Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[anton pulisov]

Probably. I mean Hillary had the 2016 election sewn up according to the polls.

[San Bernardhinault]

She didn't in the last few days - people were still interpreting months old polls as being current data. The polling in 2016 seems to have been decent. Polling nationally, and polling general elections, is notably easier than polling in Nevada, polling primaries, and in particular polling caucuses.

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/zachmontellaro/status/1229707180548513793?s=21[/URL]

[Incandenza]

I forgot to share this here earlier--Renart linked to this article on Facebook about Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University in Virginia and the Niskanen Center:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-theory-108944

She's an interesting character. I was reminded of this because I saw that she was on Michael Moore's podcast.

[Nefertiti2]

Bernie’s Foreign policy

[URL]https://twitter.com/michaelbirnbaum/status/1229717720020717571?s=21[/URL]

[anton pulisov]

[URL]https://twitter.com/zachmontellaro/status/1229707180548513793?s=21[/URL]

It was mentioned on here that candidates with <15% don't get any delegates.

If those polls hold and lets say Biden gets 14%, then you'd have to refactor the 31% of Sanders and 19% of Bloomberg to represent 100%.

So 100/(31+19) = factor of exactly 2

Sanders would then get 31*2 = 62% of the delegates vs 19*2 = 38% for Bloomberg.

Which would obviously be a very handy victory for Sanders.

[ursus arctos]

That was the rule in New Hampshire, but does NOT apply in every state

Trying to apply a national poll to the allocation of delegates among 50 states is a fool's errand

[Nefertiti2]

Especially once the Democratic National Committee has had their say.

[ursus arctos]

Just to complicate matters further. Yes.

For example, New Hampshire's 15 percent rule doesn't apply at all to the state's 9 superdelegates, who are formally uncommitted and cannot vote on the first ballot.

The primary only allocated the other 24 delegates from NH

[San Bernardhinault]

It was mentioned on here that candidates with <15% don't get any delegates.

If those polls hold and lets say Biden gets 14%, then you'd have to refactor the 31% of Sanders and 19% of Bloomberg to represent 100%.

So 100/(31+19) = factor of exactly 2

Sanders would then get 31*2 = 62% of the delegates vs 19*2 = 38% for Bloomberg.

Which would obviously be a very handy victory for Sanders.

I believe the 15% barrier applies in each state, for state level delegate allocation; and in each district for district level allocation. You can win 13% in a state and 20% in some districts and end up with some delegates.

But, yes, a fragmented moderate/billionaire/ex-Republican lane could lead to situations where Sanders with 30% of the votes gets over 50% of the delegates.

[San Bernardhinault]

Superdelegates are another matter and don't factor in at all unless nobody wins a majority of pledged delegates.

And if it comes down to Bloomberg vs Sanders, it's not as obvious which side they'd come down. If it were Biden or Warren or Klobuchar or Buttigieg against Sanders, you'd have people who've been loyal to the party, and party members, for an extended period, and you'd be able to paint that contrast as a reason to go with them. If it's Bloomberg against Sanders, you'd lose that fig-leaf.

[Incandenza]

It's interesting how Warren and media folks on twitter have been focusing on Sanders supporters as Bloomberg gains more attention and is moving up in polls.

[URL]https://twitter.com/The_Law_Boy/status/1229504957495349249[/URL]

[ursus arctos]

Mike is getting his money's worth

[Diable Rouge]

Just to complicate matters further. Yes.

For example, New Hampshire's 15 percent rule doesn't apply at all to the state's 9 superdelegates, who are formally uncommitted and cannot vote on the first ballot.

The primary only allocated the other 24 delegates from NH

When did the Democrats last have a brokered convention?

[ursus arctos]

Stevenson in 1952, though there was at least some doubt about the result in 68, 72, 80 and 84, and at this point in the process it was considered a likely result in 88 and 2008

[San Bernardhinault]

Bloomberg has qualified for the Nevada debate. If he shows up, I think he's going to get utterly crushed. Everyone is going to pile in on him. They all want to smack him down and out before Super Tuesday. And he has so many weak spots in terms of the Democratic electorate. And there's no residual affection like people have for Biden which made attacking Biden on race a potential banana skin. There's no reason to not go diving in two-footed on Bloomberg's knees.

[Nefertiti2]

The networks need him to keep spending, even more than they wanted the viewing figures Trump gave them in 2016

[URL]https://twitter.com/tomkludt/status/1229857927990738944?s=21[/URL]

[Incandenza]

Bloomberg has qualified for the Nevada debate. If he shows up, I think he's going to get utterly crushed. Everyone is going to pile in on him. They all want to smack him down and out before Super Tuesday. And he has so many weak spots in terms of the Democratic electorate. And there's no residual affection like people have for Biden which made attacking Biden on race a potential banana skin. There's no reason to not go diving in two-footed on Bloomberg's knees.

He's really an appalling person.

[URL]https://twitter.com/airwolfparade/status/1229897657658703872[/URL]

[anton pulisov]

"it"

erm ok

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/1230200399384150016?s=20

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/MattBinder/status/1230142151872458752?s=20

https://twitter.com/MattBinder/status/1228380714669871109?s=20

[Sporting]

Never heard the word "glommed" before.

[ursus arctos]

Never realised it was an Americanism, but it appears to be

[San Bernardhinault]

I thought glom was like grok - an SF neologism. But it turns out that it is a real word.

[Incandenza]

Twitter is telling me that this debate is the scene from Full Metal Jacket with Bloomberg as Pyle and Warren is every single private bearing him with a sock with a bar of soap.