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The Dis-United Kingdom Thread - (Indyref 2, United Ireland poll, Welsh independence)

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    Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post

    The regional breakdown is weird. I'm not sure whether the North trailing is because the Senedd is seen as a Cardiff thing or if they said no to devo max because they want full independence. Or if it's just because they have more old people.
    The old people are often people who've not lived in Wales their whole life and have moved there to retire.

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      And the Cheshire Set who've occupied Abersock.

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        More surprising to me is the S.East figure up at 63. This is the area that was, iirc, the strongest against devolution in 97. I think Newport voted 1 to 4 against.

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          Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post

          The regional breakdown is weird. I'm not sure whether the North trailing is because the Senedd is seen as a Cardiff thing or if they said no to devo max because they want full independence. Or if it's just because they have more old people.
          The difference between Cardiff and the North is nearly entirely be explained away as an artefact of the different age profiles between North Wales and Cardiff.

          If you plug in those figures for age into ONS data for population it suggests that simply based on age profile 55% of people in North Wales and 63% of people in Cardiff would be in favour of Devo Max, so pretty close to any margin of error.

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            Originally posted by Bizarre Löw Triangle View Post

            The difference between Cardiff and the North is nearly entirely be explained away as an artefact of the different age profiles between North Wales and Cardiff.

            If you plug in those figures for age into ONS data for population it suggests that simply based on age profile 55% of people in North Wales and 63% of people in Cardiff would be in favour of Devo Max, so pretty close to any margin of error.
            Presumably there would be significant differences between the North-West (more Welsh-speaking), and the North-East (less so, more influenced by Liverpool and Cheshire)?

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              I don't think it's that simple. A lot of retirees or people with money and a hankering for a James Bond villain style clifftop lair live in the West.

              Mind you, increasing numbers of people on social media seem to be saying "I'm English and live in Wales and I think Wales should be independent."

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                Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
                And the Cheshire Set who've occupied Abersock.
                Great typo.

                I'll come clean, I want Welsh independence because I like mountains and coasts, I want to move out of Westminster jurisdiction, NZ is a bit too far without flying a lot of miles and I just can not learn fucking German. I promise to be useful.

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                  Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post

                  Presumably there would be significant differences between the North-West (more Welsh-speaking), and the North-East (less so, more influenced by Liverpool and Cheshire)?
                  If you look at the 2011 referendum, the bottom 4 counties in terms of yes vote (as a proportion of eligible voters) went Newport, Wrexham, Monmouthshire, Flintshire. However, Wrexham also had the second smallest proportion of eligible voters voting no.

                  Gwynedd and Anglesey are in the top four in terms of yes vote as a percentage of registered voters, but Anglesey was carried for yes by a similar percentage to Wrexham. Which suggests that voters in the North East are simply less engaged about devolution than voters in the North West (though of course, that might also be another artefact of population age).

                  Course that all might have changed in the last decade.
                  Last edited by Bizarre Löw Triangle; 20-11-2020, 17:11.

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                    Originally posted by ChrisJ View Post

                    Great typo.
                    Deliberate misspelling. The way the Cheshire Set say it (on Twitter anyways)

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                      Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post

                      Deliberate misspelling. The way the Cheshire Set say it (on Twitter anyways)
                      Ah! Cheers.

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                        Welsh Labour softening on independence? Maybe they realised 51% of Labour voters are pro-Indy now.

                        https://twitter.com/YesCymru/status/1330868237744082944?s=19

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                          At least they've learnt from the fate and useless embrace of Ultra Unionism of their useless Slab brethren. Wonder how long before HQ and Starmer slap them down for having Notions.

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                            Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                            At least they've learnt from the fate and useless embrace of Ultra Unionism of their useless Slab brethren. Wonder how long before HQ and Starmer slap them down for having Notions.
                            It does seem like they've learnt lessons from North of the border, and with their being no SNP equivalent they didn't need to in the short term. Johnson and Starmer will fuck them over regardless.

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