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    The battle for Spain

    Sunday's Spanish General Election sees that country increasingly polarised, with castellaños moving to the right (partly in response to the Catalan crisis), leading to the rise of Vox and Ciudadanos further hardening their position, while the left will require a high turnout in both the Basque Country and Catalonia if Pedro Sanchez is to remain as Prime Minister. Though official polling has been banned since Monday, "illegal" surveys continue, and today's seat projections suggest both blocs will require backing from the Basque and Catalan parties to secure a majority:

    Right: 166 (PP 77, Ciudadanos 53, Vox 36)
    Left: 151 (PSOE 107, Podemos 44)
    Nationalists: 33 (Catalans 19, Basques 9, Valencians 3, Navarre 2)

    #2
    A Vox rally in Valencia:

    http://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1121495715908345856

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      #3
      So 176 for a majority? And it was the Catalan parties - ERC and PDeCAT - who were decisive in bringing down the previous government yeah?

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        #4
        Originally posted by TonTon View Post
        So 176 for a majority? And it was the Catalan parties - ERC and PDeCAT - who were decisive in bringing down the previous government yeah?
        Yes, as 350 seats in total - given there's a sizeable left vote in Barcelona, in particular, one would imagine the Catalan parties would be more inclined to do a deal with Sanchez. On the other hand, the long game could be that the alternative government would be so anti-Catalan that they would attempt a UDI without a referendum, but that would only see a repeat of 2017.

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          #5
          107 would be a good result for PSOE, compared to 2016.

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            #6
            I'm not sure why the parties who brought down the last PSOE government would be inclined to install a new one, without a shift on PSOE's stance on "the constitution".

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              #7
              I'd imagine a significant faction in PSOE would rather a minority hard RW/fascist govt, than their own party beholden to Nats. Similar dynamics in the Labour Party to an extent..

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                #8
                Yeah, wankers.

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                  #9
                  I'm amazed at the idea of Navarran Nationalists. I'm guessing they aren't full blown seps. It's fairly fuckin conservative up there. Unless they are Pro Euskadi Nats from the north.

                  and yeah now I see PNV aligned groups/ Bildu are in power up there. Gora!
                  Last edited by Lang Spoon; 25-04-2019, 23:11.

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                    I'm amazed at the idea of Navarran Nationalists. I'm guessing they aren't full blown seps. It's fairly fuckin conservative up there. Unless they are Pro Euskadi Nats from the north.

                    and yeah now I see PNV aligned groups/ Bildu are in power up there. Gora!
                    More short-hand in that case - PP and C's joint ticket there because of the increasing success of the Navarre Basque parties, whose votes seem to be going to the left for the GE.

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                      #11
                      Not much Spanish required for the local equivalent of Britain Elects - the map gives an excellent seat projection by province:

                      http://electomania.es
                      Last edited by Diable Rouge; 26-04-2019, 12:38.

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                        #12
                        Link doesn't work for me.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by Sporting View Post
                          Link doesn't work for me.
                          Yes, only seems to work from the opening portal, rather than the link itself, trying to fix it - on the main page, click on the "emojiPanel" button, and it will eventually load.

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                            #14
                            Home page

                            I'm not sure about parties as fruits and vegetables.

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                              Home page

                              I'm not sure about parties as fruits and vegetables.
                              That's purely to work around the moratorium.

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                                #16
                                In the last election the newspaper El Periòdic d'Andorra (sister newspaper of the Spanish version) published polls up to the last day, something not allowed in Spain, in order to circumvent the rules.

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                                  #17
                                  The PP leader, Casado, has just said he would consider including Vox MPs in his Cabinet, should the right get to 176 - in Andalusia, they had a confidence agreement with PP and Ciudadanos, so the creeping normalisation is in full swing:

                                  https://www.spainenglish.com/2019/04...far-right-vox/
                                  Last edited by Diable Rouge; 26-04-2019, 14:44.

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                                    #18
                                    I, for one, am shocked that the PP would consider working with fascists. That is unprecedented.

                                    Are Ciudadanos only distinguishable from PP on policy grounds by their attitude to corruption? Or not even that?

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                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Etienne View Post
                                      I, for one, am shocked that the PP would consider working with fascists. That is unprecedented.

                                      Are Ciudadanos only distinguishable from PP on policy grounds by their attitude to corruption? Or not even that?
                                      They started out as Catalan unionists, because of the odium for PP in the region, and while they are ostensibly in ALDE because of liberal leanings when they first went nationwide, nowadays there's little to distinguish the two.

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                                        #20
                                        So many young people here of my acquaintance are not going to vote for the usual reasons that the parties are all the same, nobody listens to us, they're all corrupt, I'll be on the beach etc.

                                        It's very depressing.

                                        What as so often happens is that the broad left fight among themselves and the right wing parties cosy up to each other. That said, according to the polls there are reasons for feeling tentatively optimistic.

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                                          #21
                                          Final projection marginally better for left than in the OP - Podemos improve one, PP and Vox both lose one, and the other seat goes to Canarian nationalists.

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                                            #22
                                            Hope tae fuck that's accurate.

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                                              #23
                                              First indication of turnout: up 5-7% in Euskadi and Asturias, which would favour the left, but the right can point to similar increases in Navarre and Aragon. Catalonia has seen a whopping 11% surge, which could mean anything, given the unique politics there in the last decade.

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                                                #24
                                                [URL]https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1122491926907957255?s=21[/URL]

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                                                  #25
                                                  This will be the official site for results later, but for now it's concentrating on turnout levels.

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