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    Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
    Got swabbed for Covid on the 13th, took until today (31st) for the letter to arrive telling me I tested negative!
    My friend found out in 36 hours last week.

    Comment


      More evidence that children transmit the virus:

      https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm

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        And a twitter thread on children and the virus:

        https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1289192833790877698

        The TL;DR at the bottom is as follows:

        * Kids do get sick
        * Kids do transmit the virus
        * School is still possible ... but only with strict precautions & if community infection rates are low
        * NO MATTER WHAT, #MaskUp and insist on testing

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          Yikes

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            And a scary article about the lingering effects of Covid-19.

            Data from the COVID Symptom Study, which uses an app into which millions of people in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden have tapped their symptoms, suggest 10% to 15% of people—including some “mild” cases—don’t quickly recover. But with the crisis just months old, no one knows how far into the future symptoms will endure, and whether COVID-19 will prompt the onset of chronic diseases.
            https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...arm-scientists

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              Originally posted by Jimski View Post
              More evidence that children transmit the virus:

              https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm
              I'm not getting that conclusion from that link.

              There were 597 people at Camp A, of which 258 were staff members and trainees. The article states how those 258 have median age 17, with range 14-59. The article concludes:
              This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (13) and, contrary to early reports (5,6), might play an important role in transmission (7,8).
              There is a might in that last bit, and I don't think that that is an accident. All observations can also be explained by transmission only originating from the adults that were present.

              Similarly, the TL;DR from the Twitter thread seems to base the conclusion that "Kids do transmit the virus" on only the South Korean study (Dr. Ranney does not draw this conclusion explicitly from the other two studies), and when I open the South Korean study I find:
              Children who attend day care or school also are at high risk for transmitting respiratory viruses to household members (10).
              But reference 10 is a paper from 2006, so this cannot concern Covid-19. Mitigating remarks from the South Korean study include:
              Despite closure of their schools, these children might have interacted with each other, although we do not have data to support that hypothesis. [...] Further evidence, including serologic studies, is needed to evaluate the public health benefit of school closure as part of mitigation strategies.
              Sorry for keeping banging on the same drum, but all the claims I've seen so far that children transmit the virus did not hold up to closer scrutiny. I'm afraid that too many people, particularly on social media, tend to overclaim. I don't know whether or not children transmit the virus, but I haven't seen compelling evidence that anybody else does.

              The lingering effects paper is stark, and it's something that shouldn't be forgotten when countries are mostly concerned with their death rates. Death is not the only nasty outcome.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Jimski View Post
                More evidence that children transmit the virus:

                https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm
                Thanks for sharing these Jimski.

                In the week that the UK government says masks to be worn in many indoor places, except schools, that's worrying.

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                  4 deaths recorded in Wales today. Fewer cases though.

                  And 25,000 people on Barry Island according to Twitter.

                  Comment


                    Yeah, fair enough, Wouter., it's just that there now seem to be a whole load of studies suggesting that children 'might' transmit the virus, and while I realise it's not conclusive, it does seem that evidence is starting to mount. At one point it seemed to be stated almost definitely that they don't. If you look at the Wellcome Trust Covid twitter list, there are now quite a few scientists discussing these results as though they are showing up something noteworthy, even if not yet conclusive. It's also becoming clear that children do *get* the virus, which also seemed to be in doubt at one point.

                    Also note I said "evidence", not "proof", (e.g. if my mobile phone is shown to have transmitted from a certain area, that is evidence I was there, but it's not proof, obviously, as there are other explanations. ). I'm certainly not claiming that we *know* anything just yet. But, for me, this is enough uncertainty now not to take any chances.
                    Last edited by Jimski; 31-07-2020, 22:13.

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                      I'd be really interested in what the definition of a child is in all of these studies. Anyone under 18? Under 16? Pre-puberty?

                      I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems that the UK government is clearly banking on schools being open. We've got a sixth form meaning there are many adults, over 18s, studying with us and classed as children.

                      Wales have announced that under 11s will not be required to socially distance.

                      It's clear that children and babies catch and die from Covid-19 but just not in the same numbers as other groups, my genuine concern is that schools are not only full of kids but also full of adults, not just teachers but support staff, admin staff, cleaners, caretakers, catering staff etc. I'm not sure what the ratio is but I'd guess it was 5/6:1 judging on the schools I've worked in. There's also a reliance on public transport to get there.

                      I'm concerned for the health and well being of many here, I know how some of our families live. Extremely cramped conditions with children not having beds and sleeping on mats on the floor, often with three generations in the same house and sometimes shared with other families.

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                        This policy of fine tuning the lockdown to keep R just below 1 while cases are still high is nuts. Ignoring for now the fact that it makes already muddled messaging incoherent, it's a horrible way of managing an epidemic. We need to bring the number of active cases down sharply first so that we can do proper test and trace on isolated outbreaks, and so that the risk of doing the various things that are allowed post-lockdown is a lot lower.

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                          Iran has now reported more cases than the UK, pushing the UK out of the top ten in terms of total case numbers. The UK is still third globally in terms of total deaths and in terms of deaths per million population.

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                            So, this week we went on holiday. Left on Tuesday and were supposed to be away, doing various things in Romania (didn;t feel comfortable leaving the country), until next weekend. We had a good couple of days, but then on Thursday evening we got a phone call. On Sunday last week, my other half had take up the offer of a lift with a friend to her home town as she had to do a few tasks related to the apartment where her parents lived, and which we still own. He was going there with his 9 year old son, and she tagged along, spend the day doing things and then a got a lift home in the evening. She was in the car with him, for getting on for 6 hours. On Tuesday evening he started developing symptoms and then on Wednesday was tested and Thursday admitted to hospital with a confirmed case. So, we're now home, having driven here all day yesterday, so we could be at home and self isolate. Given the exposure that Erika had, it seems hard to imagine that she won't have caught it, and as a result me and our two daughters are almost certainly going to have caught it too. It seems from what we know that symptoms start to appear between 3-8 days after exposure, so we're assuming that if she doesn't show symptoms by Monday she probably won't (either because she hasn;t caught it or because she's asymptomatic). Then me and the girls will probably wait until around Thursday to start relaxing a bit.

                            It;s a very weird feeling this sense of assuming that I have a virus which could be utterly debilitating or worse and waiting to start feeling it take effect.

                            (The friend is still in hospital, not in ICU, not with any breathing difficulties but feeling incredibly weak).

                            Comment


                              The best laid plans...

                              The cub is doing a few weeks at a summer thing at his school, hosted by the company that do their PE. After 5 months of just me, he really needed to get out.
                              Their planning was great, bubbles of 8 kids and one adult that never mix throughout. Of course that only works if you stick to it.
                              Tuesday morning P dropped him off and in front of her was a parent screaming and shouting because her son was in a bubble with his sister not his friends. Given it was early doors, they offered to move both of her kids to the other bubble (despite that messing up their numbers.) 2 more minutes of shouting and abuse until the poor young girl on the desk caved. So the daughter stays in one bubble and the son moves to a separate one. Completely defeating the fucking object.
                              so that parent has now for selfish reasons doubled the number of people at risk of infection, lockdown etc.
                              P is not confrontational. Had I been there I’d have explained statistics to the stupid fucking plank, poste haste.

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                                Shit! Good luck to you and yours ad hoc.

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                                  And that post is already out of date as Mexico has just published its daily numbers and has overtaken the UK in terms of total deaths. Cue lots of UK media coverage about Mexico being third worst in the world.

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                                    Best of luck, a.h. Horrendous situation.

                                    My wife and I have a lot of allergy symptoms when we travel (I am allergic to pine needles so get worse in forest areas) so we have ben anxiously checking these symptoms against COVID. So far we are OK and we've been encouraged that mask compliance in SWFL is higher now than when we set off in early July. Eating outdoors is impossible in this climate until November except for 7am breakfast. Indoors would be madness unless the place is nearly empty, and even then it's a gamble with the AC and effectivess of the servers' masks.

                                    My wife has a friend whose dad and uncle both died in Mexico City last month. She could not attend the funerals. Awful.

                                    Our regular electrician and dry cleaner are both isolating with symptoms. Self-employed customer facing people are in peril constantly and must be a significant vector in Florida.
                                    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 01-08-2020, 10:51.

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                                      Good luck ad hoc. I'm very much hoping that you and your family will be one of the many people who either haven't caught Covid-19 despite exposure to it, or, if you have caught it, that you get the most mild or asymptomatic version.

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                                        Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                        This policy of fine tuning the lockdown to keep R just below 1 while cases are still high is nuts. Ignoring for now the fact that it makes already muddled messaging incoherent, it's a horrible way of managing an epidemic. We need to bring the number of active cases down sharply first so that we can do proper test and trace on isolated outbreaks, and so that the risk of doing the various things that are allowed post-lockdown is a lot lower.
                                        This.

                                        Comment


                                          The government knows this but lacks the political will to change course.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                            This policy of fine tuning the lockdown to keep R just below 1 while cases are still high is nuts. Ignoring for now the fact that it makes already muddled messaging incoherent, it's a horrible way of managing an epidemic. We need to bring the number of active cases down sharply first so that we can do proper test and trace on isolated outbreaks, and so that the risk of doing the various things that are allowed post-lockdown is a lot lower.
                                            This, completely. I think the public's confidence in the government's handling is about to hit a new low, because their short termism is coming home to roost in a big way.

                                            It could be kite-flying but there was a quote on the radio news just now from one of the SAGE advisors that pubs may need to close in England next month in order to allow schools to open. The same pubs that the government is desperately encouraging people to go to (and even subsidising them to do so, from Monday) and the same pubs who have only just fully re-stocked again, having already written off large stocks of food and drink from the original closure.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                              So, this week we went on holiday. Left on Tuesday and were supposed to be away, doing various things in Romania (didn;t feel comfortable leaving the country), until next weekend. We had a good couple of days, but then on Thursday evening we got a phone call. On Sunday last week, my other half had take up the offer of a lift with a friend to her home town as she had to do a few tasks related to the apartment where her parents lived, and which we still own. He was going there with his 9 year old son, and she tagged along, spend the day doing things and then a got a lift home in the evening. She was in the car with him, for getting on for 6 hours. On Tuesday evening he started developing symptoms and then on Wednesday was tested and Thursday admitted to hospital with a confirmed case. So, we're now home, having driven here all day yesterday, so we could be at home and self isolate. Given the exposure that Erika had, it seems hard to imagine that she won't have caught it, and as a result me and our two daughters are almost certainly going to have caught it too. It seems from what we know that symptoms start to appear between 3-8 days after exposure, so we're assuming that if she doesn't show symptoms by Monday she probably won't (either because she hasn;t caught it or because she's asymptomatic). Then me and the girls will probably wait until around Thursday to start relaxing a bit.

                                              It;s a very weird feeling this sense of assuming that I have a virus which could be utterly debilitating or worse and waiting to start feeling it take effect.

                                              (The friend is still in hospital, not in ICU, not with any breathing difficulties but feeling incredibly weak).
                                              Yikes - hope you're all ok and continue to be so, ad hoc. From what I've read about the spread of the virus, it can be extremely unpredictable in its spread, with some people seemingly far more likely to spread it than others. So I certainly wouldn't presume infection to be inevitable.

                                              Also, are you not able to get tested, so you don't have to just sit there and wait to see what happens?
                                              Last edited by Jimski; 01-08-2020, 10:57.

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                                                Hope it works out well for all of you, ad hoc.

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                                                  Crikey ad hoc, that's horrendous. I really hope things are OK.

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                                                    Best of luck AdHoc don't lose hope, my wife had close colleagues she shared an office with that went down with Covid and she never caught it (AB test confirmed it).

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