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OTF Brexit Predictathon

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    OTF Brexit Predictathon

    Following Cox's torpedoing of May, what the hell do you predict will happen?

    Please vote.

    Fell free to explain why you voted as you did, but substantive discussion should stay on the original thread.
    58
    No Deal
    20.69%
    12
    May's Agreement or Similar
    22.41%
    13
    Brexit with Customs Union
    5.17%
    3
    General Election
    8.62%
    5
    Deal passed but requiring approval in 2nd Ref
    8.62%
    5
    Revoke and 2nd Ref
    17.24%
    10
    Something else
    17.24%
    10

    #2
    I've put no deal. I think it's marginally the most likely of the options, but my main reason is that somehow the absolute worst outcome seems inevitable just because the whole thing is such a massive clusterfuck

    Comment


      #3
      I think 4 and 5, but can't vote for more than one.

      Comment


        #4
        Where does the notional possibility of a European Election in Britain fit in?

        Comment


          #5
          Hmm, surprised to see I've gone with the majority. Which of course means absolutely nothing.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by johnr View Post
            I think 4 and 5, but can't vote for more than one.

            I was in a similar place, but went with General Election in the end.

            Comment


              #7
              I've gone with something else. Because even though I've followed this whole thing (much too) closely, the only people more confused about where we are and what will happen are those actually voting on it.

              Comment


                #8
                Yes, there are so many permutations it was impossible to cover everything - I obviously ignored short extension/long extension etc.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Maybe prefix your thread title with the word "Poll," Etienne.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    The EU can't do any more tweaking with the backstop, so I went for the Withdrawal Agreement, even if an extension will be required before eventual approval.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I went for 2, largely because press spin has been more predictive than actual facts throughout this process, though would note that 2 followed by 3 is not an impossible outcome.

                      The absolute state of the UK in these negotiations has to have the EU team tasked with negotiating the final deal ruing the day they decided to join the Eurocracy.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        They produce a leaflet for Eurocract apprentices - "Dealing with countries with no recognised government"

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Gone for No. 2 as marginally the most likely of those options. Though obviously "Fuck knows" is the correct answer.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Can only echo the feeling that 'not a fucking clue' would be the most appropriate response, but my thoughts on the situation are similar to ad hoc: it's been such an unrelenting shitshow that 'No Deal' just seems like the most likely outcome.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Isn't Number 3 a subset of Number 2?

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Anybody else feel like all seven options are of equal or near-equal likelihood? Maybe revoke and 2nd ref as the least likely by more than a few percentage points, but the UK's complete lack of a plan and, honestly, lack of understanding of what leaving the EU actually means means all options are on the table. May really is an extraordinarily incompetent leader, isn't she?

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  3 could theoretically follow any of the other options.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    It could end up the same, but its not inevitable. And I think there is a difference between a customs union agreement and one where the UK is kept in unwillingly via a backstop.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      I voted for No Deal because I'm extremely pessimistic. Unless someone stabs Moggy and the press demand everything stops for a nation to mourn.

                                      It's just inexorable. It has been since May set the date to appease the gammons and the ERG. And Jezza has been impotent from day one.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        I voted for Revoke and 2nd Ref by a process of elimination because:

                                        - I think there's a majority in Parliament who really get what a catastrophe No Deal would be (and care enough about that),

                                        - May's deal won't get through because the ERG are fanatics and Corbyn will oppose it on party political point-scoring grounds alone;

                                        - I can't see the EU engaging with any other kind of deal after all this dicking around, so I don't see Corbyn's customs union Brexit flying.

                                        I hasten to add that I'm not an optimist, and I can see the 2nd Ref leading to disaster due to the manipulation of public opinion by Russian-funded fake news trolling, abetted by scum like Esther McVey who are happy to run with outright lies.

                                        I also think we're going to have the cunt in twat's clothing (copyright Purves Grundy) as our PM before long.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          His bluff may need to be called. I suspect Johnson knows the Brexit jig is up but is still positioning himself as its torchbearer, the prig over the water.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            He makes me incoherently angry, that Johnson cunt. I fear as PM his Churchill fantasies would lead him to become a tousle haired Orban/Erdogan/Benito and we would have to find an appropriate lamppost and an armed forces that cared about "liberal democracy" above Orders or Free Tommy memes to be rid of the Cunt.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Sixth one down. My optimistic side has always belived we'll end up staying in and maybe, just maybe it's slowly swinging that way. Nothing politically scientific or anything, just my gut feeling back in June 2016.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                My “something else” is no deal - either now or in the summer - followed by a deal signed within fourteen days of the ensuing chaos.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Lucy Waterman View Post
                                                  My “something else” is no deal - either now or in the summer - followed by a deal signed within fourteen days of the ensuing chaos.
                                                  Who's going to sign that deal ,though?

                                                  Comment

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