OTF Brexit Predictathon

[Lucy Waterman]

It’ll be the last thing May does, I assume.

[johnr]

Sixth one down. My optimistic side has always belived we'll end up staying in and maybe, just maybe it's slowly swinging that way. Nothing politically scientific or anything, just my gut feeling back in June 2016.

Mine too. I posted it a few times early on the thread, and despite occasionally wavering, I still think we'll get there, hopefully by 4 and 5 above - A50 extension, GE, Labour win, deal, ref, Remain. I can dream.

[ad hoc]

I dunno, I'm massively conflicted by last night's vote. I cant actually see how it brings remain back into the equation all it seems to do is to make no deal more likely. Plus I'm torn between the British side of me wanting the UK to stay in the EU and the European side of me wanting the UK to just sign the deal and move on. (and now that I've been told in no uncertain terms by the UK's government that I'm nobody to them, that side is increasingly dominant)

[Nocturnal Submission]

Interesting that Brexit with Customs Union is doing so poorly in the vote, given that that's probably the most popular option amongst MPs.

[SouthdownRebel]

I went with 5 on the basis that Parliament would only ever revoke if it were a binary choice between that and no deal. In that scenario, May puts her deal back on the table and it probably becomes favourite. I was probably driven by wishful thinking though.

That said, predictions at this stage are of course a fool's errand.

[Snake Plissken]

My “something else” is no deal - either now or in the summer - followed by a deal signed within fourteen days of the ensuing chaos.

After last nights shenanigans, I'm with you on this - but I'm not sure what form that deal will take

I know that it is a harsh thing to say and a hard thing to say appropriately, but I genuinely think May is mentally ill in some way. I don't know the right words for it, but time and time and time again she has pursued a course of action which has failed over and over and over and never ever considered a plan for if it doesn't work. Last night was a perfect example - she was likely to lose the first vote but had no plan for what happened when she did. so utter confusion reigns with the whips and she loses the second vote by an even greater margin while weakening her own authority even more. She's done it too many times to be incompetence (someone around her would have given her guidance or told her to consider it). It's a psychological thing and frankly, its fucking dangerous.

It is because of this I think we're heading to No Deal. She refuses to acknowledge extension or revocation, she's trying to force through something that has failed in record numbers twice and all it takes is for the ERG and DUP to fuck around - or, perhaps, some frog faced twat to chuck roubles at a compliant EU to crash us out on the 29th. Oh, if only that plane had been 1000 feet higher.

[HORN]

Agree with Snake. There's a massive blindspot somewhere in May's perspective. It'd be intriguing if it wasn't proving so damaging.

[Moonlight Shadow]

I think it's an issue with her faith. She thinks it's some kind of divine mission to deliver Brexit and you know how impervious to logic zealots can be...

[Diable Rouge]

I think it's an issue with her faith. She thinks it's some kind of divine mission to deliver Brexit and you know how impervious to logic zealots can be...

That sounds distinctly Presbyterian - Anglicans tend to be watered-down Catholics in terms of intensity levels.