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General Election, December 2019

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    Satire in its last death rattle

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tel...kate-hoey/amp/


    Kate Hoey denounces John McDonnell as "nasty and devious"

    Comment


      Didn't go further after the paywall intervened.

      Comment


        Fair enough.

        I also only saw the headline, tbh.

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          Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post

          So, how to campaign? Not much point campaigning in my local area as I'd be preaching to the converted. Harpenden is unhelpfully 16 miles away with no public transport and I don't have a car yet. There seems to be one conservative councillor elected on the other side of Hitchin. Perhaps I can start there.
          Try this
          (assuming you want to campaign for Labour)

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            also if you register with momentum they have all kinds of tasks that can be done from home. texting calling researching

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              The stuff from home might be more feasible. The link TonTon posted asked me to campaign in Bedford, Watford or Hendon, which are even less likely for me to get to than Harpenden.

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                That is pretty dumb (although the Green Party aren't helping by getting suckered into a pact with the Lib Dems and abetting their project of helping get the tories elected


                Maybe the Green leadership has been suckered. I suspect there'll be a benefit to us (if not immediately) but little directly to the Tories in this election

                Wonder how Green party supporters and activists feel about Swinson's Jack D. Ripper act the other day
                I've long thought she was a wrong 'un but have been surprised by her aggressive campaign

                But it's one thing to stand, quite another to actually make an effort, and quite another to be someone who is actively involved as that effort


                6 Labour activists in Brighton Pavilion backing a paper candidate. What's the problem?

                but it feels like there's a particularly immediate and urgent need to stop Johnson


                Labour needed an immediate and urgent willingness not to split the anti-Johnson vote. The paper campaign above needed to be done across the country

                An easy enough call when the greens are allied with a party working to bring about a tory majority, i'd have said


                I'm very disappointed with the Greens making a pact with the LDs. I can see why they've done it if their overriding priority is stop Johnson/Brexit, but they'll find out they've been lied to if Swinson gets a sniff of a cabinet seat with Mr Porky


                The overriding priority is to make the Climate Debate top priority.

                I can imagine the Green/Lib Dem/Plaid pact as being bitterly regretted by the two minor parties in that arrangement. Especially now Swinson has revealed herself as a craven Tory enabler


                Aye, there were plenty regretting as soon as it was suggested. But without being too cynical if the result is another Green MP because the LibDems didn't stand in Bristol West, that's a small benefit

                They are utter arsewipes for not foreseeing that


                They did foresee it. Of course I realise that you think they/ we are utter arsewipes anyway...


                Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 23-11-2019, 13:03.

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                  Momentum is good. and if you are a Labour Party member they have a good remote calling software too.

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                    I don't quite follow the argument that says "they did foresee it, but the important thing is to get the climate to the top of the agenda, so we allied ourselves to fracker Swinson".

                    I voted Green in the Euros this year, and have done so in most elections recently. I can't vote for a party allied to the Liberals, so at the moment I'm thinking I may well not vote this time.

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                      Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                      The link TonTon posted asked me to campaign in Bedford, Watford or Hendon, which are even less likely for me to get to than Harpenden.
                      I don't really know these places, except some of them are on the Thameslink right? Watford's being the anomaly.

                      did think it might be difficult to find somewhere local enough to do in-person stuff though yeah.

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                        Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                        I don't quite follow the argument that says "they did foresee it, but the important thing is to get the climate to the top of the agenda, so we allied ourselves to fracker Swinson"
                        Of course it's messy and anyway unrealistic (as a couple of extra Green MPs won't in themselves change that agenda). My point was that the Green leadership aren't so naive/ purist/ whatever that they didn't realise that this deal would be criticised both inside and outside the party, and provoke often exaggerated outrage.

                        On a small perhaps pedantic point: fine if you want to quote or paraphrase me, but please don't run it in the same line as something I didn't refer at all. Ta.

                        I voted Green in the Euros this year, and have done so in most elections recently. I can't vote for a party allied to the Liberals, so at the moment I'm thinking I may well not vote this time.
                        I understand that, fair enough.

                        I too have parties I wouldn't and haven't voted for- Sinn Fein, DUP in NI, Tories and UKIP/ Brexit. But if the LibDems and Tories were close and sharing 90% of the vote, I'd hold my nose etc.

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                          I genuinely don't understand what you're objecting to in the paraphrase, I'm afraid. In principle, that is - I wouldn't expect you to be happy about the contradiction's being pointed out.

                          Second part - you mean you'd vote Liberal to keep the Tories out? I wouldn't. Not as things stand, anyway, and I can't imagine doing so. Not in any circumstances I've lived through.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                            I genuinely don't understand what you're objecting to in the paraphrase, I'm afraid. In principle, that is
                            Only direct quotes in quotation marks please- just a little thing but I'm a stickler

                            I wouldn't expect you to be happy about the contradictions being pointed out
                            I'm relaxed about it really. I didn't support the LibDem deal and expected it to be criticised as I said. More importantly I've always recognised the contradictions you mention

                            Second part - you mean you'd vote Liberal to keep the Tories out? I wouldn't. Not as things stand, anyway, and I can't imagine doing so. Not in any circumstances I've lived through.
                            Potentially, yes. FPTP's a terrible system and I'd back them rather than the Tories.

                            In circumstances I've lived through I have often thought seriously about voting for parties I really don't like.

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                              This is interesting

                              [URL]https://twitter.com/opendemocracy/status/1198236004328427520?s=21[/URL]

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                                And this offers a smidgen of hope

                                [URL]https://twitter.com/alicebell/status/1198217662351982592?s=21[/URL]

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                                  It's not really a paraphrase, is it? Technically, I mean. What's the word for that? Or phrase?

                                  Hmmm. Tricky.

                                  Anyway, I'm pretty much exactly as likely to vote Liberal as I am to vote Tory, as far as I can tell. Which means never, in any circumstances I can imagine coming about. It's not that I really don't like them, it's that they're tories in a different coat.

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                                    I could deal with an honest centrist broker that honours its legacy as the party of Keynes. And they have a few things they are traditionally better than Labour at, like drug law reforms. But this transparently anti-Labour pro-austerity rabble can fuck off, in my book.

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                                      Is anyone tracking current polling v polling last time?

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                                        Stats for lefties - on Twitter as Leftie Stats does occasionally

                                        What is notable about the 2017 campaign is that, whilst Labour’s support rose significantly over the course of the campaign (+10pts) it never rose by more than 3pts (on average) in any particular week. Indeed, aside from the week of 15-21 May 2017, Labour’s support never rose by more than 2pts.

                                        Therefore, even if we are on course for another 2017-style Labour resurgence, we should not expect to see significant changes in any particular week. In fact, Labour’s gains in the week of 11th-17th November (+1pt) are exactly what we should be expecting to see if Labour’s 2017 gains are being repeated.

                                        Summary

                                        In short, Labour is gaining in the polls every week. It has gained 6pts in just three weeks, it is performing just as well as it did at this point in 2017, and it is winning back Remainers at the speed of light.

                                        All in all, last week went okay. The Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in seats won by the Tories in 2017 unsurprisingly led to an increase in the Tories’ vote share, but Labour’s vote has also increased. This week will see the publication of the 2019 manifesto and the Leaders’ debates, and all we need this week to continue on the 2017 trajectory is a gain of 1pt – and if the manifesto doesn’t deliver at least a 1pt increase in Labour’s vote share, I will be amazed.

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                                          Ta. I might nick some of those numbers and play with them myself.

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                                            worth following on twitter- @leftiestats.

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                                              Electoral Calculus weekly snapshot:

                                              21 Nov Labour 29.6%

                                              14 Nov 29.0%

                                              7 Nov 27.2%

                                              31 Oct 25.3%

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                                                That's a very similar pattern to the Stats for Lefties one. So Labour behind 2017, growing but not as fast. At this stage.

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                                                  The more that I read about this, the more that I am convinced that the key will be turnout and whether the voting pool reflects the same (historically-based) demographics that the pollsters are using (particularly w/r/t age and education).

                                                  Labour needs young people to register and vote, and the stats on registration have been decent.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                                                    I genuinely don't understand what you're objecting to in the paraphrase, I'm afraid. In principle, that is - I wouldn't expect you to be happy about the contradiction's being pointed out.

                                                    Second part - you mean you'd vote Liberal to keep the Tories out? I wouldn't. Not as things stand, anyway, and I can't imagine doing so. Not in any circumstances I've lived through.
                                                    I wouldn't.

                                                    I'd no more vote for a Liberal candidate in Sheffield than I'd vote Labour in a council election

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