Poll: Irish general election edition

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The modern parliamentary party, and Foreign Direct Investment.

We also instituted the proud tradition of making the head of military intelligence the richest man in the country. We are also pioneers in advanced Bankruptcy studies.

What do direct injection diesel engines have to do with advances in the fields of Clientelism?

[Diable Rouge]

Biggest surprise in the Kerry poll is the Green figure - no real history of electoral success here (though Marcus Counihan was the first Green councillor in Ireland, in Killarney), but their candidate, Cleo Murphy, is a contender for the final seat:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1224771690443481090

[elguapo4]

Biggest surprise in the Kerry poll is the Green figure - no real history of electoral success here (though Marcus Counihan was the first Green councillor in Ireland, in Killarney), but their candidate, Cleo Murphy, is a contender for the final seat:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1224771690443481090

I seem to remember somebody passing on water cooler gossip about Danny being Donald Ducked and the Kerry correspondent poo pooing it. Like yourself hopefully it's right.

[Diable Rouge]

The caution here is that TG4 also conducted a Kerry poll in 2016, and DHR got ...4%.

[Diable Rouge]

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1224815261125087233?s=21[/URL]

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Or is it that Traditional Orthodoxy and Traditional Catholicism are peas of the same pod?

See at this point we're getting into the underlying cultures I think. For instance Unionists are into clientelism too. There's a real sense that the DUP is two parties glued together. There's the protestant supremacist sectarian wing of the party, and then there's the Fianna fail for protestants element. The problem though is their political culture is a bit primitive, and that Cash for Ash scam marks them out as the clientelist equivalent of the Limerick gangsters, who instead of sophisticated money laundering schemes, just keep their cash in wheely bins in their house. There's plenty of protestants in Scotland that were well able to play this game. it is an old game.

See we were well into this sort of thing long before we adopted our crazed brand of extremist Catholicism in the 1850s. I think it brings us back to whether or not a religion influences the underlying culture, or it acts as a means for the underlying culture to act.

BTW that article about sinn Fein refers to Eoin O'Broin as one who lends intellectual heft to SF. But it's a sort of intellectual heft that we've seen before in many times and places, but very often with those round glasses, and on that kind of face. The sort of Intelligence that is extremely relaxed about the idea of having large numbers of other people die for your beliefs. I found This interview he did with olivia O'Leary was quite eyeopening.

The Background is that they are talking about O'Connell's monster meeting in clontarf. in the lead up to the Famine, Daniel O'connell was holding a series of huge meetings in support of the repeal of the act of the union. They all had more than 100,000 people at them, which given the massive rural population is easy enough to believe. The one at tara was supposed to have a million people at it, and looking at pictures of what a million irish people in a field looked like when JPII came to fisit, It's not hard to believe.

Anyway Having had one at Tara, the old seat of the High Kings, They were going to have another huge one in clontarf on the site of the battle in 1014. Robert Peel banned it, and made it clear that he would use the army against such a crowd. So if O'Connell gathered his million people in clontarf, the british would have used artillery and the the death toll in the crush alone would have been nighrmarish, and spiralled ireland into violent revolution, just as the blight was about to make its first appearance in ireland.

That's what Eoin O'Broin thinks O'Connell should have done because it would have advanced the cause of Irish freedom. It's those round glasses. It's like they possessed him. Talking about potential mass slaughter in that context, in those glasses, make him look like the hellish offspring of himmler and Beria.

[Diable Rouge]

McDonald surprisingly weak here, lots of soundbytes but no substance, and clobbered in relation to the murder of Paul Quinn - could well cost them many marginal seats that were coming into contention, even if it will make little difference to the FF v FG scrap.

[Lang Spoon]

Clientelism is how all Scottish politics works outside the central belt (and Slabour once knew how to play it within Civilisation as well), it's why the Liberals have been constantly re-elected since 1885 in Orkney and Shetland (though to be fair Gladstone did raise them from Serfdom with the Crofters Act, and Jo Grimmond made them a mini Norway when oil was discovered and forced a council dividend for them through 70s Westminster)).

It's also clientelism that's the only reason a pure eejit (and an eejit caught in a Three in a Bed sex scandal while representing the only God Fearing Prod religious constituency left in Scotland) like Angus B McNeill for the Western Isles can keep his seat for the Nats (though the western isles are split between god fearing prod madsers and forgiving Cafflicks tbf).

[Lang Spoon]

McDonald surprisingly weak here, lots of soundbytes but no substance, and clobbered in relation to the murder of Paul Quinn - could well cost them many marginal seats that were coming into contention, even if it will make little difference to the FF v FG scrap.

Their best hope was being banned from all the head to head debates. And the likes of Dessie Ellis and the Nordies disappearing completely for three weeks.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Mary lou is a fucking thug. and it was funny to watch her stumble there on that Paul Quinn bit, Before recovering her stride to resume her moralistic bullying.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Also fair dues to her for managing to completely misuse the term mansplain.

[Lang Spoon]

At a very callous level, he's right but Berba. A massacre of civilians at Clontarf would probably have acted as a catalyst against British rule. And brought the European Style 1848 type revolution to Ireland in a form more like what happened in Hungary, or Frankfurt. Would prob still have failed, but the Hungarians got the Dual Monarchy out of their bloody failure.

[ursus arctos]

I think it brings us back to whether or not a religion influences the underlying culture, or it acts as a means for the underlying culture to act.

This is a very interesting question, and I tend to think that you are probably right.

[Lang Spoon]

Mary lou is a fucking thug. and it was funny to watch her stumble there on that Paul Quinn bit, Before recovering her stride to resume her moralistic bullying.

Mary Lou is more an articulate South Dub FF rep adrift in a sea of Legitimate Community Activists than a full-on thug tbh.

[Lang Spoon]

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955

Only right. Can't be fair the most gombeen of electorates get to decide possibly the make up of the next govt having all other results to hand.

[DCI Harry Batt]

This thread struck me as worth saying

https://twitter.com/Jenni4Canesten/status/1224764213714989057?s=19

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

At a very callous level, he's right but Berba. A massacre of civilians at Clontarf would probably have acted as a catalyst against British rule. And brought the European Style 1848 type revolution to Ireland in a form more like what happened in Hungary, or Frankfurt. Would prob still have failed, but the Hungarians got the Dual Monarchy out of their bloody failure.

He's effectively saying that he would not hesitate to get 100,000 of his own supporters killed by a mixture of artillery and a stampede, in order to achieve his aims. When people tell us who they are, it's important to listen. People who are prepared to have other people die for their beliefs, while showing no desire to put themselves at risk, are the worst people on the planet.

That thread above isn't quite right. Those parties have apologized in the dail for that, for all the good it did. It was relatively easy for the people involved to make that apology because the politicians involved are long dead. The people who need to apologise in Sinn Fein aren't dead. They're still running the fucking party.

[Lang Spoon]

To be charitable he was talking about Way Back When. Big Party types are always up for eulogising all kinds of pointless Self Sacrifice, providing it ideally happened prior to the Civil War, after which things get a bit more Complicated, and votes may be lost. Even Labour is guilty of this re Larkin and the Fabled Lockout/the Citizen Army in 1916 zzzzz...

I don't like the Shinners but every other party has blood on their hands, bar the Greens and the Micro Trots.

[ad hoc]

Is O'Broin's argument that if there had been this massacre, the resultant Irish freedom would have meant that many fewer people would have died in the famine? Because if so, it;s one of those horrible moral puzzles like an extreme version of the trolley problem. And yes, in isolation the idea that the death of say 10,000 at Clontarf would be worth the resultant revolution is pretty appalling - but it does look slightly different if he's arguing that in so doing the number of deaths in the famine could have been halved, say, from 1million

[Nefertiti2]

Also himmler actually murdered millions.

O Broin was advocating participation in a demonstration in which Peel would have probably have ordered the British to have shot a number of demonstrators dead, as the British did in say Amritsar.

these things are not the same. Even if both himmler and O Broin wore little round glasses.

[anton pulisov]

The caution here is that TG4 also conducted a Kerry poll in 2016, and DHR got ...4%.

Dinny and his climate codology being edged out by a Green candidate would be handy enough.

[Diable Rouge]

Storm Ciara is due to hit Ireland on polling day, and in 2016 turnout was already rather poor, at 65%:

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1225015229349842944

[E10 Rifle]

Anyway, who are all our eligible Irish voters here voting for?

[Duncan Gardner]

The poll on page 1 has Green, Labour and PBP all tied on 25%