Labour rejects concept of Social mobility

[Snake Plissken]

*looks at thread title and OP*

*looks at current discussion *

Yup. Same as always.

[johnr]

Ugh, jesus. Look. It's fucking 2019. and labour is still looking to negotiate a soft brexit on the basis of a Unicorn agreement. It's time to put that slab of vegan gammon in a home, and stop him from sabotaging opposition to brexit. Even if Labour finally decide to support a second referendum, they will have wasted over three fucking years, where they kept pretending that a good brexit was possible, rather than pointing out that it is going to kill 10 times as many people as austerity.

I'll mention this to you one more time TAB, as I know you don't follow UK politics that closely: if Labour had have taken that position 'over three fucking years' ago, May would have had us out of the EU months ago, and would also put all sorts of other, terrible, legislation in place.

By the way, how long will Brexit take to kill the (at least) 1,300,000 people that you predict? Is that in the first year from the 31st October? Or over a five-year period? 10?

[anton pulisov]

Labour gained loads of seats in 2017 on the back of being backed as the "not Tory party" by much of the anti-Brexit electorate. They won in Kensington. They also might have, due to their Brexit vagueness, held on to a few anti-EU working class votes in marginal seats in 2017. Kensington and the North. It was a once-off voting coalition.

However, it is now 2019, 2017 was two years ago and the vagueness trick has worn off. Labour got pummelled at the European elections in 2019 because the anti-Brexit electorate has lost patience with Labour's dithering, much as how the Brexit electorate has lost patience with the Tory failure to deliver on Brexit.

So yeah, I do hope Labour get elected and are able to implement a very nice Democratic Socialist agenda, but a lot of voters at the moment are very concerned about the house burning down.

[Nefertiti2]

the European election have been the forum where people who care about Europe vote. That was how UKIp built their base. The Brexit party and the Lib Dems did well in 2019. I don't think that will be repeated in general election, especially as there will be time to mobilise Labour activists for a ground game the like of which we won't have seen. I think people will turn out in tens of thousands to stop Boris Johnson. I know I will. .

[Lucy Waterman]

You can understand why worried people would hope for evidence beyond your instinct though. Evidence like the Labour vote not halving in a by election, for example.

[Nefertiti2]

Usually the turn out drops by about 25% in a by election. aand large swings are by no-means uncommon

In 2003 for example in Brent the Labour vote fell from 18000 to 7000.

Labour vote dropped by 17 percent. The Conservatives by 25 per cent.

In Peterborough Labour held a marginal, In Brent they lost a safe seat.

[Lucy Waterman]

Sure, but in 2003 Labour were not supposefly heading towards a paradigm shift election victory. They were an incumbent government in the middle of a controversial war. Check the results heading into 79 and 97. Check the results heading into 2010, even. Now all this may not signify anything malign, but it doesn’t signify anything good.

[Nefertiti2]

in 1999 Labour narrowly held a safe seat losing 14000 (2/3rd of their votes )

Peterborough was Tory since 2005- and has only been Labour for 10 years in the last 40. Factor in the previous Labour MP going to prison and it's not as a bad result as you make out. Losing would have been a disaster..

[Lucy Waterman]

Ok but 1999 is also an incumbency midterm. Different to 97, 79 and 2010. As I said, it’s not necessarily a bad result - we don’t know. What we do know is it’s just not an encouraging one for a party hoping to win at least 70 seats.

[Nefertiti2]

fair enough. But Labour overall percentage of the vote in 2015 was 40 percent- higher than in every election since 2001. So if the Conservatives lose more votes than Labour it still probably looks quite promising. And I think the defeat of the Brexit party, and the new policies like the one that started this thread, and above all the existence of an active membership with a readiness to campaign will all count in favour,. I hope so...

[anton pulisov]

With FPTP and the Brexit party splintering the Tory vote, it's possible that Labour could have a huge majority in the Commons but with a reduced percentage of the vote nationwide.

The horror scenario, which is not as remote as Corbyn might think it is, is the vote being splintered across the board, with 20% of the vote being enough to get seats with FPTP, and the Brexit party emerging as the party closest to 20%.

It would be somewhat ironic if FPTP ultimately ends up killing off both Labour and the Tories, considering that they've relied on it for so long.

[Lucy Waterman]

It has some other horrific implications. I live in a coastal seat with a massive Tory majority and Remainer MO. Do I end up tactically voting for him to keep the fash out?

[Lucy Waterman]

fair enough. But Labour overall percentage of the vote in 2015 was 40 percent- higher than in every election since 2001. So if the Conservatives lose more votes than Labour it still probably looks quite promising. And I think the defeat of the Brexit party, and the new policies like the one that started this thread, and above all the existence of an active membership with a readiness to campaign will all count in favour,. I hope so...

Fair enough Nef, thanks for thoughtful reply.

[Diable Rouge]

It has some other horrific implications. I live in a coastal seat with a massive Tory majority and Remainer MO. Do I end up tactically voting for him to keep the fash out?

I think you're safe enough - if they can't win a seat that was 61% Leave on a 48% turnout, they're only likely to win constituencies such as Boston when faced with the higher voting levels of a GE.

[Nefertiti2]

I think you're safe enough - if they can't win a seat that was 61% Leave on a 48% turnout, they're only likely to win constituencies such as Boston when faced with the higher voting levels of a GE.

i'm not sure that's true. If there was a large Pro Brexit Tory vote then it's possible they will lose a lot to the Brexit party- and the Remainer Tories may peel off to the Lib Dems (sorry Lucy)

[Nocturnal Submission]

It's impossible to second guess British politics these days, of course, but if we had a pre-Brexit GE anytime soon and the Brexit Party were still a force, I can't see them standing against pro-Brexit sitting MPs. They'd target Leave-voung constituencies with Remain MPs, I'd have thought, which screws up the current predictions.

[San Bernardhinault]

It's impossible to second guess British politics these days, of course, but if we had a pre-Brexit GE anytime soon and the Brexit Party were still a force, I can't see them standing against pro-Brexit sitting MPs. They'd target Leave-voung constituencies with Remain MPs, I'd have thought, which screws up the current predictions.

I disagree. I think Farage has a big enough ego. He wants power and publicity. With current BP polling, he'll be thinking that he has a chance of having the largest party in parliament if he stands against Tories in leavey seats. There'll be some mealy mouthed excuse for why the pro-Brexit MPs he's standing against aren't Brexity enough. Anyone who campaigned for Remain initially; anyone who ever voted for May's deal; etc... no matter what they say now, they won't be pure enough and he'll have an excuse to stand candidates against them. There might be 40 Tory MPs who he won't stand against and that will be his sop to the idea that he's not sabotaging real, true Brexit Believer MPs.

[Lucy Waterman]

Remainer MP not MO. I’d assume the constituency I live in would be a top Brexit Party target.

[Lucy Waterman]

During the Euros, I got Brexit Party mailshots through the door three times a week.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I disagree. I think Farage has a big enough ego. He wants power and publicity. With current BP polling, he'll be thinking that he has a chance of having the largest party in parliament if he stands against Tories in leavey seats. There'll be some mealy mouthed excuse for why the pro-Brexit MPs he's standing against aren't Brexity enough. Anyone who campaigned for Remain initially; anyone who ever voted for May's deal; etc... no matter what they say now, they won't be pure enough and he'll have an excuse to stand candidates against them. There might be 40 Tory MPs who he won't stand against and that will be his sop to the idea that he's not sabotaging real, true Brexit Believer MPs.

Anything is possible, but I think that the European Parliament elections might be a high water mark for the BP, a glorified opinion poll with little name recognition amongst sitting MEPs. I think that they would have little chance of winning a traditional Tory seat with a longstanding Leave MP.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Where are you, Lucy?

[Lucy Waterman]

Rather not say - Kent coast, nearly adjacent to Thanet. Just wary of people who know me putting pieces together

[Nocturnal Submission]

Fair enough.

From your description of the constituency you could well be getting a lot more BP literature at the next election but I really don't think that the majority of us will.

[Patrick Thistle]

So what are you if you don't want to respect the referendum ?

Smarter than 52% of the voters were in 2016?

[Nefertiti2]

Don't be a clown