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Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

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  • That Night In Barcelona
    replied
    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
    It is certainly conceivable that the Senate could have flipped by then, which could actually harm the Democratic presidential candidate, given the electorate's apparent preference for divided government.
    How likely do you think it is that the Senate will flip? My understanding was that the Republicans had it locked in thanks to gerrymandered districts and common or garden-variety voter suppression.

    Leave a comment:


  • ursus arctos
    replied
    I am exactly in the same place, but genuinely find it difficult to talk about.

    Netanyahu's increasingly desperate attempts to cling to power are, I'm afraid, a harbinger of what we are likely to see here.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bruno
    replied
    Right now I'm more worried about electoral subversion keeping Trump in office than popularity. We've entered an "all bets off" period.

    Leave a comment:


  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Depends on a host of factors, but that is definitely one.

    A significant number of pundits believe that it will take the loss of the Senate to break Trump's grip on the party.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sporting
    replied
    Depends maybe on if the GOP go for a more centrist candidate?

    Leave a comment:


  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Flynnie raises an interesting point that I think has merit, which is that the "real" contest will be in 2024, given the obvious infirmities of both candidates this time around (and Biden's one term pledge).

    It is certainly conceivable that the Senate could have flipped by then, which could actually harm the Democratic presidential candidate, given the electorate's apparent preference for divided government.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lurgee
    replied
    Originally posted by Flynnie View Post

    Oh I'm not personally attacking you, just using your post as a springboard for why this idea -- which is essentially the Democratic Party plan, just with Biden -- is such a bad one.
    I didn't feel particularly attacked. I just wanted you to understand the absolute depths of my cynicism and despair.

    Leave a comment:


  • Flynnie
    replied
    Originally posted by Lurgee View Post

    You'll note I suggested nominating Buttigieg and running on a platform of "I won't change anything much but at least I won't be (such) a shambling, incoherent, embarrassing fool" would be honest, not necessarily wise or successful. Even such a frank pitch requires - as you said - a once-in-a-generation charismatic front man (sic) to win against the 'Blame the foreigns and Make America Great!!"
    Oh I'm not personally attacking you, just using your post as a springboard for why this idea -- which is essentially the Democratic Party plan, just with Biden -- is such a bad one.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lurgee
    replied
    Originally posted by Flynnie View Post

    And they would lose, if not now then in 2024 once somebody who can speak a sentence without turning it into self-aggrandizement runs. People want change and some security, it might be good politics to just fucking give it to them. There is always a danger the Republicans do so first, for their voters alone and damn everybody else. In which case the Dems are in huge trouble.

    The Democrats have been the first line of defence against the wishes of their own voters for over a decade now, probably longer. It's not really been a winning strategy, not with the losses in local and state legislatures, the governorships, their inability to consistently hold onto the House and Senate, something people took for granted during the New Deal years. They'd held the Presidency a couple times with once-in-a-generation charismatic politicians who then ended up underachieving in office because they lost the midterms.

    Something's gonna give. Either the Dems sack up, or they're a rump party for inner city liberals and brown people for good, unable to actually effect any meaningful change because they don't have the levers of power anymore. Reduced to caterwauling about norms on the Supreme Court for the benefit of their simpering audience, because they don't have the votes to do anything about it. Maybe the decline and fall of the Boomers will change things, who knows.
    You'll note I suggested nominating Buttigieg and running on a platform of "I won't change anything much but at least I won't be (such) a shambling, incoherent, embarrassing fool" would be honest, not necessarily wise or successful. Even such a frank pitch requires - as you said - a once-in-a-generation charismatic front man (sic) to win against the 'Blame the foreigns and Make America Great!!"

    Leave a comment:


  • Flynnie
    replied
    Originally posted by Lurgee View Post

    Under the USAian election system and governmental structure that is pretty much inevitable. the whole system seems built to encourage stasis at best, or entropy. A president can do little good, but a reasonable amount of harm.

    If they were honest, the Dems would nominate Buttigieg and he'd run on a platform of "I won't change anything much but at least I won't be (such) a shambling, incoherent, embarrassing fool."
    And they would lose, if not now then in 2024 once somebody who can speak a sentence without turning it into self-aggrandizement runs. People want change and some security, it might be good politics to just fucking give it to them. There is always a danger the Republicans do so first, for their voters alone and damn everybody else. In which case the Dems are in huge trouble.

    The Democrats have been the first line of defence against the wishes of their own voters for over a decade now, probably longer. It's not really been a winning strategy, not with the losses in local and state legislatures, the governorships, their inability to consistently hold onto the House and Senate, something people took for granted during the New Deal years. They'd held the Presidency a couple times with once-in-a-generation charismatic politicians who then ended up underachieving in office because they lost the midterms.

    Something's gonna give. Either the Dems sack up, or they're a rump party for inner city liberals and brown people for good, unable to actually effect any meaningful change because they don't have the levers of power anymore. Reduced to caterwauling about norms on the Supreme Court for the benefit of their simpering audience, because they don't have the votes to do anything about it. Maybe the decline and fall of the Boomers will change things, who knows.

    Leave a comment:


  • anton pulisov
    replied
    Also the ones about Sanders being an old, white male, I presume.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nefertiti2
    replied
    can anyone disagree with this?

    https://twitter.com/rebeinstein/status/1244463200159977472?s=20

    Leave a comment:


  • Nefertiti2
    replied
    [URL]https://twitter.com/guillotineshout/status/1244665397950976002?s=21[/URL]

    Leave a comment:


  • Satchmo Distel
    replied
    The progressive legislation and SCOTUS judgments of circa 1963-1973 now seem like a historical outlier rather than the true curve of US liberal democracy.

    Leave a comment:


  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Imposed on a system designed to preserve the supremacy of a white, land and slaveholding class, yes

    Leave a comment:


  • Bruno
    replied
    It's all explained by the capitalism koolaid if you ask me.

    Leave a comment:


  • That Night In Barcelona
    replied
    Originally posted by Lurgee View Post

    Under the USAian election system and governmental structure that is pretty much inevitable. the whole system seems built to encourage stasis at best, or entropy. A president can do little good, but a reasonable amount of harm.

    If they were honest, the Dems would nominate Buttigieg and he'd run on a platform of "I won't change anything much but at least I won't be (such) a shambling, incoherent, embarrassing fool."
    You do occasionally get a president like FDR that shows that
    a) The electoral system can produce presidents that operate for the benefit of the general population
    b) There's a lot of positive change that a president can make through executive decrees alone

    The frustration with the Dems is because:
    a) Some of them naively think government is like the West Wing and it's an intellectual process of finding a compromise position between two opposing arguments, which has dragged policy to the far right
    b) The rest of them have no interest in anything other than the status quo.

    I don't think the whole system has to encourage stasis, it's a feature of having an opposition party that are really only interested in performative acts of resistance supported by a liberal media that seems obsessed with 'sports team' politics ('Blue no matter who') and pushing a Russophobia agenda.

    Leave a comment:


  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Interesting data point
    ​​​​​​
    https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1244062031461986310

    Leave a comment:


  • Lurgee
    replied
    Originally posted by Incandenza View Post
    SB provides a good summary of the Democrats' message for decades--"we aren't great, but it could have been a lot worse!"
    Under the USAian election system and governmental structure that is pretty much inevitable. the whole system seems built to encourage stasis at best, or entropy. A president can do little good, but a reasonable amount of harm.

    If they were honest, the Dems would nominate Buttigieg and he'd run on a platform of "I won't change anything much but at least I won't be (such) a shambling, incoherent, embarrassing fool."
    Last edited by Lurgee; 28-03-2020, 19:32.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bruno
    replied
    A pandemic would be a great time for structural reform if the ruling class were willing, but they're not. They're looking for ways to steal more and will blame the piled-up bodies on whomever is convenient. Better than even chances that the world will look more fascist than before after this blows over.

    Leave a comment:


  • caja-dglh
    replied
    It was in jest, though I should know better than to even joke when you are around. It is all made in the US by the way, by one of the companies doing the most to invest in the country.

    I don't need a bail out nor care for one. You spend much time posting twitter links and critiquing it is hard to know what you want, but very clear what you don't. only now we actually see some words from you.

    You really want politics to hold any form of relief hostage any longer? That seems like a great idea from the land of Nefertiti? In this crisis you try and gain political gain? For your viewpoint of any more left-wing government in the US to be achieved you would get your hands burned so much it wouldn't happen in your great-great-grandchildren's lifetime. You like to attack things like you have the answers, but you clearly have not a fucking clue how the United States operates. You are here with your two cents every time, yet no concept when anyone tells you why it isn't going to work.

    So oh great one, how do you direct federal funds to the homeless within the legal constructs of the US?

    I might well need an extension. I have already known one person die in this pandemic and could easily end up with family living with me if some of them die too. A fair few are high risk. I would rather not have government spend any more time twisting around on wording of a bail out and get to trying to save people.

    Leave a comment:


  • San Bernardhinault
    replied
    Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post

    Whilst a man who makes a living from imaginary numbers going up and down brags about having spent his handout ion his garage gym.
    You really need to move away from attacking people for what they do. It's unbecoming in a place like OTF which is normally full of decent people behaving decently. Or is it your goal to make sure that nobody ever says anything personal on this site for fear that you will use it to abuse them at some point?

    Leave a comment:


  • Nefertiti2
    replied
    Kerching!
    I am pretty relaxed about a Republican senate and president writing a huge check on the deficit. Sure, parts aren't ideal. The parachute payment ($1200) is something at least and the unemployment piece is very valuable. There is some governance on the bailouts to business.
    https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1243681726012051456?s=20

    Leave a comment:


  • Nefertiti2
    replied
    Originally posted by caja-dglh View Post
    could have done with being on that $1200 list. already spent it on a garage gym.
    The privilege is repulsive.

    Wanting money to go to those who will be homeless and dying Is "Living on a cloud with a fied full of pet unicorns".

    Whilst a man who makes a living from imaginary numbers going up and down brags about having spent his handout ion his garage gym.

    "A Pandemic isn't time to enforce some kind of structural reform" who told you that - the pandemic fairy?

    A pandemic is an excellent time to impose structural reform -It would save many lives. But that's unresalistic.

    Stkill let's look on the bright side t I'm sure your company will benefit from the bailout -

    Maybe you've be able to build an extension with your bonus. There'll be lots of people needing the work.

    Keep lifting those weights, It help keep the unicorns away.
    Last edited by Nefertiti2; 27-03-2020, 22:51.

    Leave a comment:


  • caja-dglh
    replied
    Ah, the relentless Nefertiti looking for a democracy to deliver something it has spent decades of proving itself incapable of doing.

    I am pretty relaxed about a Republican senate and president writing a huge check on the deficit. Sure, parts aren't ideal. The parachute payment ($1200) is something at least and the unemployment piece is very valuable. There is some governance on the bailouts to business.

    It is about making decisions. I decided to live in America. From your endless criticism you live on a cloud with a field full of pet unicorns. A pandemic isn't really a great time to enforce some form of structural reform. Glad your government is executing spectacularly on your every last wish.

    Leave a comment:

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