Peterborough by-election

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Congratulations to Labour on the victory. That was distressingly close to a win for the truth-denying xenophobic scum. If I lived in the constituency I think I'd have probably voted tactically for Labour despite their dodginess on Brexit.

Anyway, the main thing I wanted to say was, bloody hell, that Scum party candidate. I mean, obviously I'd hate him for his party even if he had the appearance of a charming and benevolent man and a generally good character with just a Brexit blind spot (a vanishingly rare scenario no doubt), but Christ look at the state of him. He is a greedy buy-to-let shark who has made tens of millions from exploiting his tenants in shitty cupboard sized rooms, and boy does he look the part! His whole face just screams "utter malevolent c**t". Photo in the Peston piece linked below.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-07/...-peterborough/

[jwdd27]

I'm bemused by the way the Labour victory, in which they increased/maintained their majority, is being portrayed as "scraping home" on the news channels. Farage on the radio as I woke up, and on the TV when I got downstairs. And they lost.

The best Labour could do on Sky News was transport shadow Andy McDonald, speaking live from a Middlesbrough back street, and a door stepped Corbyn who was "on my way to Peterborough now".

[Guy Profumo]

Christ almighty.

What a humongous little turd.

[E10 Rifle]

Brexit Party giving it the full racist dog whistle on their post-defeat analysis: "All them Asians living 14 to a house block-voting Labour" stuff.

[Snake Plissken]

I thought Nigel had to leave UKIP because it was too racist?

[ursus arctos]

Those nasty racists keep following him and he has no idea why.

[Duncan Gardner]

I'm bemused by the way the Labour victory, in which they increased/maintained their majority, is being portrayed as "scraping home"

Their vote share fell significantly (from 48% to 31%). In General Elections, it's very unusual for a party to win any seat in England with less than 40%*. Of course that's because normally only 2 parties at most seriously contest any given seat. As against that the current national poll darlings fell to 12%. We don't know if there will be 3 or 4 parties challenging in such polls before a GE, and how that will affect FPTP results

* Southport, Thurrock and Sheffield Hallam alone in 2017

ps the racism E10 mentions is overt rather than dog-whistle surely?

[Eggchaser]

Some nice Twittering of Farage's retreat from Kabul as Brave Sir Robin from Monty Python and The Holy Grail.

[George C.]

Thank goodness for tactical voting. Some hope for the electorate then.

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Party giving it the full racist dog whistle on their post-defeat analysis: "All them Asians living 14 to a house block-voting Labour" stuff.

And as noted here before, British Asian voters were greater supporters of Brexit than the general population, so more fool Farage for alienating them.

[ursus arctos]

Wasn't that split by community, though?

With those of Indian heritage being the most enthusiastic (having been taken in by bad faith assurances of easing immigration from India)?

[johnr]

Thank goodness for tactical voting. Some hope for the electorate then.

As I mentioned on the other thread, I see no evidence of tactical voting in Peterborough.

[E10 Rifle]

British Asian voters were greater supporters of Brexit than the general population, so more fool Farage for alienating them.

Got some figures on that? And I agree with Ursus that "British Asian" is too big and broad a constituency to draw emphatic conclusions. The experiences and politics of people from, say, India, Bengali and Chinese backgrounds are not going to necessarily be that similar".

[Nocturnal Submission]

As I mentioned on the other thread, I see no evidence of tactical voting in Peterborough.

Me neither. Not a shred.

[George C.]

As I mentioned on the other thread, I see no evidence of tactical voting in Peterborough.

Not wishing to pick a fight, the Labour figures were certainly good but the LD's were putting up 'polls' via their own social media which claimed they were a 'close' second to the BP.

I reckon those potential voters then held their nose once they realised this was BS and only Labour could come close. Or better.

People on the ground tell me, the Greens campaign on the ground was virtually non existent for the same reasons. No Euros 'bounce' for them there either.

[George C.]

And as noted here before, British Asian voters were greater supporters of Brexit than the general population, so more fool Farage for alienating them.

Nah, that's crap. Given the far right fixation on Brexit. Those of the Asian diaspora who voted for it were mainly stupid or lied to. If not both.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Re the Lib Dem "polls" point above, I do as a LIb Dem member (since autumn 2016) occasionally get embarrassed by apparently dodgy claims about polling and the appropriate tactical voting approach in some situations. My embarrassment at the occasional dodgy overstated claim is rather limited by a moment's reflection that Lib Dems and their voters have for decades been thoroughly screwed by our fundamentally unfair FPTP system, which Labour and the Tories have jointly cynically defended and kept in place due to their sharing in its spoils.

[Lucy Waterman]

There is something to worry about though - more 2017 Labour voters chose not to vote for the party in Peterborough yesterday than did, for whatever reason. 12 and a half thousand of the former, to 10 and a half thousand of the latter. And the fact the latter were enough on this occasion shouldn’t allow Labour to relax.

I think that’s right anyway. My mental maths isn’t great.

[Duncan Gardner]

@EEG- not saying it's the case here but if Jo and co have been caught fibbing (not 'overstating') you should admit the error. Whataboutery on FPTP isn't enough

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

@EEG- not saying it's the case here but if Jo and co have been caught fibbing (not 'overstating') you should admit the error. Whataboutery on FPTP isn't enough

DG, I'm not in a position to "admit" anything. I didn't get involved in the Peterborough campaign and have absolutely no knowledge of whether the polling claims were made in good faith or not.

[Patrick Thistle]

In my constituency the Lib Dems always print polls in their literature saying they are the only party to come close to beating whoever the incumbent is and then trail in a distant fifth or whatever.

There's a reason they're also known as the Fib Dems.

[johnr]

Not wishing to pick a fight, the Labour figures were certainly good but the LD's were putting up 'polls' via their own social media which claimed they were a 'close' second to the BP.

I reckon those potential voters then held their nose once they realised this was BS and only Labour could come close. Or better.

People on the ground tell me, the Greens campaign on the ground was virtually non existent for the same reasons. No Euros 'bounce' for them there either.

Didn't take it as picking a fight George, just couldn't see any evidence - I read somewhere that 12% was around the average Lib Dem percentage since the war, so was going on that. Can't be bothered to look up the detail.

I agree with EEG that the Lib Dems have suffered from FPTP, unfairly.

I also agree with LW that Labour shouldn't relax. They should feel pleased though, with plenty more to do. I haven't seen too much in the press about the 500 or so that gott out the vote yesterday. Is this an unprecedented number?

[E10 Rifle]

By-election votes are usually lower than in General Elections, so this is quite a standard result. Everyone got fewer votes than in 2017. Basically, a Labour marginal (which was once a Tory stronghold) was transformed into, er, a Labour marginal, with an ever so slightly bigger majority.

LW is right that there are plenty of grounds for caution, and that it doesn't negate the need for a clearer Brexit policy etc, and Lisa Forbes clearly needs a lesson about clicking "like" on social media gibberish, but let's not pretend that predictions of a Brexit Party victory weren't widespread - among the Sensibles, the pundits and indeed among inveterate pessimists like me - – and that particular calamity didn't happen. Let's at least be relieved at that.

[Nefertiti2]

Worth also adding that the previous Labour MP was convicted of a serious criminal offence

[Guy Profumo]

Worth also adding that the previous Labour MP was convicted of a serious criminal offence

Parachuted in as a candidate by central office too, despite local candidates wanting to stand, IIRC?