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The Dis-United Kingdom Thread - (Indyref 2, United Ireland poll, Welsh independence)

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    Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post

    I get that its more popular in Scotland than the Tories are in the UK, but that's kind of a low bar. It just seems like you'd want more support before you break with over 300 years of union and into a somewhat unknown future. Of course, the same can be said for f'ing Brexit and a whole lot of other things, but I'm not sure the voters will see it that way.

    I tried to read up on this and I couldn't find polling data that would make me very confident that IndyRef2 will have a different result than IndyRef1. I couldn't find anything that showed a clear majority of Scots are now in favor of independence. But then I haven't seen any polling taken from this week. I certainly see the logic in getting out of the UK and into the EU, but 300 years of inertia is a lot to overcome.*

    What a majority of Scots want, clearly, is to be part of the UK that is in the EU. But they can't have that now. So they're definitely going to be worse off in the future than they would have been if Brexit hadn't happened. So now it's just a choice between two options nobody is really happy with. If they stay in the UK, they'll lose vital connections to Europe. If they leave the UK and join Europe, they'll probably lose some connections with the rest of the UK.

    The EU is bigger, if nothing else, and overall more amenable to the kind of society most Scots want to have, so that would seem like the obvious choice. I don't know how to answer the "what about my pension" concerns. There may be an answer, but I'm not sure what it is because this is just one of many things that has no impact on my life that I spend way too much time worrying about.

    * And I don't blame them. If it came to it to vote for Pennsylvania to be annexed by Canada or something like that, at first I'd be all for it, but I would also be very afraid of the unknowns. The devil you know and what not.
    That is a very good summation HP.

    I wrote the note below to an Australian pal just after the election result. Time has moved on a little.



    On the political front, nobody really saw that coming, well not to that extent. Re another Indy vote, the SNP will seek one in a week or so but Westminster will knock it back. The SNP don’t really want one now. It’s just too close to call – for both sides. If it’s a second NAW! Then it’s truly gassed for a generation. If the Tories play cute and avoid playing the Imperial masters and throw enough crumbs our way then there probably won’t be a real push for Indy 2 anyway but that’s quite a big ask with these cunts. There is a formula that means we get 10% of any additional UK spending so expect that to be looked at very closely.

    Brexit isn’t ‘done’ despite the rhetoric. We will be out in January but a trade deal will take years. I suspect we’ll be out on ‘No Deal’ in a year then. If things really fall apart economically next year and the SNP win a big majority ie more than 50% of MSPs for Indy in the 2021 Scottish elections, there will be a big push for another Indy referendum thereafter. But we have proportional representation voting which makes getting a really big majority very difficult.

    Legally, Westminster can refuse but in the right circumstances they’ll find that very hard. But, depending on economics and politics, they might have shifted so far along the fascist spectrum by then that they don’t care about just saying no or actually encourage us to fuck off. They are quite happy to shaft Norn Iron right now so who knows? What I do know is that any referendum would be very, very dirty and cause huge splits in Scotland and UK. And we would undoubtedly get shafted. I’m not saying that should stop it but it will colour a lot of views.

    But hey, Boris might build his 40 (6 actually) new hospitals, employ his 50,000 (well 20,000 of them aren’t technical ‘new’) new nurses and 20,000 (roughly the number the Tories have cut in last decade) new police and oversee an economic miracle the makes us great again!


    …………………………………………………………..

    I'm sure I read somewhere recently that renewables contribute 75% of Scotland's energy needs and that we export 25% of our energy capacity. I need to check that but we are doing reasonably well on that front. In fact, I think the UK as a whole has a 'good' record re fighting the Climate Emergency. Not good enough but in comparison to other major economies, a new lignite mine Mutti?

    Interesting re the whole fossil fuel angle and its potential effect on Scotland's economy. Unfortunately, I think we'll need the fossil fuels right up until those fires reach London, New York and Beijing. Unless something quite remarkable happens in the very near future. You know, all the countries of the world come together and agree a plan that saves the world. Yes, a huge amount of money needs spending on mitigation but we need huge amounts spent on research into the likes of wave power. It has to be better than wind or solar. It comes in and goes out every day. Set up teams across the world and throw billions at them. Give them all the engineers, scientists and inventors they need and say 'crack on, you have 12 months'. Be doing that with hundreds of other ideas too.

    I fear now that if we don't, and don't start acting quickly and collectively, all the money in the world will be worthless.



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      Do the SNP need to win a majority in Holyrood or will it be good enough if the majority are pro indyref2 and willing to work together? The Greens are pro Indy, right?

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        Yes, the Scottish Greens are pro Indy.

        I once helped the co leader look for his lost bicycle clip.

        These facts are unconnected.

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          Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post
          Do the SNP need to win a majority in Holyrood or will it be good enough if the majority are pro indyref2 and willing to work together? The Greens are pro Indy, right?
          The AV plus voting system in place in Scotland was pretty much designed to avoid majorities (both to placate fears of the then dominant SLab steamrolling culchie voices and general opposition with their Central Belt hegemony, and to stop the SNP from ever doing the same (though few thought that ever possible)) and create consensus politics (Labour ran a coalition with the LibDems 1999-2007 (and the libs kept them honest) and the SNP were a minority Govt 2007-11, as they are again).

          the SNP absolute majority in the 2011-16 Parliament should be seen as exceptional and was utterly unexpected (certainly by the Nats). I doubt it will ever be repeated, barring Events.
          Last edited by Lang Spoon; 20-12-2019, 17:53.

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            The Scottish additional member system is nowt like AV.

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              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
              As were significant swathes of London.

              Though Dublin (and Ireland) still stood out to me, largely for the reason you state. It was a strikingly poor country.
              yeah our family moved from Dublin to the European continent in 1986.

              It was the socioeconomic equivalent of getting upgraded to a middle seat in economy class after years of having to sit in the hold with the chickens.

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                Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                The Scottish additional member system is nowt like AV.


                Soz, it's been twenty years since I studied all this guff, got my AV and AMS acronyms mixed up.

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                  The truly fucked up thing about Scottish voting is there are 3 different voting systems in play (4 really counting soon defunct MEP elections that used the Party List): FPTP to Castle Greyskull, AMS to Holyrood, and STV for council elections. Unlike the expert gamers of the STV system in Ireland, no one has a clue how it works in Scotland, loads of spoiled votes cause people aren't used to numbering preferences.

                  if you're a casual not particularly engaged voter who isn't tagging fuckin Prof John Curtice, the proliferation of different systems is bound to be confusing and enervating.

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                    I recommend tagging Curtice. No idea how he swings in the sack...

                    If the sophisticated electorate of Duncairn can manage STV surely we can trust Auchtermuchty with it?

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                      Yep, of course. But so many voting systems is just ridiculous, and there was fuck all in the way of political education done when the Lib Dem massive forced SLab to implement STV. The same system for both Holyrood and the Cooncil, surely?
                      Last edited by Lang Spoon; 20-12-2019, 20:11.

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                        [URL="https://mobile.twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1208007725059379200"]https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1208007725059379200[/URL]

                        as ever, Co. Longford's Glasgow correspondent knows the score.

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                          The braying cunts on Newsnight (chaired by that terrible bastard (my Maw having served her more than once despises her high handed Ayrshire entitled Proddy boarding school bullshit manner) Kirsty Wark) confirms why Scotland needs to get the fuck out of UKania fast. Speccy IEA woman is terrifying. Wark's questions asinine bullshit.

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                            Yma o Hyd yw rhif un ar iTunes

                            https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51083459

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                              Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                              The truly fucked up thing about Scottish voting is there are 3 different voting systems in play (4 really counting soon defunct MEP elections that used the Party List): FPTP to Castle Greyskull, AMS to Holyrood, and STV for council elections. Unlike the expert gamers of the STV system in Ireland, no one has a clue how it works in Scotland, loads of spoiled votes cause people aren't used to numbering preferences.

                              if you're a casual not particularly engaged voter who isn't tagging fuckin Prof John Curtice, the proliferation of different systems is bound to be confusing and enervating.
                              Seriously, if you can't grasp STV, You probably shouldn't vote.

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                                Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post

                                Seriously, if you can't grasp STV, You probably shouldn't vote.
                                DR probably knows the answer to save me checking- isn't the frequency of spoiled votes broadly similar in both STV and FPTP elections?

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                                  Most folk aren't political wonks. If you must have a mess of multiple electoral systems for different votes, there needs to be mass campaigns explaining clearly how each works.

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                                    People need educated that they can vote all the way down the ballot. This is where the spoiled ballots (people putting x not a number) happen in Scots council elections.

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                                      Better to

                                      a) pick the best of those 4 systems listed above, then

                                      b) use it for elections at every level, while

                                      c) running an information campaign for current and future voters. Starting in primary school; the kids can then explain it to their (grand) parents.

                                      The 'most people aren't geeks' is just a variant of 'they're too dim to cope with any change'. STV works pretty well in Duncairn and New Lodge,it would be fine anywhere else.

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                                        Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post

                                        DR probably knows the answer to save me checking- isn't the frequency of spoiled votes broadly similar in both STV and FPTP elections?
                                        In the last Irish GE, it seems there were 1% spoiled/invalid ballots, - unfortunately, no details on the UK election pages about relevant figures.

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                                          I've nothing against STV, just against having multiple systems.

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                                            One of the features of the UK's AV referendum was the claim that the proposed system was too complicated for people to understand, despite The X Factor using it and getting several million votes each week.

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                                              Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                                              One of the features of the UK's AV referendum was the claim that the proposed system was too complicated for people to understand, despite The X Factor using it and getting several million votes each week.
                                              And, of course, Scotland, Wales, NI and London were already using systems of greater complexity by that point.

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                                                Spoony- with you on consistent systems. I would accept AMS as an improvement on FPTP

                                                Snake- the Tories and Media will happily chide anyone suggesting that voters are ill-infomed/ lazy/ prejudiced while parroting the same lines themselves

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                                                  Aye Dunc, that would be my preference too. Doesn't do a bad job in Germany as well as Holyrood. It mightn't be perfectly proportional, but then neither is STV.

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                                                    Spoony- that's true. For me transferable votes make up for any lack of perfect proportionality

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