything isn't normal but that if everyone social distances, wears masks, observe hygiene protocols and follows the guidelines it might, just might, be possible to live and work in a way that roughly approximates to the way things were before we'd all heard of COVID-19.
                                    How well have all those measures actually been observed?

                                    And how well have those measures been observed outside of public places like pubs?


                                    I'd have thought that the UK might have an advantage over countries that don't have so much of a pub culture. Pubs can be regulated. They already are. But how people - especially young people like university students - socialize in and around their own homes is much harder to regulate and monitor.

                                    So perhaps all of those measures implemented on pubs and restaurants don't really work that well, or they aren't being thoroughly applied, or people are not taking appropriate precautions outside of those places. I don't know to what degree that's the fault of the government or just "the culture" or both. Over here, it's definitely both.

                                    Comment


                                      Indoor dining in public is considered one of the riskier activities by many scientists - combination of indoors, proximity, loud speaking, etc. There's a CDC study that links dining out (in the US) to Covid cases. Nothing for the UK that I've seen, but given the inherent risks it was a bloody stupid strategy to encourage people to do it. "Take Out to Help Out" would have been a far better idea. As would paying restaurants to stay shut.

                                      Comment


                                        I've got to say that NS is doing a much better job of defending the UK Government's response here than either the PM or Health Minister.

                                        Comment


                                          The Netherlands has just exceeded 100,000 cases, and has reported 6,296 deaths.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post
                                            On the Italy/UK issue. I was under the impression that Italy didn't take it very seriously in the earliest stages, but then, clearly, got its shit together. I confess that when things first started to go sideways in Italy, I didn't think it was really a sign of things to come because I always get the impression that Italy is always a bit chaotic. That was really wrong.
                                            They didn't hide the dead in Italy. And while italy is big into tourism, I don't know if it is as big into it as spain is.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                              I've got to say that NS is doing a much better job of defending the UK Government's response here than either the PM or Health Minister.
                                              I don't know how the whole country feels, but I know that my UK-based colleagues do not feel the advice they've been given has been consistent or clear enough.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Jimski View Post

                                                I judge test and trace by its results. An effective system is one where you obsess over each and every case and hunt down contacts as though lives depend on it (which they do). See NZ, South Korea, etc. And if cases mount too high for you to be sure that you're able to do that, you lock down until you're back on top of *every* case. Literally every one.

                                                It is the way to control the virus. Lockdown is the button to press to get things to a manageable level. Test and trace is how you actually do the managing.

                                                (And,as an aside, two colleagues tried to get tests for their respective children over the past week. Both struggled even to get a test for at least a day. Each then managed it - one of them 40 miles away. One got the results in around 60 hours , the other in 87 hours. Imagine what that would have meant for their contacts had either been positive. Thankfully neither was.)
                                                Contact tracing in Ireland only goes back 48 hours. Which is partly why there's a severe lack of evidence here pointing to pubs masquerading as restaurants as being a cause of outbreaks.

                                                The useless fucks in the HSE could have used June and July to set up a better contact tracing regime that goes back 2 weeks, and hiring more lab testers, but Paul Reid was more concerned with closing "uneconomical" testing centres and sending seconded contact tracers back to the fuckin Defence Forces or Revenue.

                                                Comment


                                                  Israel isn't very big...

                                                  if you leave home to go to University you may not be back for Christmas

                                                  https://twitter.com/ucu/status/1308842513596379136?s=20

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post

                                                    How well have all those measures actually been observed?

                                                    And how well have those measures been observed outside of public places like pubs?


                                                    I'd have thought that the UK might have an advantage over countries that don't have so much of a pub culture. Pubs can be regulated. They already are. But how people - especially young people like university students - socialize in and around their own homes is much harder to regulate and monitor.

                                                    So perhaps all of those measures implemented on pubs and restaurants don't really work that well, or they aren't being thoroughly applied, or people are not taking appropriate precautions outside of those places. I don't know to what degree that's the fault of the government or just "the culture" or both. Over here, it's definitely both.

                                                    It's hard to say. Very well in my limited experience but I've got no idea if the restrictions and guidelines are being widely flouted. I've heard of the odd case where there has been a localised outbreak of the virus which has been linked to a pub or restaurant with poor controls, but I'm not sure how big an issue it is. The main problem, I suspect, is distancing and contact amongst the clientele after a few drinks. But a bit of yelling and joshing in the beer garden at the end of the evening is probably a lot safer in terms of virus risk than 25 people in a house for six hours.

                                                    Outside. Again, fine in my experience and if there have been problems it's not been dominating the news reports. As I think I've said before, I'd love to see some granular detail in the positive test reports as to suspected location (by type/function) of infection, even if it could be three or four different places. If the details are being compiled I haven't seen them. We get the occasional hint, though, which suggests that a large proportion of the transmission is via friends or family at home.

                                                    Comment

                                                    Working...
                                                    X