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Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

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    Originally posted by WOM View Post

    Understood. But that's with the tossups completely excluded from the count. That's what makes it comfortable.
    Anything that "leans Democrat" as far as I'm concerned is in play
    ​​

    Comment


      Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post

      Oh! I've just seen parts of the story.

      An unknown person who might or might not be Hunter Biden dropped off a laptop with a Beau Biden Foundation sticker at a small computer repair shop in Delaware and never reclaimed it...

      And the computer shop owner happened to back up the hard drive and give it to Rudy!'s lawyer before it was subpoenad and taken by the FBI.

      And to prove its authenticity it has footage of Hunter in a lewd act high on crack, as well as having the "incriminating" emails.

      Is anyone who's not already 100% in the bag for the QAnon end of Trumpism going to even give this a second glance?
      I have no doubt that Hunter Biden has used his name to enrich himself. But this is all so comically shady, click for thread:

      https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1316363540421316609

      Comment


        Originally posted by TonTon View Post
        Never read anything into any voting numbers, that's what I say. I mean, they shouldn't be released until they've all been counted, really.

        538's polling average figure for Pennsylvania in 2016 was fairly close to the result. I'd not assume "better polling".
        It wasn't great.

        Their final average in 2016 was
        Clinton 48.9
        Trump 45.2
        Johnson 4.6

        Actual result:
        Trump 48.2
        Clinton 47.5
        Johnson 2.4

        A lot of Johnson supporters breaking for Trump there, it would seem.

        Comment


          48.9 v 47.5 is a bit more than "fairly close". 45.2 v 48.2 is a bit less than "fairly close". And yeah Johnson's voters went to Trump, it seems. I wouldn't expect a lot better from polling.

          Comment


            This is somewhat reassuring:


            "If...the election is a blowout, and Trump is flinging wild accusations about wide-scale fraud and deep-state conspiracies to take him down, Republicans will be forced to choose a side. They will either stand with a battered soon-to-be-former president whose days in office are numbered whether he likes it or not, or they will stand with the democratic norms that have guided the nation for 244 years.

            There is reason to be skeptical of some of the Republicans who have enabled and justified Trump’s assault on institutions these past five years. But keep in mind: They are on the ballot, too. If Mitch McConnell agrees that Biden’s victory is illegitimate, he is making the case that his own victory in Kentucky is illegitimate. That is not going to happen. Could you see a few of the president’s congressional sycophants go over the cliff with him? Sure. But the overwhelming majority of Republicans, confronted with the reality of a landslide defeat in the Electoral College, will realize that it’s time to see Trump out—and time to look ahead to 2024."

            Full article here:




            With 21 days until the election, it’s time to inch a little farther out on a limb.

            Comment


              I liked this piece from Open Democracy
              https://twitter.com/opendemocracy/status/1316412234629865472?s=21

              Comment


                I should know the answer to this, but in fact I don't think I do. If a president loses the election for his second term, can he run again in a future election? I'm assuming not, but I don't think I've ever heard that's the case for sure.

                Comment


                  Grover Cleveland lost in 1888, between his two wins. I don't think the 22nd amendment changed that

                  Comment


                    The 22nd Amendment only limits the number of times one can be elected. So yes, he can run again.

                    Comment


                      Cheers (or not, as the case may be!)

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                        Cheers (or not, as the case may be!)
                        Hopefully he'll be dead by 2024

                        (obviously there's also the hope here that he loses in 2020)

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                          Cheers (or not, as the case may be!)
                          It is almost inconceivable that either candidate would run in 2024.

                          Comment


                            Another state race to watch

                            https://twitter.com/michaeldobsonNZ/status/1316434108784967680

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                              This is somewhat reassuring:


                              "If...the election is a blowout, and Trump is flinging wild accusations about wide-scale fraud and deep-state conspiracies to take him down, Republicans will be forced to choose a side. They will either stand with a battered soon-to-be-former president whose days in office are numbered whether he likes it or not, or they will stand with the democratic norms that have guided the nation for 244 years.

                              There is reason to be skeptical of some of the Republicans who have enabled and justified Trump’s assault on institutions these past five years. But keep in mind: They are on the ballot, too. If Mitch McConnell agrees that Biden’s victory is illegitimate, he is making the case that his own victory in Kentucky is illegitimate. That is not going to happen. Could you see a few of the president’s congressional sycophants go over the cliff with him? Sure. But the overwhelming majority of Republicans, confronted with the reality of a landslide defeat in the Electoral College, will realize that it’s time to see Trump out—and time to look ahead to 2024."

                              Full article here:

                              I have no faith in that at all. The GOP will make up whatever version of reality they want to.

                              I don't know how or when this nightmare will end. It could go on for decades.

                              Comment


                                My instincts say that his immediate response to a defeat will be to say he'll run again. This is because it appears that the only joy he gets is from having rallies with his adoring hordes.

                                But my instincts also say that the adoring hordes will have little interest in Trump rallies once he's a dead duck, and it'll quickly become a side-show where the rest of the party quickly pretends they had nothing to do with voting for his policies or his non-judicial nominees and every one of them will have been the lone voice resisting him because they said something once (expect this in spades from Ben Sasse, Lisa Murkowski and (should they get re-elected) Lindsay Graham and Susan Collins).

                                I think having nobody come to his rallies, most Republicans shunning him, and the quick onset of highly publicised legal and financial problems will quickly end his daydream.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                                  This is somewhat reassuring:


                                  "If...the election is a blowout, and Trump is flinging wild accusations about wide-scale fraud and deep-state conspiracies to take him down, Republicans will be forced to choose a side. They will either stand with a battered soon-to-be-former president whose days in office are numbered whether he likes it or not, or they will stand with the democratic norms that have guided the nation for 244 years.

                                  There is reason to be skeptical of some of the Republicans who have enabled and justified Trump’s assault on institutions these past five years. But keep in mind: They are on the ballot, too. If Mitch McConnell agrees that Biden’s victory is illegitimate, he is making the case that his own victory in Kentucky is illegitimate. That is not going to happen. Could you see a few of the president’s congressional sycophants go over the cliff with him? Sure. But the overwhelming majority of Republicans, confronted with the reality of a landslide defeat in the Electoral College, will realize that it’s time to see Trump out—and time to look ahead to 2024."

                                  Full article here:

                                  I have no faith in that at all. The GOP will make up whatever version of reality they want to.

                                  I don't know how or when this nightmare will end. It could go on for decades.

                                  This election has made me physically ill. Really.

                                  I"m at the point of just giving up. If America goes fascist, it did it to itself so it can just fuck itself and I'll just live out my life the best I can. I'll just do my little Christian duty around town as best I can and the rest can go over a cliff.

                                  I don't know what else to do.

                                  Comment


                                    He will launch TrumpTV, just as he would had the popular vote determine the outcome in 2016.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post

                                      I have no faith in that at all. The GOP will make up whatever version of reality they want to.

                                      I don't know how or when this nightmare will end. It could go on for decades.

                                      This election has made me physically ill. Really.

                                      I"m at the point of just giving up. If America goes fascist, it did it to itself so it can just fuck itself and I'll just live out my life the best I can. I'll just do my little Christian duty around town as best I can and the rest can go over a cliff.

                                      I don't know what else to do.
                                      Hey man really it's not that bad. There's still some amazing stuff out there. (Fuck, I'll start reciting Desiderata in a minute!)

                                      Just take a look at these photographs:

                                      https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/20...d-2020/616699/

                                      https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/20...r-2020/616710/

                                      Isn't that worth saving?

                                      Comment


                                        It is worth saving. But I don't think it will be saved. The Matrix was right. We are the disease.

                                        A lot of vegans hate zoos. I don't. I think they're the only hope we have of saving a lot of species and then, maybe in the future, genetic technology will allow us to deextinct some of those species. Of course, some animals can't be properly cared for in captivity. At least not in a way that allows them to be conveniently seen by paying customers. Orca whales, for example. Possibly gorillas, tigers, lions and a few others.

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Hot Pepsi View Post
                                          It is worth saving. But I don't think it will be saved. The Matrix was right. We are the disease.

                                          A lot of vegans hate zoos. I don't. I think they're the only hope we have of saving a lot of species and then, maybe in the future, genetic technology will allow us to deextinct some of those species. Of course, some animals can't be properly cared for in captivity. At least not in a way that allows them to be conveniently seen by paying customers. Orca whales, for example. Possibly gorillas, tigers, lions and a few others.
                                          It's not only other species, most people are worth saving too. They really are, even if some days the world conspires to tell us otherwise. So is the sea breaking on the shoreline, and the wind rustling through the trees. Sure, we can fuck things up, but we can also do some pretty amazing shit on this blue marble if we set our minds to it.

                                          Comment


                                            A federal judge there has extended registration by 48 hours, I read on Twitter earlier.

                                            Comment


                                              Measure of their desperation

                                              https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1316728436661026816

                                              Comment


                                                Hasn't he stuck out a video of himself doing comedy Asian crap?

                                                Edit: Also, Twitter has suspended the official Trump campaign account for violating the rules on posting private information without consent.

                                                Comment


                                                  Twitter is treading a very debatable line right now. Not to say it isn't really funny watching a bunch of free marketeers get pissed off about a corporation doing whatever it feels like.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by caja-dglh View Post
                                                    Twitter is treading a very debatable line right now. Not to say it isn't really funny watching a bunch of free marketeers get pissed off about a corporation doing whatever it feels like.
                                                    I assume you're also thinking about the NY Post story. I agree, it's a really debatable area that Twitter and Facebook are in right now, trying to limit the spread of an article that like it or not, is from a major newspaper. If false/misleading information in a newspaper could be spread without control on a social network and they fear the consequences, then it seems that the very purpose or model of the site should be questioned rather than making yourself be a voluntary ombudsman/editor of someone else's publication.

                                                    Comment

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