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The Dis-United Kingdom Thread - (Indyref 2, United Ireland poll, Welsh independence)

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    The Dis-United Kingdom Thread - (Indyref 2, United Ireland poll, Welsh independence)

    Seeing as our Celtic colleagues have already set the ball rolling in the GE discussion, an omnibus thread to consider how the rise of English nationalism, now the dominant theme within the Conservative Party, has generated counter-reactions, particularly within Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    Starting in Caledonia, and while the SNP may have cleared up in terms of seat numbers, 45% is still down on the 2015 zenith, and if Sturgeon is to pursue another referendum, either legally or illegally, she will have to consider how the Yes campaign can sufficiently develop its socioeconomic arguments to draw in support from Labour and Lib Dem voters (EFTA as a stepping stone to EU membership, perhaps?).

    Likewise, in Northern Ireland, the worst mistake nationalists could make at the present time would be to regard a united Ireland poll as principally a political campaign. Rather, any all-island forum to consider the topic should solely comprise civic groupings, such as sporting organisations, business groupings, and cultural and religious bodies, lessening concerns through bottom-up debates.

    As for Wales, the growth in the Tory vote appears to have followed the English pattern, primarily in North Wales, but if Plaid is to follow the SNP blueprint, grassroot development at council and Senedd level seems the only option.

    #2
    https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/1205283821719080961

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      #3
      Does it matter? Will Scotland even get an indyref2? The Tory Party has been completely taken over by the nasties. The Westminster government has a massive majority and is filled with people who couldn't give a shit about what Scotland or Northern Ireland think. The tail can't be wagging the dog now, can it. Many in the current Tory were against the Good Friday agreement.

      It's highly conceivable that when Brexit is no longer an issue, Johnson might realise that he can shore up his votes in Little England by being "strong on Scotland".

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        #4
        Fairly stunning quote there from Nesbitt.

        It's like they've just discovered that "the Union" is in fact a vehicle for English nationalism.

        They need our government, we need their FA.... it could work.

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          #5
          The two biggest issues the SNP had in 2014 was question marks over EU membership and currency, neither of which they had a plausible answer to. Arguably neither of those factors is in play anymore. Independence would actually preserve their EU membership, and the panic over the Euro zone has completely dropped off the radar as a political story, and given the repeated gangbanging that the pound is about to get over the next few years, the Euro will look appealingly stable in comparison.

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            #6
            Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
            Does it matter? Will Scotland even get an indyref2? The Tory Party has been completely taken over by the nasties. The Westminster government has a massive majority and is filled with people who couldn't give a shit about what Scotland or Northern Ireland think. The tail can't be wagging the dog now, can it. Many in the current Tory were against the Good Friday agreement.

            It's highly conceivable that when Brexit is no longer an issue, Johnson might realise that he can shore up his votes in Little England by being "strong on Scotland".
            Johnson can also guarantee Tory rule forever in Wengland if Scotland goes...

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              #7
              Every election brings claims that whichever party one will never lose again. It never works out that way.

              Scotland isn't doing anything to help Labour now, but an independent Scotland and Ireland in the EU could serve as a dangerous "good example" next to isolated, racist England/Wales.

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                #8
                Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
                Seeing as our Celtic colleagues have already set the ball rolling in the GE discussion, an omnibus thread to consider how the rise of English nationalism, now the dominant theme within the Conservative Party, has generated counter-reactions, particularly within Scotland and Northern Ireland.

                Starting in Caledonia, and while the SNP may have cleared up in terms of seat numbers, 45% is still down on the 2015 zenith, and if Sturgeon is to pursue another referendum, either legally or illegally, she will have to consider how the Yes campaign can sufficiently develop its socioeconomic arguments to draw in support from Labour and Lib Dem voters (EFTA as a stepping stone to EU membership, perhaps?).

                Likewise, in Northern Ireland, the worst mistake nationalists could make at the present time would be to regard a united Ireland poll as principally a political campaign. Rather, any all-island forum to consider the topic should solely comprise civic groupings, such as sporting organisations, business groupings, and cultural and religious bodies, lessening concerns through bottom-up debates.

                As for Wales, the growth in the Tory vote appears to have followed the English pattern, primarily in North Wales, but if Plaid is to follow the SNP blueprint, grassroot development at council and Senedd level seems the only option.
                How would pursuing indyref2 be "illegal"?

                Under all interpretations of international law the Scottish Parliament could declare independence if it wanted to, given that's self-determination



                Comment


                  #9
                  The US, for example, has no constitutional way for a state to secede. My understanding is that if one tried it, it's only hope would be to get the rest of the world to recognize it and, somehow, get the rest of the country to decide it would rather accept it and have proper foreign relations with it rather than start a war over it. But the federal government could do a lot to stop a referendum from even taking place and most of the rest of the world would rather not have a bad relationship with the rest of the US in order to recognize the Republic of California or Texas or Vermont. So it's not likely to happen. Besides, given our current political situation, a war could break out., the economics of it don't really make sense, even for Texas or California, and there doesn't seem to be much unity among the people in those states calling for secession. Some want it to create a socialist eco paradise while others want a technocratic authoritarian libertarian dystopia. They're not likely to be able to offer a cohesive vision that normal people would vote for under those circumstances.

                  But in Scotland's case, it could be recognized by the one power that matters, the EU, and EU membership offers a fairly clear vision of what post Scotxit will look like. Westminster could try to stop a referendum from happening at all, I suppose, and it could get violent. But that would ultimately backfire on them because it would just increase the popularity of independence.

                  What will happen with NI? Is the idea that NI could become an independent country in the EU and then, someday, join the rest of Ireland? Or would it somehow just vote to be part of Ireland?

                  I recall a guy I knew from Cork telling me about 25 years ago that the best hope for peace in NI was for everyone to be in the EU and then all their religious differences and what not just wouldn't really matter. Maybe there was something to that.
                  Last edited by Hot Pepsi; 13-12-2019, 16:39.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Some of this has been covered on the GE thread but the English settlements in picture postcard bits of Wales will probably always prevent a majority on a referendum.

                    However, Plaid have a chance with a Senedd election in 2021. They need to focus on winning a majority in that and using their mandate to just declare independence.

                    Can they win a majority? Probably not. They don't have an urban presence or an answer to what to do with benefit culture post industrial deprivation.

                    Thing is Wales is much less monolithic than outsiders realise. It exists in time zones. In the cities it's the 21St century, in the big towns it's the 1990s, in the Valleys and urban decay north it's the 1980s still, in the bucolic West it's the 1950s, and fuck knows what year the Saes Llwyd in Pembrokeshire think it is, but they think Britain still has an Empire. How can a party of Wales represent all those people? The digital citadels, the analog hinterland, and the horse powered countryside.

                    Maybe if they went for truly radical proposals instead of just whining that Labour are crap. They need more political nous - at least get your token Muslim woman in a niqab to scrub her antisemitic tweets before you air your advert with her in. That's basic these days and they fucking missed it.

                    There are arguments they can use - capture the Leave Voters by.promoting the idea of leaving an oppressive bossy Union. "We've done it once!" that sort of thing. There has always been a tendency for Welsh people to think they can't manage on their own (a learned dependency) but that argument doesn't hold water any more. Seriously how could we fuck up any worse than getting fucked by Westminster? Welsh Labour is Welsh in name only. It's an English party in Wales and will always answer to England. Wales needs it's own party etc etc

                    Comment


                      #11
                      There is no single question of international law as to which "all interpretations" agree.

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                        #12
                        As Richard Rorty said, "Truth is whatever your colleagues let you get away with."

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                          #13
                          I'm going to start a party to make Lancashire secede and become an indepedent state like Slovenia. I'm not joking.

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                            #14
                            Sounds like a good idea.

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post
                              Sounds like a good idea.
                              I still want to re-establish the kingdom of Northumbria from the Humber to the Forth under the Norwegian crown
                              and then declare a republic.


                              I'm not joking either.


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                                #16
                                Get yer hands off Lothian pal.

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                                  #17
                                  You can have the Tory cunts in Berwickshire but.

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                                    #18
                                    Don't give the Welsh ideas about Cumbria, Strathclyde, Rheged ...

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                                      #19
                                      Govan's never going back, baby.

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                                        #20
                                        As for the illegal question, without permission from Westminster, a repeat of Catalonia could technically occur, but if the pro-indy Holyrood majority is maintained at the next election, then the moral case for a referendum would be undeniable.
                                        ​​

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                                          #21
                                          Johnson has no concern for morals. If it strengthens his majority he’ll send the troops in.

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                                            #22
                                            I think things will get very heated in Scotland very quickly. If there’s an occupation or civil disobedience and why wouldn’t there be ? How will the police react?

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                                              #23
                                              And entire country

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                                                #24
                                                Ireland was pretty quiet in 1910.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Is that the comparator, though?

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