Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[anton pulisov]

How about just having good policies rather than creating policies (or having candidates) theoretically aimed at one demographic. Why not assume that they're actually smart enough to support good policy, rather than assuming we have to pander to them in one way or another.

A few straw men there.

I'm quite sure the working class are smart enough to vote for for universal health care if it was offered to them.

[ursus arctos]

Explain why they re-elected governors who rejected the expansion of Medicare in several states.

[Flynnie]

Explain why they re-elected governors who rejected the expansion of Medicare in several states.

For the same reason I voted for Hillary even though she said universal healthcare was a pipe dream. She represented (just) enough of my interests in other ways that she got my vote.

On the other hand, Medicare expansion got passed in several red states this year, along with marijuana decrim or medical marijuana, ending right to work passed with flying colours in Mizzou.

The fact so-called Democratic politics are more popular than the actual party should be incredibly concerning, but no one talks about this.

[Flynnie]

The electability thing means different things to different people, of course. But I get pretty animated when people try and fight the last election, and try and fight it on the Republicans' terms. When the sole focus becomes finding ways to win white, working class, non-college educated people in 4 rust-belt states who moved from Democrat to Republican in 2016. The idea that we have to find a candidate that appeals to this group of perhaps a million people at the expense of everyone else is an idea that drives me nuts.

So when I see Ojeda's name out there purely because he's a rust-belt populist who came close-ish in a West Virginia house election, it bothers me. Fortunately, Ojeda's going nowhere. The same for Buttegieg. Sherrod Brown's hypothetical candidacy (and he's on a tour of New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, so it's not really that hypothetical) is based on exactly that metric, too: "He talks about workers, and he won in a rusty-belt state".

And, to a large extent, that's what's driving support for Biden, despite him being ancient, and despite the Anita Hill stuff. Uncle Joe Is From Scranton And Used To Get The Train remains the Biden pitch. He is supposedly the White Working Class Whisperer.

I've even heard a lot of Sanders talk based on the same thing. I think that's unfair on Sanders, whose pitch is much wider. But the media still focus on him as being able to win those working class whites, even though his support seems to come much more from millennials and the college educated.

I find this whole thing grating, and patronising, and impractical, and stupid.

Ojeda's value and/or viability rests on whether he can sell essentially social democracy to angry white guys (and/or veterans). He won't win the nomination, but if he does surprisingly well his endorsement or stumping for someone more viable will be valuable.

[anton pulisov]

A lot of the New Deal stuff was untouchable. Eisenhower and Nixon didn't go near it. It would have been political suicide. Eisenhower even made a name for himself by building publicly funded motorways linking all 50 states. It was incredibly popular. FDR took the Overton Window, loaded it into the back of the truck, and drove it 10 miles to the left.

Obama didn't have the long-term vision to see that if he had killed the filibuster and forced through universal healthcare, that the Republicans would never be able to repeal it, because it would have been so popular. Look at the main good things Obamacare brought in, the kids being on parents insurance, the preexisting thing... the Republicans haven't been able to repeal them, even with a majority. It would be political suicide.

So the question is, do the Democrats really actually want universal healthcare? They could have done it but didn't bother. So if then don't, then why should people turn out and vote for them? People aren't stupid.

[ursus arctos]

And we have our first resignation of the 116th Congress!

Two weeks into the term! During the shutdown!

It's that paragon of virtue Tom Marino of Pennsylvania, who was in line to be "Drug Czar" until it became clear that he had spent his first four terms working to weaken regulations on opioid producers.

Reed gets a special election (I think, the district boundary is very close to State College).

[San Bernardhinault]

Since the Penn supremes broke down the gerrymander and ended packing and cracking, hasn't that made the Republican districts more contiguous and therefore even more Republican? This one is surely a dead cert for whichever Republican is on the ballot, right?

It is interesting that it's happening so early in this term. I do wonder how many more Republicans might find running away to be the least bad option before 2020 comes around.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

A lot of the New Deal stuff was untouchable. Eisenhower and Nixon didn't go near it. It would have been political suicide. Eisenhower even made a name for himself by building publicly funded motorways linking all 50 states. It was incredibly popular. FDR took the Overton Window, loaded it into the back of the truck, and drove it 10 miles to the left.

Obama didn't have the long-term vision to see that if he had killed the filibuster and forced through universal healthcare, that the Republicans would never be able to repeal it, because it would have been so popular. Look at the main good things Obamacare brought in, the kids being on parents insurance, the preexisting thing... the Republicans haven't been able to repeal them, even with a majority. It would be political suicide.

So the question is, do the Democrats really actually want universal healthcare? They could have done it but didn't bother. So if then don't, then why should people turn out and vote for them? People aren't stupid.

There's another reason though for what Eisenhower did. back in 1919 he went on the U.S. Army’s Cross-Country Motor Transport Train. And he knew that much of America's road network was little better than that of Russia. It took 62 days to drive across America which is a long time even if you are stopping for speeches. Much of the journey was on unpaved roads, The Journey destroyed the vehicles, and they had to ford most rivers. He knew that America desperately needed an interstate network, and they might have another war to fight at some point. he could simply have been viewing it from a military standpoint. According to that link he used the Autobahns extensively, and had spent the 30's mapping France's roads. france has a lot of roads compared to the US.

FDR didn't move half the overton window half as much as the Second world war did. There were still plenty of people that weren't very keen on the New deal right up until the second world war kicked off, but the sort of Libertarian Wild west nonsense that a lot of people carry around in their heads went right out of fashion for a while. The US would have to spend quite a while dragging itself up through investment, because they had a cold war to win, and an empire to support, before people decided that enough of this investment, the time had come to loot everything, and base the long term strategy on inflating bubbles.

They should really have gone for Universal Healthcare. The entire economy was on the verge of collapse at the time, but the UK was properly, all out balls to the wall bankrupt when Labour set up the NHS, because they knew it was now or never.

[Lang Spoon]

Maybes if a horrible bastard like Truman hadn't been VP in the last term, maybes naw...

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

No I was thinking more about Obama. Truman was primarily tied up in converting the US economy to a peacetime footing, and building as many fucking houses as they possibly could.

[Lang Spoon]

Oh yeah, that silly goose and his bipartisan reaching out to sociopaths bollocks.

[Gerontophile]

So, why haven't I heard about Adam Schiff, and what's wrong with him? (Other than his well-ironed face, and the fact that he is a lawyer (sorry ahc, collective, et al), and that he hasn't put a foot wrong in ... ever. Oh, and he is from California. And he is too fucking intelligent, good looking and a teeny bit suave. And white bread. )

Ambition?

[ursus arctos]

Politicians without ambition are remarkably rare, but Schiff is very dedicated to the Intelligemce Committee and very good at his job in a way I would expect of a former federal prosecutor from an elite office. He will make things very uncomfortable for this administration in a rather methodical way.

if you are looking for a stick to hit him with, he was in favour of the Iraq War.

[San Bernardhinault]

There's been talk of Schiff as Pelosi's potential successor . But some Democrats are worried about the optics of replacing a California Congresswoman who represents downtown San Francisco with a California Congressman who represents West Hollywood.

[Incandenza]

Schiff's district map is pretty wild. He has West Hollywood, really run down parts of Hollywood, old money mansions in Pasadena, Glendale (probably the most Armenian city in the world outside of Armenia), the wastes along the Foothill Freeway, Sunland and Tujunga (honest to god, in my 39 years I don't think I've ever been there and have no idea what it looks like), then forest lands up to the Antelope Valley.

[San Bernardhinault]

Two 2020 stories so far today:

1 - Bob Casey is not running for President. I'm not sure why this is news, given that nobody ever thought he would be running for President

2 - More interestingly, Maryland Gov. Hulk Hogan might have a go at primarying Trump. Ben Hogan is pretty much the most popular Republican governor in the country, and is on the way moderate wing of the party. I think he has more chance of making inroads than, say, Flake or Kasich, because he's really very different to Trump on both policy and personality. If there's a big primary with multiple candidates I think that's particularly damaging for Trump, because it shows that many people think he can be overthrown.

[Incandenza]

Multiple primary challengers to Trump could be damaging to him in what way? I don't see that having any sort of electoral impact on him--the anti-Trump vote would just be split. And the supposed moderate Republican base is almost non-existent now, if not gone. Trump leads a cult of personality, his supporters will vote for him no matter what. Perhaps some of them could be brought back, but I think people's brains are gone now and there's no hope of reclaiming them.

It would be damaging for him in a symbolic sense, but jesus christ, if nothing else has had an impact so far, what would Mitt Romney or some governor that 80% of the country has never heard of running against him really mean?

[ursus arctos]

What Inca said

[San Bernardhinault]

I was thinking that it's damaging in the sense that it shows that people think he can be taken down. But I accept Inca's point - his support in the party is sufficiently monolithic that it's probably meaningless.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Any republican looking to Primary trump should watch a movie about Bobby Kennedy.

[anton pulisov]

Hulk Hogan? What about Jesse Ventura?

[ursus arctos]

He has a “reality” show on RT (Russia Today).

[jwdd27]

Latest selected odds on next US President via Oddschecker:
Trump 2/1
Kamala Harris 7/1
Beto O'Rourke 15/2
Biden 12/1
Elizabeth Warren 20/1
Sanders 25/1
Bloomberg 33/1
Pence 40/1
Hillary Clinton 50/1
Michelle Obama 66/1
Eric Garcetti 80/1
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson 80/1
Shawn Carter (Jay-Z) 100/1
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 125/1
Marshall Mathers (Eminem) 125/1
Chelsea Clinton 200/1
Ivanka Trump 400/1
Stephanie Clifford (Stormy Daniels) 500/1
Kanye West 500/1

Lots of other stupid celebrity/sports names on the list, but neither of the Trump boys, which is a surprise. Usual caveats apply, these odds reflect where money has been wagered and do not indicate actual likelihood. Having said that, Trump will likely be shorter than 2/1 if he runs so get your money down now.

[Satchmo Distel]

Any republican looking to Primary trump should watch a movie about Bobby Kennedy.

Or Teddy.

[Satchmo Distel]

IIRC Trump's odds have gone out substantially in the last 3 months. He was around 5-4 or 6-4 back then.

Is there really no other Republican except Trump in the market? He's destroyed his own party for a generation if he loses in 2020.