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    #26
    Well, indeed. But the point is he's at least claiming that currently on the road vehicle hardware with presumably near-final software (granted the AI training is ongoing) will be autonomous capable* in less than a month. So I argue that Autopilot's (and Smart Summon's) current problems are relevant to claims regarding autonomy.

    * To be fair to Musk, he doesn't say the cars should actually be driven autonomously until mid-2020, though that is still an absurdly short timescale given the demonstrable limitations of Tesla's (or even Waymo's!) capabilities.

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      #27
      Elon Musk's considerable achievements would shine so much brighter if he'd just shut up a lot more.

      And that's a really ugly truck that [bold prediction] bears little resemblance to what will eventually come to market.

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        #28
        I thought you'd have loved it

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          #29
          Yeah, I totally understand that. And I absolutely love the DeLorean, with which it's frequently being compared. But it's just...ugh...I dunno. It's a design idea, but an incomplete one.

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            #30
            I drive 30,000+ miles per year and I would absolutely love it if all human drivers were eradicated.

            People have absolutely no idea of the risks they take when they're behind the wheel, I'm sometimes amazed that anyone gets home alive, I ,for one, welcome our robot car overlords. I can't wait to be able to jump in some sort of pod and either sleep, work or watch Netflix all the way to my destination.

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              #31
              Originally posted by tracteurgarçon View Post
              I drive 30,000+ miles per year and I would absolutely love it if all human drivers were eradicated.

              That bad, eh!

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                #32
                Self driving cars would surely be a lot safer if they didn't have to deal with human drivers, and only need to deal with other predictable robot cars. I'm looking forward to the time when human drivers are banned.

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                  #33
                  Anyone see that mile-long lineup of Teslas outside the quick-charging stations in San Luis Obispo this weekend? Talk about supply that needs to catch up with demand.

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                    #34
                    I wasn't in San Luis Obispo this weekend, sorry.

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                      #35
                      My niece (who attends uni there) drove down from Oakland yesterday.

                      Not in a Tesla

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                        #36
                        Did she see that mile-long lineup of Teslas outside the quick-charging stations this weekend?

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                          #37
                          Originally posted by WOM View Post
                          Anyone see that mile-long lineup of Teslas outside the quick-charging stations in San Luis Obispo this weekend? Talk about supply that needs to catch up with demand.
                          Slightly off the original premise, but once electric cars have a range of 350-400 miles, a charging time that enables the driver to have a piss and grab a cup of coffee, say twenty minutes, and cost not much more than a similar conventional fuel car we'll surely reach the tipping point. When they start arriving on the second hand market no going back. Actual physical charging points will be the problem, how to charge your car when you can't park outside your house.

                          And lorries, at six miles to the gallon and hauling forty tonnes they're going to need a shit load of batteries, and the associated weight that brings.

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                            #38
                            Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                            I wasn't in San Luis Obispo this weekend, sorry.
                            You should be sorry. It's warm and sunny, with blue skies and people enjoying themsel....wait, never mind.

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                              #39
                              Actually, it was probably pretty rainy over the weekend, with a relatively cold storm pushing through on Saturday. Ton Ton might have quite liked it.

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                                #40
                                Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                                Did she see that mile-long lineup of Teslas outside the quick-charging stations this weekend?
                                No, as a matter of fact she did not

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                                  #41
                                  Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                  Actually, it was probably pretty rainy over the weekend, with a relatively cold storm pushing through on Saturday. Ton Ton might have quite liked it.
                                  If you start getting gusts of bitterness and sarcasm, he'll never leave....

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                                    #42
                                    Our new hatch has a few of the clever tricks. It keeps a set distance, brakes autonomously, alerts you to lane drift etc. The hardest thing is learning to trust the car. Muscle memory has me wanting to brake for myself. Once I am completely used to it, I will join the campaign for dedicated lanes to avoid the lane-weaving tailgating riff-raff who drive older models.

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                                      #43
                                      Every time you do a captcha asking you to distinguish the street lights or other vehicles in the images you’re shown you are providing data to help autonomous vehicles

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                                        #44
                                        Originally posted by Greenlander View Post

                                        Slightly off the original premise, but once electric cars have a range of 350-400 miles, a charging time that enables the driver to have a piss and grab a cup of coffee, say twenty minutes, and cost not much more than a similar conventional fuel car we'll surely reach the tipping point. When they start arriving on the second hand market no going back. Actual physical charging points will be the problem, how to charge your car when you can't park outside your house.

                                        And lorries, at six miles to the gallon and hauling forty tonnes they're going to need a shit load of batteries, and the associated weight that brings.
                                        It's the parking outside your house is the issue isn't it? The Tesla model 3 does about 250 miles. (The asterisk on this one is huge) For most people the number of days that you drive more than 250 miles are few and far between. If you can charge up your battery at home over night, then you may not have to visit one of these charging stations very often. I have a neighbour with a four year old Nissan leaf, and she has to use a charger when she goes to Dublin the odd time, but there are no 200 mile journeys in her life. (though somewhere above 100 miles would probably empty her battery) however America is an entirely different kettle of fish altogether. It's a mere 120 times the size of Ireland, and while you might be a city mouse all year round, you might drive 1500 miles for Thanksgiving, because you can't handle the airports.

                                        My sister's significant other is a computer programmer, who likes to slowly restore old cars in his spare time, so he's a bit of a petrol head, but he has an electric Golf and is very happy with it. t'd take him very seriously when he said that to all intents and purposes Electric cars capable of meeting the needs of most people are already here. and it already it makes an awful lot more financial sense over the four or five years he plans to own the car, to buy an electric car. The up front hit is big, but it's a hell of a lot cheaper to run. but If you're buying a car via finance, and the cost of the car is a monthly bill, then the difference becomes immediately obvious.

                                        I can see a number of issues coming down the line very quickly though. An awful lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Electrical cars are inherently far less complex than petrol cars, and have far fewer parts, and as such are far more suited for robotic manufacture. An electric car has far fewer parts to begin with on the basis of engine and drive-train, gear box etc, but the big drive is to push the rest of the number of parts down further. A lot of bits that involve humans on the car assembly line revolve around the rather fiddly process of fitting electrical harnesses to the car. The typical car has close on a mile of wires in it. Hybrid and earlier electric cars had considerably more. THe Tesla Model S and X and Toyota prius have about 3 km of wires in them. Then the Tesla model 3 has 1.5 km. The next one will have 100 metres of wire in rigid harnesses that a robot can fit. That substantially reduces the amount of time it takes to manufacture each individual car, and really pushes down the cost in terms of material, and labour.

                                        WOM might expect that tesla truck to change a lot before sale, but I wouldn't be so sure. There's a lot of different things that go into making something that hideous (though in truth it's no more hideous than er (don't say honda ridgeline, don't say honda ridgeline ) The Ridge hondaline. The first thing is that an electric pickup has to be very aerodynamic unless it's going to be mostly made of batteries. It's relatively easy to find a drag co-efficient for cars. It's a bit trickier for pickup trucks. I suspect there's a reason for that. There's no reason for it to look like a conventional truck, because it doesn't have a physically massive engine block in the front. So it can look like anything. It just needs to have four wheels and a cabin and a bed in the back for carrying things around in.

                                        So it has to have a sleek front, and a sloping cover over the bed. Also the shape lets them build the frame like an aeroplane. which involves far fewer manufacturing stages, and really saves on weight.which goes back to the tyranny of lithium Ion battery power density. This thing doesn't have to appeal to everyone. it only needs to appeal to a small segment of the inexplicably enormous American pick up truck market to be successful, but it also needs to get across the idea that electric pickup trucks are now a thing even if you don't wind up buying a tesla. Even if they are not very good at towing things. The Drag involved in towing a trailer massively increases the power required, and drains the battery very quickly.

                                        The most compelling argument I heard against it is is that there's an awful lot of people who drive pick up trucks who are intensely practical, don't care what the thing looks like, but essentially don't want to be seen driving around in an attention-mobile, and having all the neighbours whispering that they've got notions above their station. life in rural communities is the same the world over, and only changes slowly.

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                                          #45
                                          Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
                                          I can see a number of issues coming down the line very quickly though. An awful lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Electrical cars are inherently far less complex than petrol cars, and have far fewer parts, and as such are far more suited for robotic manufacture.
                                          Except the fully automated assembly line never happened, including at Tesla. It will happen at some point in the future, but we're not there yet.

                                          Lorry drivers will be the first to lose their jobs. The first autonomous vehicles (whenever they arrive) will be trucks on the motorways.

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                                            #46
                                            Indeed. And even if mandated to run at reduced speeds, will still be able to run 24/7 and even load and unload automatically.

                                            As for EVs, it's incredible how few parts are in them compared to IC engines. Hell, the transmission alone has hundreds of niggly little parts that will no longer need to be made, assembled, lubricated, repaired, etc.

                                            And the Ridgeline is a thing of beauty. The first edition...not this new thing.

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                                              #47
                                              Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post


                                              The most compelling argument I heard against it is is that there's an awful lot of people who drive pick up trucks who are intensely practical, don't care what the thing looks like, but essentially don't want to be seen driving around in an attention-mobile...
                                              You've obviously not encountered half the people who own trucks in the US. A vast number of US trucks are performative, both in terms of size and stupidity, and in terms of what they symbolise. They're often not used for the practical purposes that trucks are designed for. They're used to state "We are Middle America Real Men"; but only actually used for hauling stuff once every few months.

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                                                #48
                                                I think "half" underestimates their number, too

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                                                  #49
                                                  I've always assumed that the thing that will change travel distance of electric cars is when batteries become removable: if there are "filling stations" where you pop in, and the battery is automatically popped out, and a fresh one popped in, in the same time that it takes to put 15 gallons of petrol in your car now, then the question of how long it takes to charge is removed and the question of range is basically removed. Of course, that requires some sort of universal standard, which will be a pain in the arse to get to.

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                                                    #50
                                                    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post

                                                    You've obviously not encountered half the people who own trucks in the US. A vast number of US trucks are performative, both in terms of size and stupidity, and in terms of what they symbolise. They're often not used for the practical purposes that trucks are designed for. They're used to state "We are Middle America Real Men"; but only actually used for hauling stuff once every few months.
                                                    True.

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