Northern Ireland Election Results 2019

[Duncan Gardner]

No puns, no FPTP (nor FTP/ FTQ), no pointless rows about tactical voting. Just rank candidates in your preferred order, it's dead easy.

[Duncan Gardner]

Predictions

Swing of 1% Unionist to Nationalist overall since 2017 GE. Now Uni 48%, Nat 42%, Others 10%

Similarly, Belfast City Council now Nat 27 (+1), Uni 23 (-1), Oth 10

Green elected in Botanic

Shinners to see off breakaway Aontu ('Unity', anti Abortion)

Unionists to unite in 4 micro parties (6 if you count Tory and UKIP)

[Duncan Gardner]

Early results

BELFAST Oldpark- SDLP top poll, trebling his vote

BELFAST Botanic- Green top poll

BELFAST Collin- People Before Profit take seat from SDLP

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Predictions

Swing of 1% Unionist to Nationalist overall since 2017 GE. Now Uni 48%, Nat 42%, Others 10%

Similarly, Belfast City Council now Nat 27 (+1), Uni 23 (-1), Oth 10

Green elected in Botanic

Shinners to see off breakaway Aontu ('Unity', anti Abortion)

Unionists to unite in 4 micro parties (6 if you count Tory and UKIP)

There was a clip last night of three lads from the same class in St Malachi's in belfast who were all standing in the same ward. You could instantly spot the one who was standing for the SDLP (I recognised him from seeing him around TCD back in the day) and the one that was standing for Sinn Fein. It was written on their faces, but the one that was standing for the Green Party caught me out. I was wondering if he might have been Alliance, but no, it was the greens.

(I think the Sinn Fein guy was Pat Finnucane's son.)

what is the point of Aontu?

[Lang Spoon]

Peadar Toibin's ego needed a good home.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

He certainly seems hellbent on following Ruairi O'Bradaigh on the path into republican obscurity. Weren't Republican Sinn Fein, the Provos at prayer?

[Duncan Gardner]

BELFAST Castle should see the Nat gain from Uni. Finucane jr an for Parliament in 2017

[Diable Rouge]

UUP appear to be taking a right hammering based on early tallies, with pro-Brexit elements moving to DUP, and Remainers moving en masse to both the Alliance and Greens - always seemed rather pointless for them not to at least take an EEA approach.

[Diable Rouge]

Belfast Telegraph providing the best live updates.

[E10 Rifle]

Have the Greens benefited from a studenty vote in Botanic? (My sister lives in that ward, I think, though she was denied a vote cos her name wasn't on the register even though she'd been told it was)

[Duncan Gardner]

E10- I hear new registrations in Botanic are very numerous. Green Aine Grogan is very well known. Botanic includes the city centre plus much of area around the University.

Rasping Ginger vocalist Big Smitty also a strong possibility in Lisnasharragh (South-East, named after George Best's school fact fans)

[Diable Rouge]

Alliance after unexpectedly winning a seat in Derry, also aiming for success in Omagh.

[Diable Rouge]

NI percentage scores on the doors:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1124697318840729600

[Duncan Gardner]

The 3 amigos from St Malachi's all got in in Belfast Castle

[Duncan Gardner]

4 Greens on BCC now as Big Smitty storms home

[Diable Rouge]

Final scores likely to be:

DUP 122 (-8)
SF 105 (-)
UUP 75 (-13)
SDLP 59 (-7)
Alliance 53 (+21)
Independent 24 (+9)
Green 8 (+4)
TUV 6 (-7)
PBP 5 (+4)
PUP 3 (-1)
Cross-Community Labour 1 (+1)
Aontú 1 (+1, New)

So SF returned exactly as they were five years ago, with the three other major parties down, and the day belonging to the "Others".

[Duncan Gardner]

Belfast City Council

Nationalists 24 (-2)
Unionists 19 (-5)
Others 17 (+7) (Alliance 10, Green 4, PBP 3)

What do I know...

[Duncan Gardner]

I think DR's total has one too many DUP but misses the 6 TUV

[Duncan Gardner]

All 462 Councillors elected

Unionist 46%
Nationalist 37%
Others 17%

Detail to follow. Some identifications to be confirmed (if 1690 or 1916 referred, your otherness is unlikely)

[Duncan Gardner]

Unionists 212 (45.9%)

DUP 122
UUP 75
TUV 6
PUP 3
Ind 6

Nationalists 173 (37.4%)

SF 106
SDLP 58
Aontu 1
Ind 8

Others 77 (16.7%)

AP 53
GP 8
PBP 5
'Labour' 1
Ind 10

[Nocturnal Submission]

Are those percentages proportions of seats won or votes?

[Duncan Gardner]

Seats, Vote shares will be broadly similar. Unionist vote will be a bit lower than seat share

[Nocturnal Submission]

Ta.

[Duncan Gardner]

[Duncan Gardner]

Meanwhile in NI, both Colum Eastwood and Naomi Long will have realistic hopes to taking the final seat for SDLP or Alliance, respectively - surprisingly, SF voters seem more inclined to transfer to the latter, judging by social media

(DR's post above on the parallel Euro Elections Thread)

The Candidates:

Jim Allister, TUV
Martina Anderson, SF
Clare Bailey, Green
Amandeep Singh Bhogal, Conservative
Diane Dodds, DUP
Colum Eastwood, SDLP
Robert Hill, UKIP
Danny Kennedy, UUP
Naomi Long, Alliance
Neil Patrick McCann, Independent
Jane Morrice, (No description)

The Tory (who lives in my old SE London manor) and UKIP candidates will be eliminated in the first or second count. McCann is probably a publicity stunt for some local Remain campaign. Like Dylan's antihero, Morrice was semi-famous long ago, now likely on Desolation Row.

After early counts could go something like this. Note that

1 All figures percentages. The quota for election is 25% + 1

2 I have assumed that Alliance transfers will go roughly 30%/70% UUP/ SDLP. The former's campaign for the locals may skew that in the SDLP's favor

3 But if SDLP are knocked out before Alliance, it could look good for Big Naomi