Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bolivia

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    I can't read that because paywall, *but*...this isn't new in the sense the CEPR was making more or less the same points two months ago. I don;t know what this one says, but the two different interpretations in part hinged on which districts were still to report at the time of the interruption of the count (CEPR said they were mostly rural and hence very pro-Morales, so no surprise numbers higher, OAS said the still-to-come districts included La Paz and (IIRC) Cochabamba, which are pretty urban, never saw either side try to resolve that discrepancy, would be interesting if this report did, because that has a major impact on you interpret the numbers.

    *Also*, if you read the investigation report, the heart of the OAS claim about fraud was not a statistical claim at all, but a series of claims about poorly-handled ballot boxes, loads of problems with ballot chains of custody, electronic voting reports being suddenly diverted to an unknown server before being counted, etc etc. It was a pretty damning series of allegations. Arguing over two different statistical interpretations doesn't really absolve anyone of interference with the ballots. (and of course the thing about the mystery server is you can't prove that votes were manipulated, only that someone put themselves in a position to manipulate them)

    I mean, it seems to me you could build a pretty plausible case for both sides. Here's a scenario that fits the known facts (not saying it;s what happened, just that it is consistent with data presented by both sides):

    1) Evo's people *really* wanted to win on the first ballot because they didn't think they would get 50% on the second (his losing the referendum on an extra term being a pretty good barometer)
    2) Polls and early results showed he was *really* close to that 10%. But too close to be sure.
    3) The Evo camp swings into action, delays count so it can put itself in a position to tamper if need be (hence the issues with chain of custody, strange changes in servers, etc
    4) They look at the raw data. Actually, they are over 10%! perfecto, no need to tamper. The count continues. Evo declared the victor.

    Would that have been a stolen election? No. Would that reveal malevolent intent on the part of Evo's team? Yes. Enough to disqualify the result? Eye of the beholder, I guess.





    Comment


      Sounds pretty plausible.

      Comment


        You can read the two reports side-by-side. The MIT report is here, and OAS final report is here (the stuff specifically about the discontinuity in the vote counts starts on page 86). Seems to me both sides make quite plausible arguments, but there are clearly some definitional differences in how they look at the count and I don;t understand enough about Bolivian election procedures to figure out which one is more plausible. The OAS report is significantly more detailed, and seems at one point to respond directly to the points the MIT pair are making (not because they are psychic, but because CEPR had earlier made the exact same arguments), but I can't tell if it is definitive or not.

        Comment


          https://twitter.com/Vinncent/status/1269782465767518215?s=20

          Comment


            Blog about the Bolivian election

            The elections were scheduled for 3 May, but A?ez postponed them on the pretext of the pandemic. Assuming they go forward as scheduled on 6 September, the MAS candidate, Luis Arce, polling at 33 per cent in the most recent survey, is likely to win, perhaps even in the first round, just as Morales won in the first round last October. Allegations of electoral fraud have since been shown to be false, but they served their purpose, which was to remove Morales from power. If MASwins again in the first round, the Bolivian right will be exposed not only as racist, corrupt and violent, but also as divided and inept.

            Comment


              Of course everyone has now forgotten about the Santa Cruz secession attempt, which were the first manoeuvres by the Bolivian right:

              https://nacla.org/article/bolivia%27...atist-movement
              Last edited by Diable Rouge; 04-07-2020, 16:04.

              Comment


                So Elon Musk appears to have admitted it was a Lithium coup

                https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1287030094100418562?s=20

                (tweet posted calmly as most efficient way of linking to twitter exchange and commentary)

                meanwhile the golpistas have decided against having elections- again

                https://twitter.com/RadEmpanada/status/1286399704826368000?s=20

                Comment


                  https://twitter.com/ChuyForCongress/status/1301939581764464642?s=20

                  Comment


                    Elections today

                    https://twitter.com/ovargas52/status/1317882689215778819?s=21

                    Comment


                      Little bit worrying

                      https://twitter.com/camilatelesur/status/1317612792413814787?s=21

                      Comment


                        Looks very much as if Arce's won with over 50% of the vote, and A?ez Chavez, surprisingly, has written something on Twitter which looks very much like a concession.

                        https://twitter.com/JeanineAnez/status/1318048552191483904

                        Translation: 'We don't yet have an official count, but according to our numbers Mr Arce and Mr Choquehuanca have won the election. I congratulate the winners and ask them to govern with their minds on Bolivia and on democracy.'

                        Obviously the replies are full of people urging her not to concede or hand over power.

                        Comment


                          Victory

                          https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1318231954756718592?s=20

                          Comment


                            there isn't much good news these days

                            so indulge me

                            https://twitter.com/dfertl/status/1318269995965702144?s=20

                            Comment


                              This piece on the Bolivian elite is just mind boggling

                              https://twitter.com/OnadaExpansiva/status/1319151981940903936?s=20





                              Oh and if you were ever in any doubt that Tim Shitman is both a cunt and an ignoramus

                              https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1319594999013609474?s=20

                              Comment


                                New York Times on form tonight

                                you'd have thought they would now have a better handle on right wing thugs who try and steal elections

                                https://twitter.com/ejhchess/status/1325882427768762368?s=20

                                Comment


                                  Been a while since an otf twitter link told me I was blocked.

                                  Comment


                                    Former member of the forum. Chess player. Cause of the biggest upheaval in otf (or whatever it was called then) history

                                    Comment


                                      Before even my time

                                      Comment


                                        Must have been in God's own time so, as the saying goes.

                                        Comment


                                          Before my time on here. He was an early editor of Oxford United fanzines, but not the much missed boris.

                                          Comment


                                            Though not before TonTon's time

                                            Comment


                                              had no idea (before my time too)- someone tweeted him onto my timeline , anyway Morales is coming home

                                              https://twitter.com/evoespueblo/status/1325841269281726465?s=20

                                              And this was the article that was being criticised


                                              https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1325868311482163202?s=20

                                              i can't imagine you'd be in disagreement with the criticisms tonTon

                                              in particular
                                              Everybody is saying what a disgraceful piece this is, and you can pick your own lowest point - I'll go for "around 40 people died in the social unrest that followed Mr. Morales’s bid for a fourth term. The caretaker government that replaced him did little to heal the divisions."

                                              Comment


                                                https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1389633131234439177

                                                Comment

                                                Working...
                                                X