The battle for Spain

[Sporting]

A lot will depend on how negotiations go with Junts.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So what's the chat?

[Sporting]

Some good analysis here:

https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...ties-open.html

https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...labyrinth.html

However, this comment:

"The Catalan independence movement came out seriously damaged after Sunday’s vote. The 23 deputies it gathered four years ago between the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC), Junts and CUP has been drastically reduced to 14"

seems to ignore the abstentionists.

"As always, the tiny hamlet of Villarroya (in the northern region of La Rioja) was the first to close the polls after its seven registered residents once again broke their own record, and in just 26 seconds exercised their right to vote."

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Disaster at least postponed, some cause for relief given the results feared/expected today.

[Discordant Resonance]

I'm not a Spanish expert but it doesn't look like a stable result to me.

My bet would be on another election within a year

Almost certainly.

[Nefertiti2]

Looks as though Catalonia voted PSOE and kept the far right out- for the moment anyway

[ursus arctos]

I'm not a Spanish expert but it doesn't look like a stable result to me.

My bet would be on another election within a year

[DCI Harry Batt]

So basically it all comes down to what Junts do?

[Discordant Resonance]

This will be the first time Bildu ever won more seats than the PNV, although a predecessor called Amaiur performed similarly in 2011. Esquerra collapsed due to a stalemate in negotiations between Catalonia and the central government, with its supporters accordingly abstaining, and the PSOE thereby gaining in the region.

[Nefertiti2]

90.77% counted
PP-EPP: 32.5%
PSOE-S&D: 32.1%
VOX-ECR: 12.4%
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 12.2%

ERC-G/EFA: 1.9%Junts-NI: 1.7% EH Bildu-LEFT: 1.5% PNV-RE: 1.2% BNG-G/EFA: 0.6%

[Discordant Resonance]

It appears the right will fall short, and finish on 169 seats, which, given none of the regional parties will shoot themselves in the foot by supporting them, might as well be 69 seats, so fresh elections seem inevitable.

[Nefertiti2]

Looks as though the climate denying fascists won't be part of the new government With 82% counted, VOX has lost 19 seats and its vote has fallen from 15% to around 12.5%

[Discordant Resonance]

Still, the left would have bitten your hand off for a dead heat with the right almost halfway through the count.

[Sporting]

Things going better thsn expected, though counting in Madrid, where the right is strong, has been slow.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/lhibachi8/status/1683186726569668615?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[Discordant Resonance]

Turnout appears to be particularly awful in Catalonia (down 11%), seems the pro-independence camp decided to boycott the vote in significant numbers.

[Sporting]

More info here:

https://elpais.com/

[Discordant Resonance]

Depending on which exit poll you believe, PP and Vox combined could either be on 169 seats, and thus seven short of a majority, or north of 180 seats, so probably best to wait for the official results in 40 minutes.

[Discordant Resonance]

The early turnout figures (1pm BST) appear to favour the right, as votes are up in areas where they've recently made gains (Madrid, Valencia, Andalucía), and down in traditional left strongholds (Basque Country, Catalunya).

[Discordant Resonance]

And, as ever, there's a comprehensive official website, currently highlighting how many polling stations are open, before detailing voting rates later in the day, and finally the results.

[Sporting]

If I believed I would be praying.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Doesn't look great.

[Sporting]

The final poll::

https://encuestas.adelaidereview.com...j-t5ejs7m.html

[Discordant Resonance]

As you can see, the Socialists and Sumar have little prospect of continued governance themselves, but have a realistic chance of denying a majority to PP and Vox.

[Discordant Resonance]

It's that pre-election week when polls are officially forbidden, but are then promptly published in unlikely locations, usually Andorra, but even more improbably on this occasion, Adelaide.