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Chuka Can't: The IG Thread

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    You might as well split NI as DUP 11 (Sylvia Hermon is likelyto retire), SF 7.

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      Surely that depends on when any GE is. She might hang on to spite the religious bigots.

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        She's forecast to lose whether the GE is in 2019, 2022 or any point between. So wouldn't be spiting anyone but herself.

        She is a genuine Independent (unlike has-beens like Frank Field, Ian Austin or Tiggy & the Stooges) but her ticket is Unionist. Not parking, potholes and dog poo. Most Unionists support Brexit and oppose Labour (with whom Hermon has links). She only just got in in 2017

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          Heidi Allen is my MP. I can't see her retaining her seat if Ch UK persist with their objective of annihilating and replacing us Lib Dems. Yes, she is very popular personally, and has worked the constituency like no MP before her, what with public meetings, lots of surgeries etc., and yes, this is a very centrist and Remain area full of professional and technical types. But the Lib Dems have massive momentum here, having won overall control of the District Council recently (a massive shift from Tory to LD), and there will be a lot of Lib Dems who are pretty hostile in reaction to Ch UK's tactics of taking us on rather than co-operating - a large enough portion of the centrist vote to stop her getting enough to beat the Tories. I think all she will do is split the centrist/Remain-prioritising vote and hand the seat to whichever arsehole Tory replaces her as their candidate.
          Last edited by Evariste Euler Gauss; 30-04-2019, 16:20.

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            Originally posted by Evariste Euler Gauss View Post
            Heidi Allen is my MP. I can't see her retaining her seat if Ch UK persist with their objective of annihilating and replacing us Lib Dems. Yes, she is very popular personally, and has worked the constituency like no MP before her, what with public meetings, lots of surgeries etc., and yes, this is a very centrist and Remain area full of professional and technical types. But the Lib Dems have massive momentum here, having won overall control of the District Council recently (a massive shift from Tory to LD), and there will be a lot of Lib Dems who are pretty hostile in reaction to Ch UK's tactics of taking us on rather than co-operating - a large enough portion of the centrist vote to stop her getting enough to beat the Tories. I think all she will do is split the centrist/Remain-prioritising vote and hand the seat to whichever arsehole Tory replaces her as their candidate.
            It's still a pretty Tory area all told though, I get that the growth of Cambridge's economy and all the people who have come into the area will tend to be as you portray them, but there's still a lot of rural tory farmers and traditional village tories out there beyond the railway corridor and the immediate environs of the city. Has that constituency (or its rough predecessors) ever not voted Tory? My parents moved there in 1973 and I've never known there be a non Tory MP (well, until now, but she was elected as a Tory)

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              TIG's comms team are triumphing again... https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...83614225096704

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                Tsk. This is going to subdue the mood in Nando's this evening.

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                  Originally posted by johnr View Post
                  TIG's comms team are triumphing again... https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...83614225096704
                  This is another data point to support TyskySour’s assertion that CHUK have no money behind them, because their never ending amateur hour strongly suggests they aren’t paying professionals or paying very well to do basic tasks for them.

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                    I dunno. I think they have plenty of money, but they expected a lot more to join them, particularly from Labour. And I'm talking about support staff, activists etc as well as MPs. I think Labour either have done a very effective job of cutting them off or maybe they didn't realise how much they had alienated themselves (cf Coffey in Stockport). They don't have the people to delegate this sort of thing to.

                    I also think that they thought they could waltz off with the membership details and didn't factor GDPR into it. I know that if I had got an email I'd have been onto the ICO faster than you could breathe.

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                      They're a far more attractive proposition to disillusioned Tories than they are to Labourites. To take their main issue, Brexit, this is a contestable space within Labour, with lots of shades of grey, and the possibility of reasoned argument winning out. That space is no longer contestable within the Tories, where the hard-right Brexiters have won emphatically, and there's no way to win it back.

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                        It's very different from the SDP in that respect, which was the proto-Blairite party. It's much easier to imagine ChUK as the Tory Remainer Party. It's also much weaker than the SDP in only having one policy, whereas the SDP had proportional representation*, multilateralism, pro-NATO, mixed economy, anti-Clause 4 strands IIRC

                        *Not sure about PR, which I associate more with the Liberals, whereas for the SDP it was perhaps purely a tactical move to embrace PR rather than a matter of principle.
                        Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 08-05-2019, 10:29.

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                          The SDP - and LibDems - have generally been pretty deficient on "matters of principle" over the years.

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                            PR is an issue of principle for those who would lose seats were it introduced

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                              Really?

                              Surely not...

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                                Absolutely. And it's more of an issue for supporters of those parties who would benefit from its introduction.

                                Baffling.

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                                  For you?

                                  Clearly...

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                                    My ironic remark was directed at Duncan, you witness moron, Gonzo!

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                                      Makes no sense.

                                      ??

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                                        I mean, I know you're aiming for short and pithy, and you're half-way there, but you really do need to try and say something, preferably clearly, when you post something.

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                                          God, I love these fuckwits.

                                          https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1126920107693883399

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                                            Tonton on FB has just said that the CUK's main candidate for Scotland in the Euros has defected. Is that true? That's pretty impressive if people are defecting already

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                                              It is, hilariously, true...

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                                                I've seen that elsewhere. He's gone to the Lib Dems. Someone called David MacDonald.

                                                https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-48281672

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                                                  Politics is really hard work at the moment. Genuinely, I'm really enjoying the Tiggers though. Today has been a vintage day, two big laughs here https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1129014008638578688
                                                  https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...57137089536005
                                                  Last edited by johnr; 16-05-2019, 16:23.

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                                                    They are genuinely one of the oddest political entities I can ever recall, intriguing and confusing me at the same time.

                                                    I should really stay away from this thread.

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