European Elections 2019

[Jimski]

These are the two I saw lately:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/...51540505395202

and

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/...05995418574849 - only just seen this latest one - gives Labour an actual majority.

[Lucy Waterman]

Maybe I’m being pessimistic - though the last few years will do that to you - but it seems like a hell of a punt right now. God knows what Farage could do in the space of a GE campaign.

[jwdd27]

Farage is in Huddersfield tomorrow - at the John Smith's Stadium as well, although he's filled a 400-seat function room rather than sold out the stadium, which the local rag suggested from their headline.

It's £2.50 a head, so they've definitely got enough cash to not be bothered about making a profit from the event.

The football club have said "nothing to do with us, just a private room booking". Interesting to know exactly how far out you have to be before Huddersfield Town/Giants will not let you associate with their name.

[Jimski]

Maybe I’m being pessimistic - though the last few years will do that to you - but it seems like a hell of a punt right now. God knows what Farage could do in the space of a GE campaign.

Oh, yeah I'm pessimistic too. I just wondered if you'd seen some specific prediction I'd missed.

[Duncan Gardner]

Interesting to know exactly how far out you have to be before Huddersfield Town/Giants will not let you associate with their name

Leeds United?

[Guy Profumo]

AFC Fylde or Kiddermister Harriers, surely?

[Guy Profumo]

At least Yorkshire CCC told him to pack it in in the run up to the referendum courtesy of that piece of shit from Worcs.

[Guy Profumo]

They really are worthless pieces of shit, aren't they?

And each and everybody who voted or is voting for them


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.b...itics-48244917



https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...206.html%3famp





https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.e...ies-labour/amp

[SouthdownRebel]

Someone I used to work with has just adopted the Brexit party logo as his Twitter avatar. The easiest unfollow I'll have all year.

Edit: In fact, he's ended a three year Twitter hiatus to do so.

[Etienne]

It doesn't surprise me that Farage can get 30% predicted in the Euro Elections (remember UKIP got 26% in 2014) and low 20% GE predictions. I'd be surprised if he got lower, given that all the Right wing press has been screaming about the Tory failure to get through Brexit and given that at least 45% of the electorate back Brexit. I'd be surprised if he can get much higher, especially in a GE. Plenty of people like what he says, but there is a multitude of evidence that a lot more don't. As long as these polls don't show the overall majority of voters moving over from Left and Centre to Right rather than from Lab to LD/Green and Con to Brexit, I don't think that much has changed. If I was a Tory I'd be panicking though.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Nigel's just lost a vote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48245853

[Satchmo Distel]

Mixed feelings. Weekend World was great on foreign affairs (would anyone go that deep now on a Sunday lunchtime?) but a shameful enabler of the SDP and all the shit that went down circa 1981-85, the dark days.

I've no doubt he was a shit in person but that's not where he interacted with my life.

[Guy Profumo]

Nigel's just lost a vote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48245853

Needs a thread of its own, surely?

The odious little Tory-enabling worm.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Mixed feelings. Weekend World was great on foreign affairs (would anyone go that deep now on a Sunday lunchtime?) but a shameful enabler of the SDP and all the shit that went down circa 1981-85, the dark days.

I've no doubt he was a shit in person but that's not where he interacted with my life.

The theme music was fantastic. Dramatic and serious for a dramatic and serious period in our politics.

[Satchmo Distel]

On the theme music:

https://www.loudersound.com/features...de-by-mountain

[Diable Rouge]

http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1127723596460253185

Which gives you seat-wise:

Hard Brexit 30
Remain 23
Soft Brexit 17

Possibly 31-25 when NI seats are included.

[Snake Plissken]

So, how are the prospects for Remain winning that second referendum looking then?

[Diable Rouge]

So, how are the prospects for Remain winning that second referendum looking then?

That depends on Labour - Leave on 47% with UKIPs 3%, Remain 35% (4% for SNP/Plaid), with Labour this holding the balance.

[Etienne]

About the same as they have done for the last few months. Consistently polling higher, but turnout would be key. Don't think any recent developments have changed anything or suggests anything different.

[Etienne]

I don't think you can assume the Tory voters are necessarily pro Brexit either. You basically have 35-40% definitely leave, 35-40% definite remain and then a bunch of people who don't really know or care who will be decisive.

[Benjm]

Leaflet update; we got a Lib Dem one yesterday, hand delivered by an actual volunteer. Change UK and Green arrived today, delivered with the post but not individually addressed.

[Diable Rouge]

Razor-tight battle for the final NI seat, but looks likely to go to a Remain candidate (SDLP or Alliance) on transfers:

http://twitter.com/AlexKane221b/status/1127865821877895168

[NHH]

Gina Miller's 'RemainUnited' seems to be getting a load of traction. She's advising people to vote tactically Lib Dem everywhere in England, which seems - to my mind anyway - to miss the fundamental point in Farage et al aren't getting joy because of a split opposition, but because under a d'Hondt system, as long as people vote for them, they'll get a certain number of seats regardless.

The upshot of the Lib Dem inclined Ms Miller's work seems to be that the Lib Dems will get more votes, at the expense of the Labour Party (whom Ms Miller thinks are a greater threat than Brexit) or the Green Party (who Ms Miller seems to ignore) or the Tigs (a stopped clock being right twice a day and all that). Funny that.

[Duncan Gardner]

@NHH: agreed. Miller (like much of the media) is treating the Euros as effectively an enormous by-election, where supposedly shock support for the Brexit Party means they will 'win' by getting 30-35% of the vote. She's claiming simultaneously that there are only 2 sides in the Election- Remain and Leave- while also that it matters hugely that the LibDems finish ahead of the Greens, Stooges, Nationalists etc.

@DR: if aggregate Unionist support falls to 42% as per that poll, Long could win comfortably she stays in longer than Eastwood. She'll get lots of his transfers, Kennedy won't get any.

See the Thamesmead-based Tory showing at 0.1%...

[Nefertiti2]

Miller is not to be trusted on this.

"To be clear I was a Labour supporter and major funder, and worked closely with the Labour team on pension reforms re the 2015 election. I was/am worried about Corybn's economic naivety, EU views and radical Marxist believes he's held for 40+ yrs, with Venezuela his role-model."

Gina Miller was “more worried about a certain Mr Corbyn” than Brexit when she successfully took the Government to court in 2016.

In a speech to asset management firm Amundi, the businesswoman and campaigner, right, revealed that it was her fears about the Labour leader that drove her legal bid to ensure Parliament would have a vote on Brexit.

“If a prime minister had been able to use the royal prerogative... to alter people’s rights,” she explained, it would have “set a precedent that a future prime minister could also do that. Labour could [have] come in with Mr Corbyn having that power. “I was more worried about him than... Brexit.”