Covid-19 pandemic

[Balderdasha]

The current UK toll of 45,300 is higher than the populations of either Monaco or Sint Maarten.

[Balderdasha]

The global death toll is now higher than the population of Liverpool, UK.

[elguapo4]

Well Ireland aren't adding to it today, 0 deaths and 10 cases,hopefully the last few days were an aberration.

[Diable Rouge]

And thankfully Kerry appears to have settled down after the mini-cluster earlier in the week,with no additional cases since Wednesday.

[elguapo4]

The Yanks are heading up to see the Cliffs of Moher and infecting County Clare. If the Aran Islanders have any sense, they'll mine the harbour to keep them out.

[Gangster Octopus]

The Cliffs Of Moher made me want to throw up...

[ursus arctos]

This piece from the Washington Post (which should not be paywalled) provides a useful summary of current theories of transmission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rive-pandemic/

Transmission, it turns out, is far more idiosyncratic than previously understood. Scientists say they believe it is dependent on such factors as an individual’s infectivity, which can vary person to person by billions of virus particles, whether the particles are contained in large droplets that fall to the ground or in fine vapor that can float much further, and how much the air in a particular space circulates.

[Nocturnal Submission]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/h...n-schools.html

Children under 10 spread Covid-19 less, children over 10 spread it like adults.

Secondary schools in the UK to be super spreaders then.

I keep on meaning to ask you if you know of any stats. re. cases/outbreaks in schools, affecting either staff or pupils, since lockdown began?

[ursus arctos]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...are-discovered

Two weeks after Israel fully reopened schools, a COVID-19 outbreak sweeping through classrooms — including at least 130 cases at a single school — has led officials to close dozens of schools where students and staff were infected. A new policy orders any school where a virus case emerges to close.

The government decision, announced Wednesday evening, comes after more than 200 cases have been confirmed among students and staff at various schools. At least 244 students and school employees have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to the Ministry of Education. At least 42 kindergartens and schools have been shuttered indefinitely. More than 6,800 students and teachers are in home quarantine by government order.

A useful survey of experience here:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...pite-outbreaks

[Sporting]

This piece from the Washington Post (which should not be paywalled) provides a useful summary of current theories of transmission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rive-pandemic/

Thanks for that link

[Fussbudget]

I keep on meaning to ask you if you know of any stats. re. cases/outbreaks in schools, affecting either staff or pupils, since lockdown began?

Not sure if this is what you're after, but PHE's weekly report that I linked to a few pages back includes data on outbreaks in various types of institutions (schools, care homes, prisons etc.)

It lists how many outbreaks/suspected outbreaks (but not how many total cases) there were in each setting over the previous week and previous 4-week period, so if you go back through past reports you could compile the full picture for schools over the whole lockdown. The report from last week had 49 outbreaks in schools in the week ending 12 July, and 197 over the full 4-week period.

There's also a graph showing the number of outbreaks week by week but the scale of it makes it hard to tell what's going on because everything is dwarfed by the care home peak:

[Nocturnal Submission]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...are-discovered



A useful survey of experience here:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...pite-outbreaks

Thanks, UA. That Israeli case seems to be a bit of an outlier. What evidence there is, as per the other link, seems generally fairly positive.

I'll be interested to know if AE or any other teachers on the board are aware of any UK statistics, possibly figures collated by the unions.

[ursus arctos]

I thought that Science piece did a good job of describing how scattered the data is and how disparate (and changing) the conditions are.

It is very difficult to draw conclusions with confidence.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Not sure if this is what you're after, but PHE's weekly report that I linked to a few pages back includes data on outbreaks in various types of institutions (schools, care homes, prisons etc.)

It lists how many outbreaks/suspected outbreaks (but not how many total cases) there were in each setting over the previous week and previous 4-week period, so if you go back through past reports you could compile the full picture for schools over the whole lockdown. The report from last week had 49 outbreaks in schools in the week ending 12 July, and 197 over the full 4-week period.

There's also a graph showing the number of outbreaks week by week but the scale of it makes it hard to tell what's going on because everything is dwarfed by the care home peak:

Yes, I noticed that when you first put the graphs up but it then slipped my mind, so thanks for the reminder.

That more detailed breakdown than we're now getting is interesting, isn't it, but as you suggest the way it's being displayed isn't particularly revealing. I think we'd also need to know how many infected individuals constitute an outbreak and whether or not it's been proven that transmission was in the school rather than elsewhere in the community before we can make any firm judgements, but nearly 200 in a month does seem a lot.

[The Red Max]

Scottish weekend update:
Saturday - 21 new cases, 0 deaths
Sunday - 23 new cases, 0 deaths

The increase in positive tests is a bit concerning, although numbers are relatively low. Let's hope that 20-odd doesn't become 30, 40 or 50-odd in the coming weeks.

[Patrick Thistle]

There's been a bump in cases in Wales too - 31 reported today. And 1 death.

[David Agnew]

Scottish weekend update:
Saturday - 21 new cases, 0 deaths
Sunday - 23 new cases, 0 deaths

The increase in positive tests is a bit concerning, although numbers are relatively low. Let's hope that 20-odd doesn't become 30, 40 or 50-odd in the coming weeks.

The increase in positive tests may be down to one cluster:

https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1284890868961419269?s=20

[Antepli Ejderha]

Thanks, UA. That Israeli case seems to be a bit of an outlier. What evidence there is, as per the other link, seems generally fairly positive.

I'll be interested to know if AE or any other teachers on the board are aware of any UK statistics, possibly figures collated by the unions.

Nothing has been given to us by the unions. At the moment it's all about preventative measures that need to be put in place before the total reopening in September and making sure everyone feels as safe as they can be.

I know of at least ten teachers in my school who've self isolated, there have been at least three confirmed cases of Covid-19 amongst the staff but we've never been told to stay away and only one of those cases was told directly to staff.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Cliffs Of Moher made me want to throw up...

Guess where I'm going on tuesday? The cliffs themselves are likely fairly covid safe. It's fucking bracing up there

[Satchmo Distel]

The mask order that includes Pigeon Forge covers the whole of Sevier County, including Gatlinburg, which is a tourist hellhole to be avoided.

However, it should be noted that there are large gatherings at popular lookouts and trails throughout the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the visitors seem to think no masks outdoors is OK irrespective of crowding.

[Gangster Octopus]

Guess where I'm going on tuesday?

Why? That's like me going to the Tower Of London...

[Patrick Thistle]

Apparently, in Wales, the percentage of covid tests that are positive is down to 0.5% from 43% at the peak.

But that might be because at the peak they were literally just testing people.who were coming into hospital with breathing difficulties whereas now they are testing a lot of people, like care home staff, as a matter of course, whether they are symptomatic or not.

[S. aureus]

Spoke to my sister in the UK today. She said that her neighbour's office had recently all been tested for antibodies. Four people had them, only 1 of those 4 had experienced any symptoms at all. Also only one of those four had quarantined themselves while infected, as the rest were unaware that they had caught it.

[Diable Rouge]

Apparently, in Wales, the percentage of covid tests that are positive is down to 0.5% from 43% at the peak.

But that might be because at the peak they were literally just testing people.who were coming into hospital with breathing difficulties whereas now they are testing a lot of people, like care home staff, as a matter of course, whether they are symptomatic or not.

In Ireland, as a condition of admission to A and E, a covid swap is conducted, so presumably the same policy applies in the UK now.

[ooh aah]

I wouldn't make any assumptions about UK policy tbh