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European Elections 2019

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    #26
    Having become a Lib Dem party member in 2016 entirely because of the Brexit issue, I've no problem with the Greens out-performing Lib Dems. I wish well to all pro-Remain parties, Lib Dems, ChUK, Greens, SNP and PC. And in particular, I think the polling is important ahead of the elections, to show Labour that they are losing support to Remain parties while there's still time for that to infuence the struggle within Labour between Remainers and Leavers. But I can't see Labour any time soon getting anywhere close to the whole-hearted and unambiguous support for a 2nd ref, and/or for a pro-Remain campaign in the event of a 2nd ref, to make them an acceptable option for me. I can't express my loathing for the likes of Ian Lavery strongly enough.

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      #27
      It’s most important that the anti Brexit parties are defeated- also the chuka Gang in coalition with Orban, and the alib Dems whose support for austerity and the referendum led directly to Brexit.


      [URL]https://twitter.com/annpettifor/status/1118820469174566914?s=21[/URL]
      Last edited by Nefertiti2; 18-04-2019, 10:30.

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        #28
        The Lib Dems were indeed massively responsible for Brexit because of their support for austerity, but I think blaming them for the referendum isn't accurate; it wasn't in the coalition agreement and was opposed by them and only came to pass because Cameron won a majority (in most part because they picked off the Lib Dem seats in the SW because the Lib Dems were dumb). The only people who bget a free pass in this are the SNP were the only party to vote against the Referendum Bill in 2015 - the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour all whipped to vote for it.

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          #29
          Labour front-bencher Barry Gardiner (shadow Trade Secretary) gets to the nub of the issue: "Labour is not a Remain party"

          https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...-gardiner-says

          OK, thanks for clarifying. In which case, Labour can absolutely **** off. I will vote for a Remain party.

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            #30
            https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...P=share_btn_tw

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              #31
              This fella doesn't help, at all https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/s...21868562202625

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                #32
                Guy Verhofstad has always been an idiot and always will be

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                  #33
                  Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
                  It’s most important that the anti Brexit parties are defeated- also the chuka Gang in coalition with Orban, and the alib Dems whose support for austerity and the referendum led directly to Brexit.


                  [URL]https://twitter.com/annpettifor/status/1118820469174566914?s=21[/URL]
                  Presume you mean pro-Brexit ​​​​​​parties, Nef, unless you want it to go ahead? Someone has modelled the most recent European poll by regional seats, and come up with:

                  Brexit: 21
                  Labour: 20
                  Con: 12
                  Green: 6
                  Lib Dems: 4
                  SNP: 4
                  CHUK: 3

                  London: Brexit 2, Lab 2, Con 1, Green 1, Lib Dem 1, CHUK 1.
                  SE England: Brex 3, Lab 2, Con 2, Green 1, Lib Dem 1, CHUK 1.
                  SW ": Brexit 2, Con 2, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1.
                  East of England: Brex 2, Lab 2, Con 2, Lib Dem 1.
                  East Midlands: Brex 2, Lab 1, Con 1, Green 1.
                  West Midlands: Brex 3, Lab 1, Con 1, Green 1, CHUK 1.
                  Wales: Brex 2, Lab 1, Con 1 (unfortunately Wales not modelled separately, as Plaid surely safe here.)
                  NE England: Brex 1, Lab 2.
                  NW England: Brex 2, Lab 4, Con 1, Green 1.
                  Scotland: Lab 1, Green 1, SNP 4.

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                    #34
                    Absolutely no point voting for anyone other than Labour in the North East unfortunately, anything else is likely to get us 2 Brexit MEPs out of 3 seats.

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                      #35
                      Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
                      Scotland: Lab 1, Green 1, SNP 4.
                      Man, Scotland is just the best isn't it. No wonder they've got itchy feet.

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                        #36
                        Originally posted by NHH View Post
                        The Lib Dems were indeed massively responsible for Brexit because of their support for austerity, but I think blaming them for the referendum isn't accurate; it wasn't in the coalition agreement and was opposed by them and only came to pass because Cameron won a majority (in most part because they picked off the Lib Dem seats in the SW because the Lib Dems were dumb). The only people who bget a free pass in this are the SNP were the only party to vote against the Referendum Bill in 2015 - the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour all whipped to vote for it.
                        Nick Clegg campaigned for an in out referendum in I think 2008

                        Comment


                          #37
                          Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
                          Tactical voting in Ireland: rank the candidates (or parties) in order. Some of them are very likely to be elected, so your vote isn't wasted

                          And in England: vote for a party you don't like with candidates you've never heard of, whose chance of election will be determined by party not voters. Then sulk when said party continues to do things you greatly dislike. Many votes are for parties who don't get elected, and are thus wasted
                          But not every vote or constituency, it all depends on local circumstances. You just can't generalise to this extent.

                          It's generally better than FPTP but not exclusively so.

                          Comment


                            #38
                            Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post

                            Nick Clegg campaigned for an in out referendum in I think 2008
                            I didn't know that, but my reaction is "so what?". It's what parties stand for now, and what they propose to do now, that matters, not what they might have done 11 years ago. That's almost as many years ago as the Iraq war, but guess what, I don't take that criminal warmongering into account in assessing the acceptability of Labour's platform in 2019. The Lib Dems are an energetically and unambiguously Remain party, Labour most definitely isn't, either in fact or by its own account.

                            Comment


                              #39
                              Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post

                              Nick Clegg campaigned for an in out referendum in I think 2008
                              Irrelevant though, isn't it. So did Caroline Lucas. Hell, I used to think it was a good idea.

                              Comment


                                #40
                                Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post

                                Nick Clegg campaigned for an in out referendum in I think 2008
                                More a referendum to ratify future treaties at that period, I think.

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                                  #41
                                  NI candidates so far:

                                  Alliance: Naomi Long
                                  DUP: Diane Dodds
                                  Green: TBA
                                  SDLP: Colum Eastwood
                                  SF: Martina Anderson
                                  UUP: Danny Kennedy
                                  Last edited by Diable Rouge; 18-04-2019, 16:07.

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                                    #42
                                    @Nef- Lucas told the last Green Conference that supporting the 2016 Ref was her biggest mistake in politics

                                    George C. I'm not generalising by saying that a tranferable system means that hardly any votes are wasted, and that as a result it allows genuine tactics, as opposed to picking only one party that you dont support. But go ahead, give me one example where FPTP is better- and bear in mind that even if an MP gets 75%, thats 25% wasted. In almost every seat its much more than that
                                    Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 18-04-2019, 14:29.

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                                      #43
                                      Dunc, I think that you've tagged the wrong George there...

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                                        #44
                                        Thanks GO

                                        @DR: as previously mentioned, Unionism overall will get very close to 2 quotas (50%+1), and tend to transfer to each other. So the UUP should get the 3rd seat unless Squeaky Jim Allister stands and ups his personal vote

                                        Comment


                                          #45
                                          Originally posted by NHH View Post

                                          Irrelevant though, isn't it. So did Caroline Lucas. Hell, I used to think it was a good idea.
                                          Except neither you nor Caroline Lucas went into coalition with a party which offered a referendum 2yesrs later

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                                            #46
                                            Nef, your argument is just a desperate attempt to muddy the waters about the fact that Lib Dems are fully supporting the Remain movement and large parts of Labour are pro-Brexit. Your last point is utterly ridiculous. Cameron's failed gamble of including a referendum in the 2015 manifesto was largely based on his assumption that the Lib Dems would save him from having to have one by refusing to accept one as part of post-2015 coalition renewal negotiations. His gamble backfired when, against his expectations, the Tories got an absolute majority at the 2015 election, this making the Lib Dem's known hostility to such a referendum academic.

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                                              #47
                                              As did the fact that the LibDem vote collapsed in 2015 – which, by contrast, was in line with everyone's expectations – and they'd have been in a much weaker position in any coalition negotiations than they were in 2010, if they'd been in a position to enter them at all.

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                                                #48
                                                This is ludicrous Nef. BY all means drop buckets of shit on the Lib dems for their frankly appalling approach to coalitions, or their ineptitude to see the Tories would eat them for breakfast, but you simply can't make any linkage between Clegg's ratification referendum promise (a norm in very many EU members) and the in-out referendum Cameron offered. Clegg's a cunt for sure, but it serves no good end to add bollocks to the charge sheet.

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                                                  #49
                                                  Some continental polling:

                                                  http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1118894598707920897

                                                  http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1118778235591057410

                                                  http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1118649628235390977

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                                                    #50
                                                    Portugal continues to be an island of left strength:

                                                    http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1118966924002639878

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