Venezuela

[Gerontophile]

*

[Lang Spoon]

Yeah, same here (to ad hoc). I knew Venezuelans back when I was in the tefl game (early 2000s) who thought Chavez was Worse Than Hitler, but their main complaints were about being their pijo parents having to pay a decent level of tax for the Undeserving Poor.

There were a few decent articles in the LRB back when I still read it a couple of years ago that were pretty even handed re US perfidy but also the really bad decisions of Chavez post 2008 and especially the Maduro shitshow. Will be buggered if I can remember the writer's name but.

sidelining parliament for this Consituents Assembly or whatever has given legitimacy for what are most probably nasty far right actors to stage this coup, but any decent analysis surely has to put some blame at the current regime.

[ursus arctos]

ad hoc, This piece from le Monde Diplomatique (in English) isn't bad on where things are, though it isn't very hopeful on solutions.

[ad hoc]

Thanks ursus. That's a better piece than any I've read before

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

What the fucking fuck were they doing? I had to stop reading that at several points. Jesus Christ what a mess.

[Lang Spoon]

No wonder the Russians are best pals with that sweet Rosneft loan deal.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

I'd imagine the support would be there for anything other than Maduro no matter where they lie on the political spectrum, purely out of self interest. Whilst Maduro stays in place the number of refugees leaving Venezuela will just keep increasing.

What's this based on?

I imagine that's true of middle-class white Venezuelan, yes, but working class, black and indigenous Venezuelans probably have a lot to fear from a coup. You only need to look at Honduras (where a coup precipitated the world's highest peace-time murder rate, the wholesale slaughter of indigenous and environmental activists and a refugee crisis) or Brazil which appears to be desperate to follow Honduras' lead. Or indeed any of the other countries where the US has supported regime change.

[Satchmo Distel]

According to HRW's 2017 report, "Police and military raids in low-income and immigrant communities have led to widespread allegations of abuse, including extrajudicial killings, mass arbitrary detentions, maltreatment of detainees, forced evictions, the destruction of homes, and arbitrary deportations."

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...ers/venezuela#

A coup could make it worse for these people but I imagine some of them would be willing to take the risk if it delivers elections and some US economic relief.

[Flynnie]

Has anybody seen evidence of any left opposition to Maduro in Venezuela? The one Venezuelan friend I have on Facebook seems to have gone full gusano when it comes to Maduro, basically begging Trump to overthrow the Maduro government.

[Sean of the Shed]

What's this based on?

I imagine that's true of middle-class white Venezuelan, yes, but working class, black and indigenous Venezuelans probably have a lot to fear from a coup. You only need to look at Honduras (where a coup precipitated the world's highest peace-time murder rate, the wholesale slaughter of indigenous and environmental activists and a refugee crisis) or Brazil which appears to be desperate to follow Honduras' lead. Or indeed any of the other countries where the US has supported regime change.

That was in reply to E10 (as quoted) and referred to neighbouring states as opposed to the Venezuelan population. I was saying that neighbouring states would accept anyone who might trigger a slowdown in the number of refugees crossing the borders.

[Flynnie]

ad hoc, This piece from le Monde Diplomatique (in English) isn't bad on where things are, though it isn't very hopeful on solutions.

This is mentioned in the piece and is also very good. For dumbasses like me that don't math good, this is the most succinct and understandable explanation of the crisis:

Temir Porras, a former aide to Maduro, explained that, though the [currency] controls had been designed as a temporary measure to prevent capital flight, ‘they became the main engine. As a country highly dependent on imports, Venezuela has structural inflation of 15-20%. Not the dollar. Pegging the bolivar to the dollar meant overvaluing it.There was no better recipe for destroying domestic production.Not only did it become more expensive to produce locally than to import, but the country rediscovered a particularly lucrative business — over-invoicing imports.’

It’s a simple transaction. The importer has a network that allows him to buy bottled water at 10 cents a bottle. He asks the state for dollars with which to buy a million bottles, which he declares at 20 cents each, through an offshore company that he has set up for the purpose. He is left with an extra $100,000. Porras said: ‘The profit is often made even before the product reaches the market. So some importers leave the goods in the warehouse, and only sell what they need to buy more dollars.’

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

That was in reply to E10 (as quoted) and referred to neighbouring states as opposed to the Venezuelan population. I was saying that neighbouring states would accept anyone who might trigger a slowdown in the number of refugees crossing the borders.

Ah, I thought you were talking about "in venezuela". I guess I disagree with that too - as Colombia and Brazil's current regimes are supportive of the elements who would create new refugees.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

This is quite good. and brings in the nature of clientelism in a resource rich country.

[Lang Spoon]

That's a very good article.

[Nefertiti2]

This is good...

https://twitter.com/pablonav1/status/1089184170197336066

There are many people that aren't happy with the government of Theresa May. That doesn't mean a minor member of the Labour Party can declare themselves Prime Minister.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Isn't this guy more the John Bercow of Venezuela, rather than a labour backbencher?

[Nefertiti2]

I'm paraphrasing what Pablo Navarrete says- think he says minor labour figure or similar and that a week ago only 20 percent of Venezuelans knew who he was.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

hah, I don't think anyone would know who Bercow was, if he hadn't turned out to be The parliamentary version of those Dancing traffic cops who want to go viral.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

UN Special Rapporteur calls US sanctions against Venezuela illegal and recommends that they be investigated as crimes against humanity.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8748201.html

[ad hoc]

This is a really helpful and in depth discussion of the history of the Chavez movement and onto Maduro. It is from 2016, but I think it gives a clear and seemingly very objective picture of what has happened https://newleftreview.org/II/99/juli...a-after-chavez

[G-Man]

If we widen the net and include Central America,Costa Rica is an unbelievably stable and progressive country if you compare it to other countries in the region. I didn't really know too much about the place until friends moved there 15 years or so ago, but it really does seem to be a hugely impressive country on many levels and I would imagine that abolishing its army as it has done would score highly with many OFTers.

Southern neighbour Panama has done the same, and has a properly institutionalised democracy. But their cops are armed and not terrible discreet about it. One often sees two black-clad policeman on motorbikes, both with machine guns lung over their backs.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/BenEhrenreich/status/1099495772360527874

[ursus arctos]

Coup attempt underway, accompanied by cheerleading from the likes of Bolton and Rubio

[URL]https://twitter.com/samanarbabi/status/1123232101162192896?s=21[/URL]

[San Bernardhinault]

If it weren't for the fact that this seems to be stoked by interventionist US right wing crazies, and instead was a genuine domestic popular uprising, then I wouldn't be too upset about a coup in Venezuela.

[E10 Rifle]

A military coup in a Latin America cheerled by hard-right autocrats in other South American countries and backed by the US government: if only there were some kind of pointers from history about how these things pan out.