The Dis-United Kingdom Thread - (Indyref 2, United Ireland poll, Welsh independence)

[Diable Rouge]

Back on thread:

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1207714205782163456

[Antepli Ejderha]

Good luck to Scotland and to a United Ireland.

My Brexit supporting dad lived in Scotland between the ages of 4 to 24, I hope that means he'd get a passport and then I could get one for my whole family.

[Lang Spoon]

The SNP policy is to avoid blood based entitlement to citizenship(beyond parents), and base on residency. Like Ireland before the racist referendum in the previous boom.

[Hot Pepsi]

Back on thread:

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1207714205782163456

This doesn't seem like enough of a majority, somehow.

[Lang Spoon]

SLab chickened out and whipped to vote against (2 of their Left MSPs abstained against the whip). It's always gonna be green and SNP versus Unionist Tory Slab and LibDem (awful awful cunts in Scotland these days) shitebags till SLab either dies or sees sense. About 40% of Slab remaining voters support independence. But that's forty percent of fuck all the way they are going (they got 19% of Scots votes on the 12th).

[Lang Spoon]

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.dail...p-21130419.amp

[Lang Spoon]

Basically all three U.K. wide parties are chasing the We Said No vote even if it kills them. I'm old enuf to remember when the Lib Dem cunts were the driving force behind a Constitutional Convention pre devolution (shaming Labour into joining it in the 80s) and once wanted far more meaningful powers ceded to Scotland than the half Parliament they are apparently happy with now. Fuck sake in the 70s the Libs were flirting with Scotland being an Independent State within the EU (when the Nats were way more Eurosceptic).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

While the gorbals and the east end near the centre can probably be stitched back together, whole swathes of NE Glasgow like Possil and Springburn seem perma fucked. More gapsites and wasteground than buildings, would be as well turning to parkland and move folk into a re densified core (Glasgow has gone from the most overpopulated city core in Europe to less dense than Dublin).

Yes but Dublin used to have one of the most heavily overpopulated city cores in europe and then one of the lowest city centre populations in europe, before gradually bouncing back a bit. The Dublin you arrived in was completely different to the Dublin I arrived in 10 years earlier, which in turn was completely different to the Dublin I remember from 10 years before that. You should check out the Commitments again. That gives you a really good idea of what an utter wasteland Dublin was.

[Patrick Thistle]

Back on thread:
]

Yay

[Lang Spoon]

Nah PT, gonna have loads more Urban Regen chit chat man.

[Lang Spoon]

This doesn't seem like enough of a majority, somehow.

HP, this isn't a vote for Indy, just a vote to hold another Indyref (and another Bill would go through to actually set a date).

The Nats have held a majority of Jocko seats in WM since 2015 (now 80% in an admittedly stupid system) and have Pro Indy majority in the PR lite (similar to Germany-one FPTP Constituency vote and one party list vote per person) Holyrood Parliament since 2011 (since 2016 with the Pro Indy Greens supporting a minority SNP admin).

They have more a mandate than the fuckin Tories do UK wide, by vote share or proportion of seats won.

[Eggchaser]

Go with our blessing, Scotland. Save yourselves!

[Hot Pepsi]

HP, this isn't a vote for Indy, just a vote to hold another Indyref (and another Bill would go through to actually set a date).

The Nats have held a majority of Jocko seats in WM since 2015 (now 80% in an admittedly stupid system) and have Pro Indy majority in the PR lite Holyrood Parliament since 2011 (since 2016 with the Pro Indy Greens supporting a minority SNP admin).

They have more a mandate than the fuckin Tories do UK wide, by vote share or proportion of seats won.

I get that its more popular in Scotland than the Tories are in the UK, but that's kind of a low bar. It just seems like you'd want more support before you break with over 300 years of union and into a somewhat unknown future. Of course, the same can be said for f'ing Brexit and a whole lot of other things, but I'm not sure the voters will see it that way.

I tried to read up on this and I couldn't find polling data that would make me very confident that IndyRef2 will have a different result than IndyRef1. I couldn't find anything that showed a clear majority of Scots are now in favor of independence. But then I haven't seen any polling taken from this week. I certainly see the logic in getting out of the UK and into the EU, but 300 years of inertia is a lot to overcome.*

What a majority of Scots want, clearly, is to be part of the UK that is in the EU. But they can't have that now. So they're definitely going to be worse off in the future than they would have been if Brexit hadn't happened. So now it's just a choice between two options nobody is really happy with. If they stay in the UK, they'll lose vital connections to Europe. If they leave the UK and join Europe, they'll probably lose some connections with the rest of the UK.

The EU is bigger, if nothing else, and overall more amenable to the kind of society most Scots want to have, so that would seem like the obvious choice. I don't know how to answer the "what about my pension" concerns. There may be an answer, but I'm not sure what it is because this is just one of many things that has no impact on my life that I spend way too much time worrying about.

* And I don't blame them. If it came to it to vote for Pennsylvania to be annexed by Canada or something like that, at first I'd be all for it, but I would also be very afraid of the unknowns. The devil you know and what not.

[Lang Spoon]

Yeah that's mostly about where things are HP. And really, Sturgeon doesn't want an Indyref in 2020. She wants cuntybaws Johnson to act the tone deaf Thatcher maggot and block giving Holyrood the power to hold a Ref, so in the 2021 Holyrood election the Nats (in theory) sweep up, fired with Righteous Grievance. I also think Sturgeon still wants polls nearing 60% Yes before pulling the trigger.

the Bill just passed does extend the franchise for Indyref 2 to EU Citizens as well as 16-17 year olds (who could vote last time), and I'd imagine most of those are nailed on Yes. And that's a few hundred thousand extra votes, in theory. In fact (though I can't be sure and am too drunk to check) the Bill may extend the franchise for the Ref to all people resident in Scotland, no matter nationality. I think EU citizens could vote in 2014 and understandably voted no.

Also by then the shape of Brexit may be more clear. If it's hard and racist and economy killing, maybe folk will jump (though that would mean a customs border). If it's softer than expected, who knows... but the softer the brexit the easier it is for Scotland to be both an Indy member of the EU and also enjoy relatively unencumbered trade with its land border neighbour (currently by far the biggest trading partner for Scotland is England).

I'm still sceptical Scotland will ever go for Indy, no matter how shit life in Brexit Racist Island gets, but then I am a miserable cunt.

[Hot Pepsi]

Why did they do a vote on it this week if their plan is to let Brexit fester a bit longer and not do an IndyRef2 until after 2021? Or will it take that long to happen regardless?

[Flynnie]

San Francisco got a huge assist from the Loma Prieta earthquake, which meant that retrofitting the Embarcader Freeway would have cost billions. Seattle's removal of the Alaska Way Viaduct is a better example of a purely popular-driven decision.

It wasn’t purely popular, it was in large part because it was feared a quake would make the Cypress Freeway tragedy (I think 2/3rds of the deaths due to Loma Prieta were on that one stretch of pancaked freeway) look like child’s play.

Like the Embarcadero Freeway, there were proposals to junk it dating back to the 1960s, but what got removing the Alaska Way Viaduct going was the studies showing what a risk it was in the event of a quake. What also helped was the lack of a political constituency who wanted the freeway around at all costs, unlike Chinatown. Art Agnos ended his political career by taking the opportunity of a lifetime, as he put it.

[ursus arctos]

What TAB says about Dublin is really true.

There are three distinct periods of my life during which I spent time there, and with people from there.

1984, 1996 and 2005

Three completely radically cities, populated by people with radically different attitudes (some of whom where the same people, but almost unrecognisable).

One could say the same thing about New York in the 70s and New York in the mid-2000s, but Dublin strikes me as even a more emblematic case, perhaps because it is much smaller.

[Nocturnal Submission]

So, hugely complex issue I realise, but have there been any studies as to the effect of the the progressive decarbonisation of the world's economies might affect Scottish oil revenues?

[Nocturnal Submission]

What TAB says about Dublin is really true.

There are three distinct periods of my life during which I spent time there, and with people from there.

1984, 1996 and 2005

Three completely radically cities, populated by people with radically different attitudes (some of whom where the same people, but almost unrecognisable).

One could say the same thing about New York in the 70s and New York in the mid-2000s, but Dublin strikes me as even a more emblematic case, perhaps because it is much smaller.

That's interesting. Can you expand a bit on what you saw?

[Hot Pepsi]

I forget what time period The Committments was about.

So, is the pattern you're suggesting: overcrowded and unpleasant followed by undercrowded and blighted followed by medium crowded and gentrified? That seems to be the pattern of a lot of cities since the War.

[Lang Spoon]

Why did they do a vote on it this week if their plan is to let Brexit fester a bit longer and not do an IndyRef2 until after 2021? Or will it take that long to happen regardless?

This week the Nats are riding high and England/Wales have gone insane. It makes sense, especially when Johnson will immediately block the Section 30 request for a referendum. Its a a live issue to keep the Ultra Nats from getting restless and a probable vote winner in the next election.

Also in January Alex Salmond will face trial on multiple counts of sexual assault and attempted rape and the Scottish media keep insinuating Sturgeon (there are unminuted meeting between the slimy fucker and Sturgeon that may prove crucial in the trial or subsequent parliamentary inquiry) may not survive the fallout, all bets are off etc, last chance fer Nats.

How much is Unionist wish fulfilment I've no idea, but the frothing unsightly ultra Indy (and transphobe) wing of the SNP is pro Salmond and lukewarm at best re Sturgeon (including Joanna Cherry and the fucker suspended from the Nats for anti Semitic retweets even as he won his seat against SLab in my hometown on the 12th).

[Lang Spoon]

So, hugely complex issue I realise, but have there been any studies as to the effect of the the progressive decarbonisation of the world's economies might affect Scottish oil revenues?

Nope, but Scotland is better placed re renewables than most.

[Lang Spoon]

That's interesting. Can you expand a bit on what you saw?

PT's not gonna like this.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Nope, but Scotland is better placed re renewables than most.

Yes, indeed. Is Scotland expecting renewable energy-sourced electricity exports to offset the loss of oil and gas revenues then?

[Lang Spoon]

I think diversifying the economy to not be dependant on exporting energy sources of any kind would be more sensible. Also much of the renewable sector remains a reserved power, Osborne fucked Scottish research and private investment in tidal power by cutting tax breaks.