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    Originally posted by Lurgee View Post

    Wondering if that is due to lockdowns starting to have an impact; a lack of easily available new hosts; a weakening of the virus; decreasing reporting as people just suffer at home; or some/all of the above?

    Or just statistical variation?
    No idea. Your guess is as good as mine.

    The virus has been officially named Covid-19. I'm not convinced that's snappy enough to catch on.

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      Ah, it's too late, this is Coronavirus for better or worse.

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        Originally posted by Lurgee View Post

        Wondering if that is due to lockdowns starting to have an impact; a lack of easily available new hosts; a weakening of the virus; decreasing reporting as people just suffer at home; or some/all of the above?

        Or just statistical variation?
        or a one party state lying through their teeth?

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          Ah, it's too late, this is Coronavirus for better or worse.
          That's not very helpful, though, as there are lots of coronavirus strains.

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            12th February update.

            45,171 confirmed cases, 1,115 deaths. Japan now has 203 cases, but 175 of those are from the Diamond Princess cruise ship where one of the latest cases includes a quarantine officer. That's nearly 5% of the 3,700 passengers infected.

            Daily cases and deaths appear to be slowing slightly, but the accuracy of the information may not be reliable.

            One of the infected cases in the UK was an A&E worker, so it's highly likely there will be more cases here. A nursing home and two GP surgeries have closed for deep cleans due to infected health workers visiting them. Two prisoners at HMP Bullingdon are being tested. I imagine that the infection might spread in a prison in a similar way to on a cruise ship, similar close quarters with no escape.

            Hong Kong has 49 cases and is starting to experience economic consequences. There are queues at supermarkets and rationing has been introduced for the most in demand items such as rice, noodles, toilet rolls and disinfectants of all type.

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              Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
              That's nearly 5% of the 3,700 passengers infected.
              I mean, that seems pretty encouraging to me, given that a cruise ship is pretty much the worst possible case for a disease outbreak outside of something like a refugee camp.
              Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 12-02-2020, 10:27.

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                Good that the number of new deaths is, for the first time, not a new record, although as B notes, that might be inaccurate data.

                On the two stats I picked up earlier, the "deaths as a percentage of cases with outcome" figure is going down (last 3 days 21%-20%-19%), but the percentage of active cases which are severe or critical has gone up (last 3 days 18%-19%-21%).

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                  Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                  I mean, that seems pretty encouraging to me, given that a cruise ship is pretty much the worst possible case for a disease outbreak outside of something like a refugee camp.
                  Although, they've only tested about 490 passengers so far apparently. 175 out of 490 is more like 36% which doesn't sound as promising.

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                    Also worth noting that there are now three provinces in addition to Hubei that have more than 1,000 confirmed cases. Hubei only had 800 cases when I started this thread and now has over 33,000.



                    The UK has confirmed its 9th case, a woman who flew from China to London in the last few days.

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                      So, those supposedly declining cases in China was bollocks. The total just jumped nearly 15,000 in a day to over 60,000.

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                        The empty new hospitals story on the Guardian is alarming as well. Is there anything that fucker Xi won't do for show?

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                          Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                          So, those supposedly declining cases in China was bollocks. The total just jumped nearly 15,000 in a day to over 60,000.
                          Hubei just started counting differently - now using "clinically diagnosed" cases rather than "confirmed" cases. I presume in practice that means all the cases that doctors think are likely to be Covid19 rather than all the ones which have been tested as such.

                          Obviously no one has any idea what this means for overall trends. (The reason for the change is likely to be related to the wave of sackings of officials in the province including the governor. Presumably the replacements see it as in their interests to give the worst case figures to start off their new roles in the hope that they can get them to start falling)

                          Edit:not governor but party chief (the biggest job in the province anyway)
                          Last edited by ad hoc; 13-02-2020, 05:29.

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                            It doesn't help matters that the authorities have reportedly explained both that the change brings Hubei into line with the rest of the country and that it reflects a decision that Hubei should use a stricter standard.

                            Another 44 cases confirmed on the Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 218

                            Another cruise ship that had been refused landing by Japan and Taiwan has finally been allowed to moor off of Cambodia.

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                              The claim that the Chinese government is seeking judicial permission to kill 20,000 people floated across m wife's facebook page yesterday, shared by one of her acquaintances. About 20 seconds of googling revealed it to be a hoax. Why the Hell are people so obnoxiously, willfully awful?

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                                Why on earth would the Chinese government be "seeking judicial permission"?

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                                  Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                  It doesn't help matters that the authorities have reportedly explained both that the change brings Hubei into line with the rest of the country and that it reflects a decision that Hubei should use a stricter standard.

                                  Another 44 cases confirmed on the Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 218

                                  Another cruise ship that had been refused landing by Japan and Taiwan has finally been allowed to moor off of Cambodia.
                                  At this point, they're effectively painting a red cross on the Diamond Princess and waiting.

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                                    13th February update:

                                    60,396 cases, 1,369 deaths. The massive change is apparently due to Hubei now including anyone that a doctor has diagnosed clinically as suffering from Covid-19, even if there hasn't been laboratory test confirmation.

                                    This also changes a few of the other stats. It's now only 15% of cases in critical condition (down from 19-21%) and 18% of cases with outcome resulting in death (down from 19-20%).

                                    The case of the British businessman who went to a conference in Singapore continues to be concerning as more information emerges. He was infecting people for at least 12 days before he realised and even then, he didn't have any symptoms. The only reason he was tested was because someone warned him that there had been a coronavirus case at the conference. In those 12 days he'd been in a ski chalet in France (where he infected 11 people), been on a flight, been in various bars and yoga classes in Brighton, and infected two GPs who between them had worked at two GP surgeries, a nursing home and an A&E department. Containing this is going to be very tricky. I'm not even sure it's possible.

                                    Meanwhile, in China, there are clinical trials underway of HIV drugs and Ebola drugs to see if any of them are effective against Covid-19.

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                                      Japan reports its first death, an 80 year old from outside of Tokyo

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                                        Singapore had 8 new cases today, Hong Kong had 3, India had 2. If those numbers start going up, we'll be in for a long haul.

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                                          Slightly crazy story about a Russian woman who managed to abscond from quarantine by short-circuiting a lock and drawing a map of the hospital and is now refusing to open her flat door: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51488861

                                          In most places, I imagine the police would just kick the door down. I wonder if this woman's door is as reinforced as the flat I stayed in in Moscow. I'd never seen anything like it before. Solid steel, nearly a foot thick with multiple different lock varieties.

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                                            I didn't realise that MsD let out her old digs . . .

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                                              Some very pretty electron microscope photos of Covid-19:

                                              https://www.flickr.com/photos/niaid/...h/49531042877/

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                                                14th February update:

                                                64,456 cases, 1,384 deaths. I'm not entirely sure how many new cases there were today because China's health service released another report retracting about 1,000 of yesterday's cases and about 100 of the deaths, saying they were repeated statistics. I think it'll take a couple of days for the numbers to settle down and to be able to see any sort of pattern again.

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                                                  I know I shouldn't be surprised by this, but I rarely read tabloids and wasn't really aware of how sensationalised this was becoming. Yesterday I made the mistake of picking up a copy of the metro on the train and found them reporting a man in India who committed suicide after watching too many videos about coronavirus and becoming convinced he was infected. Then today I accidentally clicked on a Daily Mail link claiming that 8 planes are in lockdown at Heathrow due to suspected infections. The most concerning thing though, was that they're referring to it as SARS-Cov-2, which is not an official name I've seen anywhere else. Having multiple different names floating around for the same virus is entirely unhelpful.

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